LESSONS%20LEARNED%20FROM%20PAST%20NOTABLE%20DISASTERS%20IRAN%20PART%203:%20EARTHQUAKES

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE
DISASTERSIRANPART 3 EARTHQUAKES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 
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IRAN
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NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN
IRAN
FLOODS
GOAL PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER
RESILIENT
LANDSLIDES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

• Planet Earths heat flow and lithospheric
  interactions cause EARTHQUAKES

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TECTONIC PLATES
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IRAN INTERACTION OF ARABIAN ANATOLIAN---EURASIAN
PLATES
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Iran has a long history of destructive
earthquakes, which have left at least 126,000
dead during the 20th and 21st centuries.
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A DISASTER is ---

• --- the set of failures that overwhelm the
  capability of a community to respond without
  external help  when three continuums 1)  people,
  2) community (i.e., a set of habitats,
  livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3)
  complex events (e.g., earthquakes, cyclones,..)
  intersect at a point in space and time.

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Disasters are caused by single- or
multiple-event natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause extreme levels of
mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness,
economic losses, or environmental impacts.
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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely
  happen

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the
  communitys buildings and infrastructure that are
  UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and
  standards will be LOST.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO
  or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic
  framework for concerted local, national,
  regional, and international actions.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to
  the full spectrum of emergency situations that
  can occur.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and
  reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from
  either the current experience or the cumulative
  prior experiences.

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TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
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ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK
RISK
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IRANS COMMINITIES
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
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CAUSES OF DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
EARTHQUAKES
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
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IRAN HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL EARTH-QUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY
  GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER
  RESILIENCE

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WHAT WILL HAPPEN?EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
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EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS MODEL
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Iran has many well-known seismically active
faults, which have generated devastating
earthquakes in recent years, including a M6.6
earthquake in 2003 that destroyed the city of Bam
and killed more than 26,000 people
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REGIONAL SEISMICITY
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LOCAL SEISMICITY
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EXPOSURE MODEL
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HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN AN EARTHQUAKE

• A communities people, property, essential and
  critical infrastructure, business enterprise, and
  government centers.

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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT
VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING
MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, OF REPLACEMENT
VALUE
INTENSITY
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VULNERABILITY MODEL
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL EARTH-QUAKES BUILDING CODES AND
  LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER
  RESILIENCE

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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL EARTH-QUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS
  ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

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SOME OF IRANS MANY NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

• M6.6 BAM DECEMBER 26, 2003
• M6.4 TABRIZ AUG. 11, 2012
• M6.3 TABRIZ AUG. 11. 2012

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BAM EARTHQUAKE DECEMBER 26, 2003
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN BEFORE EARTHQUAKE
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN BEFORE M6.6 EARTHQUAKE
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN AFTER EARTHQUAKE
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN AFTER EARTHQUAKE
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IMPACTS

• The Bam earthquake was particularly destructive,
  with 26,271 dead and 30,000 injured.

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EXACERBATING FACTORS

• Irans earthquake specialists knew that the mud
  bricks of the citadel, a historical cultural
  heritage, did NOT comply with earthquake
  regulations set in 1989, but the mud bricks, a
  fact of life, could not be adequately
  strengthened.
• .

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EXACERBATING FACTORS

• The high morbidity and mortality tolls were
  exacerbated by the fragility of the mud brick
  construction materials.

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INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCEMany nations, including
the USA, offered assistance and resources.
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TWIN MODERATE-MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES STRIKE
IRANSATURDAY, AUGUST 11, 2012
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LOCATION MAP
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THE EARTHQUAKES (Source US Geological Survey)

• Saturday's first quake of M6.4 struck just before
  5 pm 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of
  Tabriz at a depth of 9.9 km (6.2 miles).
• Saturdays second quake of M6.3 struck 49 km (30
  miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a
  similar depth.

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The earthquakes struck in East Azerbaijan
province, a mountainous region that neighbors
Azerbaijan and Armenia to the north and is
predominantly populated by ethnic Azeris, a
minority group.
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INITIAL IMPACTS

• Over 1,000 villages were affected, with over
  5,000 buildings in 100 villages partially or
  totally destroyed as concrete-block and mud-brick
  buildings collapsed.
• At least 20 villages could not be reached because
  of impassable roads.
• People in some villages were in dire need of food
  and drinking water.

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VARZAGHAN DAMAGE
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VARZAGHAN DAMAGE
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INITIAL IMPACTS

• Over 300 dead (more likely), with over 60 percent
  being women and children, partly due to the time
  of day (5 PM) that the quake struck.
• Over 1,800 injured.

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INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)

• 36,000 people in the quake-hit area were
  provided with emergency shelter.
• Many slept on the street and in parks.
• A field hospital set up in Varzaghan on Sunday to
  treat the injured was staffed by just two
  doctors, who, because of shortages of medical
  supplies and food, were hard pressed to meet the
  emergency medical needs.

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INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)

• Hospitals in Tabriz (49 km distance) took in many
  of the injured from the surrounding villages.
• Water, electricity, and phone lines in the
  Varzaghan area were all down, further hindering
  rescue efforts
• Preliminary loss estimate 650 million USD

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VARZAGHAN INITIAL S R MOSTLY BY RESIDENTS AUG
11th
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A CONTROVERSIAL DECISION

• Search and rescue was stopped after 24 hours and
  a 2-day period of mourning started

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THIS DISASTER EXPOSED POLICY FLAWS

• UNPROTECTED
• UNPREPARED
• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY

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FACT VILLAGE HOUSES WITH LITTLE OF NO
EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE COLLAPSED, INCREASINGING
DEATHS AND INJURIES

• The 5 pm occurrence) instead of a 10 pm
  occurrence) likely reduced the number of deaths.

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FACT KNOWING WHERE THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS
ARE AND BEING UNPREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE
EARTHQUAKES LEADS TO UNNECESSAY DISASTERS
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FACT EVEN THE WORLDS BEST FIRST RESPONDERS,
FIND THAT COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, IMPASSABLE
ROADS, AFTERSHOCKS, and NIGHTFALL WILL SLOW
SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS AND HINDER EMERGENCY
RESPONSE
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IRANIAN RED CRESCENT WILLING TO ACCEPT
INTERNATIONAL AID

• "We would welcome help by any country," said
  Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, during
  his visit to the earthquake-stricken area on
  Tuesday, August 14th.

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RED CRESCENT ASSETS DEPLOYED

• 1,100 Red Crescent workers were deployed with
  44,000 food packages and 5,600 tents for
  survivors needing temporary shelter.

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IRANS NEXT EARTHQUAKE IS INEVITABLE

• BUT, EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE IS NOT AN
  IMPOSSIBLE DREAM!