Global Real Estate Institute Espa

1
Global Real Estate InstituteEspaña GRI
2014Madrid 20-21 May Keynote speech Spains
ConvalescenceProf. Pedro SchwartzB.Ll., Dr.
Iuris (Madrid), M.Sc. (Econ), Ph.D. (London)
2
A weak zone
2
3
Money market interest rates
4
zone inflation (Annual changes)
4
5
Spreads against Germany
5
6
Probability of credit events
6
7
effective exchange rate
7
8
zone current account surplus
8
9
zone US stock indices
9
10
Spain was pretty sick
10
11
Spains value added in construction
11
12
Unemployment and employment rates (Spain)
13
zone unemployment
13
14
Spain bank loans
14
15
Spanish bank non performing loans
15
16
Doubtful bank assets(SAREB effect shaded area)
16
17
Spain is convalescing
17
18
Economic forecast (Spanish Government)
18
19
Foreign sector contribution to GDP growth
19
20
Competitiveness
20
21
Exports grow, more than imports
21
22
Spains current account in surplus

• In the full year 2013, the current account
  recorded a surplus of EUR 7.1 billion (equivalent
  to 0.7 of GDP), which contrasts the EUR 11.5
  billion deficit (equivalent to 1.1 of GDP)
  tallied in 2012 and marks the first surplus since
  1986
• Consensus reckons surplus to be 1.9 of GDP in
  2014
• In 2015 surplus could reach 2.2 of GDP
• (Source Focuseconomics)

22
23
Confidence returns
23
24
Low systemic risk indicators
24
25
ECB loans to banks
25
26
New credit to non-financials by Spanish banks
26
27
Spanish inflation
27
28
Spanish Budget deficit
28
29
Spanish public debt
29
30
Compared real GDP growth(? 1.4 in 2014)
30
31
pedro_at_pedroschwartz.comwww.pedroschwartz.com

• Universidad San Pablo (Madrid)

31