Voting, Elections, and Campaigns

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Voting, Elections, and Campaigns

• Chapter 9

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I. The Rules Governing American Elections

• Other nations have a system of proportional
  representation (def.) seats in the legislature
  are assigned by each partys share of the vote.
• Presidential elections in the US feature the
  Electoral College rather than the popular vote.
• In other nations, party leaders or committees
  choose the nominees.

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A. Objective 1 is to receive the partys
nomination

• How does this happen?
• In the Pres. race, she does so by getting the
  most party delegates. (Def.) whose who represent
  a states voters, in selecting the partys pres.
  candidate.
• Candidates win this support thru 2 methods the
  caucus the primaries.

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1. Caucus (def.) a small meeting where party members
   select delegates to attend the national and
   nominate a pres. candidate.
2. Primaries (def.) elections where voters choose
   the candidate to represent their party in a
   general election

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• The 1st, two such events are the Iowa Caucus
  the NH Primary. These are sometimes called
  political beauty contests as Americans get
  their first look at the candidates
• In Demo. Primaries, each candidate must receive
  at least 15 of the vote to be given delegates at
  the convention. Then the numbers are rounded
  up for those receiving gt15 and the others are
  dropped.

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• In GOP primaries, its winner-take-all. (Def.) the
  candidate who gets the most votes wins all votes
  and the others get nothing.

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Rules are different from state to state

1. Open primary (def.) a voter can vote in either
   partys primary, regardless of party
   registration.
2. Modified open primary (def.) a voter, not
   affiliated with a party can vote in either
   primary.
3. Closed primary (def.) only party members may vote
   in primary.

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• Most states have closed primaries caucuses.
• In Congressional races, the candidate must win
  the party primary with only a plurality.

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B. The nomination process has changed over the
years.

• Before 1972, primary elections were no binding on
  state delegations.
• He state party leaders were actually in control
  of the election of candidates.

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1.The Watershed Year of 1968

• Because of the upheaval of the Anti-Vietnam War
  Movement, the power of the party bosses over
  the Demo. Convention, changes were made in how
  candidates would be selected.

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2. Democratic Reforms

• A Democratic Party commission studied the problem
  of nominating the President made changes.
• Candidates would now be selected thru elections.
  The GOP did likewise.
• All delegates chosen by voters are pledged
  delegates.

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3. Super-Delegates Brokered Conventions

• The Democrats also created super-delegates, who
  were not chosen by the people.
• They were

1. DNC members
2. House Senate members
3. Sitting governors
4. Important party leaders
5. (The GOP has no super-delegates.)

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• Super-delegates are to vote like the pledged
  delegates, but if there is no clear choice for a
  candidate, it becomes a brokered-convention
  they try to choose the most elect-able
  candidate.

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More primaries, earlier primaries

• Front-loading (def.) the scheduling of
  primaries earlier in the year.
• Being later in the year could mean the number of
  necessary votes candidates have already been
  decided.
• In a try to shorten the primary calendar, many
  states hold their elections on the same day.
• Southern Democrats established Super Tuesday in
  1988. This later helped elect Clinton Gore.

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C. Who wins the general elections for Congress is
easy

• The person who gets the most votes, wins. This
  is the plurality rule. (Def) whoever receives
  the more votes than her opponents wins a
  majority is not necessary.
• In some states, there is a run-off election
  between the top two vote getters, if there is no
  majority.

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D. Presidential election rules

• Getting the majority of the popular votes doesnt
  mean that the election is won.
• The Electoral College was a compromise from the
  Constitutional Convention of 1787.
• A compromise between choosing the president by
  popular vote or by the House.

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The Electoral College

• (Def) A group of presidential electors who sat
  as the representatives of the 50 states and DC.

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1. Each state received an elector for each
   Congressman in the state 2 more for each
   Senator.
2. This plan pleased states with smaller
   populations, so they would approve the new
   Constitution!
3. The EC was seen as a group of wise men who
   could choose a president better than the masses.

1. This group would meet in their own state
   capitols, about a month after the popular
   election choose the president VP.
2. Today, nearly all states assign their elector
   votes on a winner-take-all- basis.

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• In ME NB the winner of the popular vote gets 2
  additional votes. The states popular vote winner
  is also given a vote in each Congressional dist.
  that he carried. AND each elector has his own
  vote.
• Today, there are 538 electors in the EC, one for
  each Congressman senator 3 for DC.

1. Evolution has led to the electors being chosen
   because of their loyalty to the party or
   political contribution.
2. Electors vote for their partys choice, and in
   most states are required to do so.

