Why the long view matters: social and climate change

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Climate Change and Long-term Sustainability of
Human Societies
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Why the long view matters for Sustainability,
Resilience, Policy
Margaret C. Nelson, Arizona State University
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Tapping Our Understanding of the Past

• Dynamics of climate, environment, society

Presumptions about our past climate challenge
collapse
Humans and all aspects of the global systems are
integrally linked
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Tradeoffs
No absolute resilience to climate challenges
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Uncertainty and Tradeoffs
NORTH ATLANTIC
Rare climate events have the greatest impact
directly and indirectly Successful short-term
adaptation is no guarantee of long-term success
SOUTHWEST US
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Tradeoffs - Human Securities
Human securities inform understanding of life
under different conditions No perfect
achievement of human securities they are
dynamically traded off depending on decisions
SOUTHWEST US
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Coupled Natural-Human Systems
Climate impacts on social and political
relations Climate change is inevitably a part of
complex social adaptations and the evolution of
social systems
KURIL ISLANDS
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Which climate changes matter?
MIMBRES


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Climate hazards and social longevity
CARIBBEAN
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• The past does not provide predictions for future
  courses, but it provides examples, experiments of
  sorts, by which we can critically examine our
  ideas about resilience and sustainability.

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• Case studies
• NORTH ATLANTIC ISLANDS
• Andrew Dugmore (University of Edinburgh) and
• Scott Ingram (Arizona State University)
• SOUTHWEST US
• Michelle Hegmon (Arizona State University)
• KURIL ISLANDS
• Ben Fitzhugh (University of Washington)
• CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
• Jago Cooper (University College London)
• Discussion
• Thomas McGovern (City University New York)