Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

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Population Growth and Economic Development
Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

• Todaro Chapter 6
• Perkins Chapter 7

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??Introduction

• ????????????1999.10.12?60?,2050?
  93?,2200?110????90??????????????????????????,????
  ????????????????,??????????????????????????
  ??,???????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????,????????????????????????
  ??????????????????(dependency burden),??????????,?
  ??????????

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?????????????

• ???????81????,??74????????,???93(69??)???????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????,??????
  ????????
• ?????

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  ????????????,??????????????
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  ???
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• ????????????????????
• ???????????
• ????????????????????????????????

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The Basic Issue Population Growth and Quality of
Life

• Six major issues
• Will developing countries be able to improve
  levels of living given anticipated population
  growth?
• How will developing countries deal with the vast
  increases in their labor forces?
• How will higher population growth rates affect
  poverty?

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The Basic Issue Population Growth and Quality of
Life

• Six major issues (contd)
• Will developing countries be able to extend the
  coverage and improve the quality of health care
  and education in the face of rapid population
  growth?
• Is there a relationship between poverty and
  family size?
• How does affluence in the developed world affect
  the ability of developing countries to provide
  for their people?

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???????

• ????????
• ??????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????,???????????????

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????????

• 10,000BC, ????5??,
• 1AD, 2.5??
• 1950-90??,?26????53?,?????????
• Table 6.1,Fig. 6.1?
• ?????10?(1804)?20?(1927)?123?,?30?(1960)?33?,40?(
  1974),14?,50?(87),13?,60?(1999),12? (Ray (1998))?

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• ???????,?????????,??????,1970????,??1.4,????
• ????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????,???????
• Table 6.2???????????(72??)?

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A Review of the Numbers Population Growth -
Past, Present, and Future

• A brief history of human population growth

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Table 6.1
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Figure 6.1a
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Figure 6.1b
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Table 6.2
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A Review of the Numbers Population Growth -
Past, Present, and Future

• A brief history of human population growth
• Structure of the worlds population

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??????

• ????3/4??????????, ????????????,2050????????,??19
  98?12.7(7.5?)???22.4(21?),?????????88,?????????
  ??12,?Fig. 6.2?
• ????Table 6.3 ??15??????,????????????????????

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Figure 6.2
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Table 6.3
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Figure 6.3
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World Bank WDI 2002
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WDI 2004 Population 2002

• China 1,280.4Million
• India 1,048.6
• U.S. 288.4
• Indonesia 211.7
• Brazil 174.5
• Russia 144.1
• Pakistan 144.9

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??????Demographic Measures

• ????????birthrate, crude birthrate ????????
• ???,???? crude death rate????????
• ?????rate of natural increase???-???,
  ????????????????????
• ?????????40????,15????,??????1025?,???????????????
  ??39.5, 14.8, 2.47.(mid-year population(1000102
  5)/21012.5

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• ????72?????X??
• ????????????????????????????????Age structure and
  age-specific fertility death rate.
• ?????????????????????Infant Mortality (at birth
  under-5)
• ????life expectancy. ?????????????????????????????
  
• ???Fertility rate???????????????????????????

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???????

• ??????????????
• ??????-???
• ???????????????????,??????????????,? Fig. 6.3?
• ????????????????????,???????????????
• ??20????????????????,?Table 6.4
• ????????????????53?,?Table 6.5

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Figure 6.4
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Table 6.4
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Table 6.5
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Population 1980 2002 2015
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?????????

• ?????????,???????????????15?????????40
  (??????20),??????(youth dependency
  ratio)15???????/????(15-64?) ???,????????????????
  ????

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A Review of the Numbers Population Growth -
Past, Present, and Future

• A brief history of human population growth
• Structure of the worlds population
• The hidden momentum of population growth

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??????????(hidden momentum)

• ?????????,?????????????????????
• ??????????
• ???????????Fig. 6.4,1998?????,??????????

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Figure 6.5
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Figure 6.6
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• ?????????????????50,????????,????????????,???????
  ?????????(??????4???????),??????????????????,?????
  ???Fig. 6.5 ?4????????????????
• ????????,??????????????????,?????????,?????????

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The Demographic Transition

• Stage I high birthrates and death rates
• Stage II continued high birthrates, declining
  death rates
• Stage III falling birthrates and death rates,
  eventually stabilizing

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????(demographic transition)

• ????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????
• Fig 6.6???????
• 1800-1840.?????????????,??????????????
• 1840-1900???????,?????????????????,?????,?????40??
  ?60???????????,???????
• 1900-2000???????????,???????

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Figure 6.7
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Figure 6.8
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• ???????1950?????????????????,?????,???????????????
  ?????????
• ???????1950-60??,???????????????,??????????,???2-2
  .5??????
• ??????A, B ????(?Fig. 6.7)

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• ??A????????1,??????2-3,????????????????????????
  ??,????????????1980-90??,?????????????????????????
  ????????????????????,?????????????
• ??B ????????,????????????????,???????????????????
  ???????????????,??????????,??????????????????,????
  ????

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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries The Malthusian Model

• The Malthusian population trap

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????????????