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II. Understanding Individual Choice
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A. The Presidential Primary

• Less is known about the choosing of candidates in
  the primaries, than the info concerning the
  general election.
• Experts pay more attention to the general
  election because of the importance of the party
  identification of the voter.
• Party ID is the most important influence on the
  outcome of the general election.

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• In the 2008 election, 89 of Demos. voted for
  Obama, 90 of the GOP voted for McCain.
• Of course, in the primary, all the voters
  belonged to the same party!

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B. Partisanship Influence

• Years ago, a study claimed that party affiliation
  is an attitude akin to a persons religion or
  race, very permanent, very slow in changing.

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1. Direction Strength of Party ID

• Direction whether one identifies more with the
  GOP or Demos.
• Strength the intensity of the attachment
• It has been seen that individuals keep their
  party ID 80 of the time.

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2. Differing views of party ID

• (Traditionalists view) Party affiliation
  simplifies beliefs/attitudes for those who pay
  little attention.
• (Revisionists view) attitudes/beliefs influence
  party ID, rather than the other way around.
• People develop their party ID first and learn to
  understand it later.

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3. Partisan change

• Party affiliation is not permanent or stable.
• This was seen in
• The switch of Southern Demos. (1960s)
• Switch in Reagan Demos. in the 1980s

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• See Fig. 9-3
• The loyal rate between both parties is not as
  strong, now.
• But not all members are loyal to their candidates
  in every election.
• Many dont consider themselves GOP or Demos.

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C. Issue Policy Preferences.

• Voters opinions can also affect the Presidential
  vote.
• This is called issue voting (def) voting that
  judges the candidate on his issues/pr3eferences
  for certain policies.

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Issue voting requires certain conditions

• Awareness of the issue and having an opinion
• The issue must be important to the voter

1. The voter must identify with the candidates
   positions accurately.
2. The voter must believe his candidate represents
   his beliefs better than the other candidate.

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1. Consistency between Issues Voter Choice

• Several studies have found that the importance
  that votes place on very important, salient
  issues.
• Although issues are often more important than the
  candidate in voters minds, the personality/
  charisma may sway ones opinion.

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2. Retrospective and prospective voting

• Voters may use prospective voting (def)judging a
  candidate on what he may do in office, if
  elected.
• But more often they stick with retrospective
  voting (def) basing vote on the past performance
  rather than promises made.

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• Retrospective voting, described by V. O. Key as
  the voter being, a rational god of vengeance and
  reward

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3. Developing positions

• One should expect more voting on issues that are
  easy to understand
• Gay marriage 2 options for or against.
• Those with multiple options are harder to
  understand

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(Example War with Iraq)

1. Keep status quo
2. More economic sanctions against Iraq
3. Support Iraq forces against Hussein
4. Renew weapon inspection programs.
5. Seek UN approval for invasion
6. A combination

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Valence issues

• (Def) issues that almost everyone agrees on.
• War vs. peace
• Less crime vs. more crime
• Low unemployment vs. high unemployment

• Past successes of parties help the voter decide
  who can best handle the problem

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D. Voters appraise candidates in 3 Big Ways

• They appraise candidates by
• Candidate ideology
• Personal assessment
• Like or dislike aspects
• Feeling thermometer (a combo of the three)

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E. The Big 3 produce a voter choice.

• Party IDs and appraisals reveal the correct
  winner 85-90 of the time.
• Issue positions party ID are both a part of the
  candidates total evolution.

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III. Understanding Election Outcomes
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• Three factors control who wins who loses an
  election in the US

1. Laws pertaining to how elections are conducted
2. How candidates wage their campaigns
3. How voters decide who to vote for

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A. Frontrunners have the advantage.

• The Pre-Primary Season
• A candidate must make a credible run in several
  states before the primary season begins.
• He must have the most money or be a frontrunner,
  or both.

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Invisible primary

• (Def) the race to raise the most become
  frontrunner, before the primary season begins.

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This has been true in the past 11 presidential
campaigns.
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2. Importance of Momentum

• (Def) the boost in media coverage, name
  recognition, fund-raising that comes with primary
  success.
• Again, this is the key importance in the Iowa
  Caucus the NH Primary.

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3. Emergence of the Frontrunner

• The frontrunner is created during the pre-primary
  period, if he/she has done well in the scores of
  primaries.
• With the net, candidates can raise quickly,
  round the clock!
• News is updated continuously on the Internet on
  24-hour news channels.

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B. Key Factors to Forecast Results.

• The experts have become very successful in
  predicting the outcome of elections, with simple
  accurate tools.

