Application of the econometric tool in criminology

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Application of the econometric tool in criminology
Lorraine TOURNYOL DU CLOS Economist,
Paris tournyol2_at_aol.com
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3 good reasons
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3 good reasons

• Confirming the existence of a link supposed by a
  qualitative or an empirical approach

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3 good reasons

• Confirming the existence of a link supposed by a
  qualitative or an empirical approach
• Mesuring the impact of these links

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3 good reasons

• Confirming the existence of a link supposed by a
  qualitative or an empirical approach
• Mesuring the impact of these links
• Anticipating the evolution and in controlling the
  phenomenon

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3 fundamentals

• A theory (economical or empirical)
• Mathematics
• Data

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I- Theory
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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)

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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)
• Police on the streets ? Crime?
• Police on the streets ? Crime?
• Police on the streets ? Crime! !

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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)
• What do we already know? (studies)

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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)
• What do we already know? (studies)
• How can we know? (available data)

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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)
• What do we already know? (studies)
• How can we know? (available data)
• Cross-sectional data

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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)
• What do we already know? (studies)
• How can we know? (available data)
• Cross-sectional data
• Time series data

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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)
• What do we already know? (studies)
• How can we know? (available data)
• Cross-sectional data
• Time series data
• Pooled cross-sections

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I- Theory

• What do you want to know? (goals)
• What do we already know? (studies)
• How can we know? (available data)
• Cross-sectional data
• Time series data
• Pooled cross-sections
• Panel data

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II- Econometrical Study

• An example with French juvenile
• delinquency

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Available data

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Available data
• Qualitative hypothesis

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Available data
• Qualitative hypothesis
• Mathematical hypothesis

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Some results

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Some results

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Some results
• Interpretation

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Some results
• Interpretation
• What are the significant results?

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Some results
• Interpretation
• What are the significant results?
• What have we really shown?

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II- Econometrical Study

• Specification
• Some results
• Interpretation
• What are the significant results?
• What have we really shown?
• How to confirm?

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A cross-sectionnal data set back
OBSNO City Pop Police Violence Educ immig Famsize
1 Paris
2 Marseille
3 Lyon
4 Toulouse
5 Bordeaux


450 Strasbourg
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Time series data sets back
OBSNO year month Police Violence trend unemply tourism
1 1996 Jan 1
2 1996 Feb 1
3 1996 Mar 1
4 1996 Apr 1
5 1996 Jun 1

119 2005 Nov 5
120 2005 Dec 5
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Pooled Cross-sections back
OBSNO year nviolence famnum Famstruc foreign group scolfail
1 2001 4 5 1 1 1 3
2 2001 0 3 2 0 1 2
3 2001 3 1 1 1 1 0

200 2001
201 2003
203 2003

401 2003
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Panel Data sets back
OBS CITY year violence police famnum Fam_monop rforeign rscolfail
1 Paris 1995
2 Paris 1996
3 Paris 1997
4 Paris 1998
5 Paris 1999
6 Marseille 1995
7 Marseille 1996
8 Marseille 1997

1109 Strasbourg 1998
1110 Strasbourg 1999