• ?????????(The Malthusian and Household Models)
• ????????(Malthusian Population Trap)
• ??????????
• ????????????(The Microeconomic Household Theory
  of Fertility)
• ?????????
• ?????????????
• ??????????

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????????(Malthusian Population Trap)

• ??????(1766-1834)?1798????????????????,???????????
  ?,?30-40???,???????????????,?????????,????????????
  ? ?????,?Fig. 6.8

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• Y0????????,?????,????,?????????,?????,???????,????
  ????????Y2?????(3.3)?????,?????????????????????,?
  ???????,??????Y5??????????????????????

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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries The Malthusian Model

• The Malthusian population trap
• Criticisms of Malthus model

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??????????

• ????????????,???????????????????????????????,?????
  ???????,?????????????,????????,?Fig. 6.9?
• ??????????????????????????????????????????,?Fig.
  6.10?
• ??????????????????,????,??????????????

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Figure 6.7
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Figure 6.8
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Figure 6.10
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Figure 6.11
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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries The Household Model

• The microeconomic household theory of fertility

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????????????(The Microeconomic Household Theory
of Fertility)

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????,??????????????????

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• ?????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????(????????????)?
• ?????????????????????,????????,???????????????????
  ????????????,????????????????????,? Equation 6.1?

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• Fig. 6.11,??????,??????????,??????????????????????
  ?????? ????ab?????I2??f???????ab?,?????I4?h?????
  ???????

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Demand for Children Equation
Where Cd is the demand for surviving children Y
is the level of household income Pc is the net
price of children Px is price of all other
goods tx is the tastes for goods relative to
children
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Demand for Children Equation
Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect
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Gary Becker New Household Economics (Perkins
pp264)

• ???????,?????????????????,???????????(goods)?
• ???
• ?????(???????)
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• ??
• ???????

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• Becker?????????????,????????????,?????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????,???????????????,??????????
• ????????????????,????Becker??????Becker??????(tast
  es)????

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Richard Easterlin (U. Penn????)

• ????????????
• ????????(fertility control)??
• ??????,????????????????,??????????????????????????
  ?????
• ????????????????,???????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????

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The Causes of High Fertility in Developing
Countries The Household Model

• The microeconomic household theory of fertility
• The demand for children in developing countries
• Some empirical evidence
• Implications for development and fertility

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The Consequences of High Fertility Some
Conflicting Opinions

• Population growth isnt a real problem

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  ???????
• ????????????????????
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• ??????????

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?????????????

• ????????,???????,??
• ????
• ?????????????????????25?????80???(Table 6.6)?
• ???????
• ??????

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• ??????????????? ?????????
• ?????
• ?????????????????????????
• ????????????????(neo-Marxist pronatalists)
• ?????????????????????

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The Consequences of High Fertility Some
Conflicting Opinions

• Population growth isnt a real problem
• Overpopulation is a deliberately contrived false
  issue
• Population growth is a desirable phenomenon
• Population growth is a real problem
• The empirical argument the negative consequences
  of population growth

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??????????

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• ??????-??????????????????????????,???????????
• ????

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• ????????????90?????????
• ???????????
• ??????

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Goals and Objectives Toward a Consensus

• Despite the conflicting opinions, there is some
  common ground

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?????????

• ???????????????,?????????????
• ?????????????
• ????????????????(Robert Cassen)?
• ????

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• ?????????????????????,????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????,???????????????,?????,???????
  ????
• ????????????????,???????????????????????,?????????
  ???????

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• ????????????????????,???????????,???????????
• ??????????????????,??????,???????,????????????????
  ?????????????(space)??????????

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Some Policy Approaches

• What developing countries can do

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?????????(goals and objectives)

• ????????????????????,????????????????,????????????
  ???????????????????(?????)????????????????????????
  ????????????????????(family size)?

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• ??????(family planning projects)??????????????????
  
• ??????????????????????????,?????????????????,?????
  ????????,????????????????????????

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???????

• Perkins Population and Family Planning in
• Kenya
• China
• Indonesia
• ??????????,????????????????????????????????????(fe
  rtility)???????????????????????????????????????,??
  ?????,??????????

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Some Policy Approaches

• What developing countries can do
• What the developed countries can do resources,
  population, and the global environment
• How developed countries can assist developing
  countries

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????

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• ??????????????????????????????(?????)????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????

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??????????????

• ????,??????????
• ??????????????
• (Table 6.7????)?
• ???????????????,??????????,??????????????
• ??????,???????????????,??????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????
• ?????????????1994 ????????

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Table 6.6
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Concepts for Review

• Birthrate
• Death rate
• Demographic transition
• Doubling time
• Empowerment of women
• Family-planning programs

• Fertility
• Hidden momentum of population growth
• Infant mortality rate
• Life expectancy at birth
• Malthusian population trap

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Concepts for Review, contd

• Microeconomic theory of fertility
• Mortality
• Natural increase
• Net international migration
• Population-poverty cycle
• Population pyramid

• Positive checks
• Preventative checks
• Rate of population increase
• Reproductive choice
• Total fertility rate
• Youth dependency ratio

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Homework

• ?????????http//www.aw-bc.com/todaro_smith/
• Review Todaro, Ch. 6 (Population)
• PP307-308??
• Preview Chapter 8 Education and Health.