NATO

1
NATOS RESPONSE TO NEW SECURITY CHALLENGES

• Michael Rühle
• Head, Energy Security Section
• NATO Emerging Security Challenges Division
• ATHENA CONFERENCE
• Athens, 17 June 2014

2
THE HAZARDS OF PREDICTION

• Persons who pretend to predict the future shall
  be considered disorderly and will be liable to a
  fine of 300 or three months in jail.
• Old Criminal Code of New York

3
WHY PREDICTION IS NECESSARY

• My interest is in the future because I am going
  to spend the rest of my life there.
• Charles F. Kettering

4
MAJOR TRENDS (1)

• Decline in state sovereignty power shift from
  states to international or non-state networks
• Proliferation of new technologies (e.g.
  bio-technology cyber) to empower state and
  non-state actors

5
MAJOR TRENDS (2)

• New Nuclear Weapons States (real and virtual)
• Failing states as safe havens and training
  grounds for terrorist groups, pirates, drugs
• Cyber attacks (from disruption to destruction)

6
MAJOR TRENDS (3)

• Competition for scarce natural resources (energy,
  rare earths) can spark territorial conflicts
• Climate Change can cause natural disasters and
  amplify regional conflicts

7
DILEMMAS OF COLLECTIVE ACTION

• New threats may not affect all countries in the
  same way and at the same time - different degrees
  of solidarity
• Some new threats are not predominantly military
  in nature
• Responding to new threats requires civilian and
  military means

8
POLITICAL FRAMEWORK (MANDATE)

• Strategic Concept (2010)
• Devotes considerable attention to emerging
  security challenges

9
BUREAUCRATIC CHANGES

• Emerging Security Challenges Division (2010)
• Cyber defence Counter-terrorism
  WMD-non-proliferation CBRN defence Energy
  security Nuclear policy Science for Peace and
  Security Programme
• Strategic Analysis Capability Economic Security
  Assessment

10
POLICY DEVELOPMENT (1)

• Cyber Defence Policy Action Plan
• Counterterrorism Political Guidelines
• Strategic Level Policy for WMD Non-Proliferation
• Summit Progress Reports on NATOs Role in Energy
  Security

11
POLICY DEVELOPMENT (2)

• Better intelligence-sharing
• More analyses on current and future security
  risks (to stimulate Allied debate)
• Clearer direction for NATOs education and
  training efforts on emerging challenges

12
POLICY DEVELOPMENT (3)

• Incorporation of emerging challenges into NATO
  exercises
• Closer links with other International
  Organisations, NGOs, scientific community and
  private sector

13
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CHALLENGES

• Emerging challenges compete with traditional
  security issues
• Limited buy in by some Allies and NATOs
  leadership
• NATOs (military) toolbox limits its importance
  as an actor in meeting non-traditional challenges

14
THE WAY AHEAD

• Stronger reflection of emerging challenges in
  NATOs training education efforts as well as
  exercises
• More regular strategic-level discussions on
  emerging security challenges
• Enhanced connectivity of NATO with other players

15
YOU CANNOT TEACH AN OLD DOG NEW TRICKS
16
APPLYING NOAHS RULE
Predicting rain doesnt count. Building arks
does.