New challenging issues : Strategies for the EC-Turkey Customs Union

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New challenging issues Strategies for the
EC-Turkey Customs Union

• Patrick A. Messerlin
• Groupe dEconomie Mondiale (GEM)
• Yeditepe University
• Economic Development Foundation
• Istanbul 14-15 May 2010

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Overview

• Assessing the situation the global environment.
• Assessing the situation the TC-Turkey Customs
  Union (ECTCU).
• Options for strategies (for the next 5 years).

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Global environment (1/3)

• Trade back on track.
• Trade regime resilient WTO, but uncertainty on
  the Doha Round.
• Macroeconomic situations worrisome in the EC.
• Global governance diminishing vs. emerging giant
  syndromes.
• Domestic governance tyranny of tiny majorities

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Global environment (2/3)
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Global environment (3/3)
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ECTCU environment the EC (1/2)

• The EC needs a drastic review of the following
  assumptions
• The bigger, the better.
• Internal Market and the acquis communautaire.
• The euro as the discipline, regulatory
  reforms.
• Institutional structure.
• Time to value our neighbors.

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ECTCU environment the EC (2/2)

• Does the acquis delivers?

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ECTCU Environment Turkey

• The functioning of the ECTCU
• The Global Europe strategy and Turkey
• Turkey and the core emerging economies

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Options for strategies the EC

• Would the EC be an active partner vis-à-vis
  Turkey? Doubtful.
• Need for a drastic review.
• Deep shocks from the financial crisis.
• Crisis concentrated on Mediterranean EC Member
  States.
• Volatile Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia gt no
  Ostpolitk.
• Focus on Balkans small but very difficult.

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Options for strategies Turkey (1/2)

• Are stricter international rules the solution?
  Doubtful at time of tectonic shifts in
  international relations.
• The best EC Member State policy
• Industrial goods
• Turkish trade policy (tariffs, AD)
• Bilaterals expand in Balkans consolidate the
  other existing bilaterals in one FTA develop the
  maximum tariff approach with ECOTA.

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Options for strategies Turkey (2/2)

• Farm and food products (FTA option)
• Farm products.
• Food products and fisheries.
• Services mutual evaluation (Services
  Directive)
• Use the acquis for reviewing its own laws take
  the pro-competitive provisions, screen between
  norm-setting provisions (cost-benefit analysis).
• A plurilateral approach?
• An approach beneficial for the EC itself.

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Thank You for Your Attention