Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys

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Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys

• Kevin Morgan
• School of City and Regional Planning
• Cardiff University

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Overview

• Basic socio-economic trends
• Threats and opportunities
• Strategies old v new
• Scenarios awful v hopeful

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Basic socio-economic trends

• Socio-economic trends show Valleys in relative
  decline
• Valleys need to be conceived as part of a
  City-Region, but not a CITY-region
• The trends suggest the following
• The city has out-performed the Valleys
• The city needs the Valleys and vice versa
• The city cannot save the Valleys
• The city cannot thrive if the Valleys decline

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Total employment change forUK city-regions
UK City 1998 2006 Change Change
Cardiff 150,600 190,700 40,100 26.6
Newcastle-upon-Tyne 149,000 180,500 31,500 21.1
Manchester 267,900 306,100 38,200 14.3
Leeds 365,900 417,300 51,400 14.0
Glasgow City 347,200 392,800 45,600 13.1
Liverpool 202,200 226,400 24,200 12.0
Sheffield 224,000 248,600 24,600 11.0
Edinburgh, City of 278,100 306,000 27,900 10.0
Greater London 3,764,100 3,996,600 232,500 6.2
Birmingham 469,200 491,800 22,600 4.8
Bristol 220,500 229,600 9,100 4.1
Nottingham 185,500 182,400 -3,100 -1.7
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Total employment change for UK city-regions
UK City Region Geography 1998 2006 Change Change
Bristol City Region 451,800 512,700 60,900 13.5
Newcastle City Region 441,300 499,400 58,100 13.2
Cardiff City Region 534,300 595,900 61,600 11.5
Glasgow City Region 743,900 826,300 82,400 11.1
Edinburgh City Region 552,400 607,800 55,400 10.0
Sheffield City Region 652,400 710,800 58,400 9.0
Leeds City Region 1,176,300 1,274,300 98,000 8.3
Manchester City Region 1,360,300 1,466,300 106,000 7.8
Liverpool City Region 551,100 590,300 39,200 7.1
Greater London 3,764,100 3,996,600 232,500 6.2
Birmingham City Region 1,871,100 1,945,400 74,300 4.0
Nottingham City Region 323,100 332,400 9,300 2.9
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Regional hinterland share of city-region
employment growth
City Region Hinterland Hinterland Employment Growth Share of Total Employment Change
Nottingham City Region Hinterland 12,400 100.0
Bristol City Region Hinterland 51,800 85.1
Birmingham City Region Hinterland 51,700 69.6
Manchester City Region Hinterland 67,800 64.0
Sheffield City Region Hinterland 33,800 57.9
Edinburgh City Region Hinterland 27,500 49.6
Leeds City Region Hinterland 46,600 47.6
Newcastle City Region Hinterland 26,600 45.8
Glasgow City Region Hinterland 36,800 44.7
Liverpool City Region Hinterland 15,000 38.3
Cardiff City Region Hinterland 21,500 34.9
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Population change for selected areas ()
  1991-2001 2001 - 2005 1991 - 2005
Heads of the Valleys -6.9 -1.0 -7.9
Hearts Mouths of the Valleys 3.4 1.8 5.3
City, Coast Rural 3.4 1.8 5.3
South East Wales Total 0.7 1.2 1.9
Wales 1.3 1.5 2.8
United Kingdom 2.9 1.9 4.9
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Commuting flows into Cardiff
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Commuting flows out of Cardiff
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Hidden unemployment?
Parliamentary Constituency Incapacity Benefit claimants (May 2007) Incapacity Benefit claimants (May 2007)
Parliamentary Constituency 000s of working Age population Rank Hi/Lo
Glasgow North East 10.14 20 1
Liverpool Riverside 9.67 20 2
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 8.28 19 3
Rhondda 8.36 19 4
Cynon Valley 6.68 19 5
Manchester Blackley 8.68 19 6
Easington 8.75 18 7
Manchester Central 9.65 18 8
Blaenau Gwent 7.15 18 9
Aberavon 6.70 18 10
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Threats and opportunities

• Economic threats include
• high levels of economic inactivity
• very poor skill sets
• very poor connectivity
• very poor housing choice
• Social/cultural threats include
• long term limiting illness
• culture of low aspirations
• getting out/getting on

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Opportunities

• Major opportunities include
• low cost housing close to city/nature
• outstanding natural environment
• surprisingly resilient stock of social capital
• lack of civil, political religious strife

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Strategies Old problems

• Absurd polarisation of state/market public
  versus private conflict very acute in Wales
• Confusion of means/ends partnership (a means to
  an end) has been elevated into an end in itself
• Collective failure the key institutions in
  Wales (central and local government, business,
  universities etc) have failed the Valleys
• Devolution dividends limited to date by cosy
  and undemanding partnership between WAG and local
  government (symbolised by saga of performance
  improvement grant, paid when performance was bad)

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Strategies New opportunities

• More innovative strategies needed and WHQS will
  test our capacity to innovate
• Registered Social Landlords these are local
  regeneration companies in disguise
• Success will depend upon
• local management skills
• deploying the power of purchase
• crafting new supply chains
• embedding the local pound to plug the leaky bucket

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Scenario 1 The awful future
Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025
Male Female Total Change Change
Total Projection Change -19,980 -17,183 -37,163 - -11.4
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Scenario 1 Age group projections
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Scenario 2 The hopeful future
Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025 Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 2025
Male Female Total Change Change
Total Projection Change -5,913 -5,886 -11,799 - -3.61
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Scenarios awful v hopeful