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Forecasters take into consideration 4 factors.

1. Party preferences of the voters
2. Job approval ratings of the president in office
3. Performance of the economy
4. Incumbency, if the president his party are
   running for re-election.

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• Factors will probably change sharply, affect
  the election outcome, which can be measured.
• Unless these factors are one-sided, swing voters
  still have a degree of power with the candidate.
• In other words, a candidate can still reach the
  threshold level of credibility obtain the key
  swing voting blocks.

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2. The Reward/Punishment Equation

• This equation has to do with a retrospective
  voting model recognition of political party ID
  of the voters an understanding of election
  outcomes.
• If voters are pleased with the party the old
  president, they will probably vote for the next
  pres. from the same party.
• And, if the economy has done well, the voters
  will vote for the party in power, again.

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IV. The Presidential Campaign
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A. Turnout, Loyalty, Persuasion

• To win, the following objectives must be met
• A high turnout of party supporters
• Win large share of votes from supporters

1. Encourage opposition party voters to defect
2. Reduce the turnout of the other partys voters
3. Turnout loyalty defection persuasion
   victory!

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B. Campaign Messages are Researched Targeted.

• Focus group (def) an interview with a small
  number of people representing important voter
  groups.
• After messages are delivered/tested, they go to
  battleground states. (Def) states where neither
  candidate has a big advantage.
• Un-contested states are called red states or blue
  states.

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• Red states are (def) uncontested GOP states,
  where the GOP candidate is likely to win.
• Blue states are (def) are Demo- cratic states.

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C. Field Operations

• (Def) the ground war intended to produce high
  turnout among party loyalists.
• TV/radio ads are considered the air war.
• The ground war means, getting-out-the-vote.
  This is done thru

1. Phone calls
2. Letters
3. E-mail
4. Personal visits
5. Rides to the polls

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• This is esp. true of the Demos, who try to turn
  out votes of minorities, the elderly, and other
  party loyalists.
• The GOP mobilizes the suburban whites,
  evangelical Christians other supporters.

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D. Campaign Finance Laws and

• Running a modern campaign is very expensive.
• There are 3 types of monies
• Hard money (def) for expressly running the
  campaign.
• Soft money (def) for other party purposes.
• Public money (def) taxpayer to help finance
  pres. campaigns.

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1. Hard Money

• A Person may contribute up to 2,300 for each
  primary the general election for a total of
  4600.
• One may also contribute 26,700 to each party,
  each year.
• One may also donate 5,000 or less to any
  political action committee. (PAC).

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(Definitions)

• PAC - a group funded by 50 people, affiliated
  with a special-interest group that makes
  contributions to federal candidates.
• Coordinated expenditures limited purchases made
  by the party for a specific campaign.
• Independent expenditures unlimited purchases
  made by the party, but not for a specific
  campaign.
• (See Table 9-2)

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2. Soft Money

• These are funds for purposes other than the
  election/defeat of a specific candidate.
• Before the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (2002)
  placed limits on soft money,unlimited
  contributions were permitted to political
  parties.
• Some interest groups were making contributions in
  the millions!

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• The BCRA prohibited the use of soft money for
  promoting an election or defeat of a specific
  candidate.
• A way around the ban was the use of the 527
  Committee (def) a tax-exempt, non-party group
  that raises spends unlimited sums of on
  political activities advertising.
• (See Fig. 9-7)

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3. Public Money Matching Funds.

• During the primary season, candidates for their
  partys nomination can qualify for matching funds
  (def) public money given to qualifying candidates
  to match a certain age of the funds they have
  already raised.
• There are many rules concerning the matching
  funds

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1. The candidate must raise gt5000 in single
   contributions of gt250 in at least 20 states.
2. He must follow each states spending limits.
3. She must receive gt10 of the vote in each of the
   following primaries.

1. The match will continue as long as 10 of the
   vote is maintained.
2. He/she may refuse the match and spend all of
   their own money they desire.

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• Most major candidates refuse matching funds,
  during the primaries. (Bush, 2000 2004).
• No major candidates accepted matching funds in
  the 2008 primaries.

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The Fed. government does provide financing for
the general election

• With these restrictions
• The candidates will not seek additional funds
  from any other sources.
• They will not spend more than 50,000 of their
  own money.
• They will then be able to spend any funds as they
  see fit.

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• 3rd parties may also receive these funds if they
  received at least 25 of the vote in the previous
  election.
• If this occurs, the 3rd party will receive the
  funding during that current election year, AND
  the next two election years, as well.

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