Convention%20on%20Long-range%20Transboundary%20Air%20Pollution

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Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air
Pollution

• Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling
• 31st and 32nd meeting
• 8-9 December 2005, Gothenburg, Sweden
• 17-19 May, Rome, Italy

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
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• Review of the Gothenburg protocol
• Prepare for the revision of the protocol

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1. Review what has changed?

• New Eulerian dispersion model
• Ecosystem dependent deposition rates
• Sensitivity of ecosystems, ozone flux approach
• Health effects of particles and ozone
• Emission estimates
• New (national) projections, time horizon 2020
• Effects of existing control options (cycle
  bypassing)
• Increased potential of cost-effective measures
  due to linkages with climate policy,
  non-technical local measures and measures for
  ships

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Preliminary conclusion TFIAM32

• Emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC declined
• Current policy efforts are no-regret, but
• The Gothenburg Protocol is not sufficient to meet
  the original ambitions regarding the long term
  protection of ecosystems and health

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Unprotected Ecosystem-area (nitrogen) -
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Factors changing ecosystem risk estimates
Goth Protocol
Updated CL
50 50 km

Exceedance of CLnut in 2010
Eulerian model
Ecosyst. spec. dep.
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Trends in unprotected ecosystem area ()
1990 1995 2000 2004 2010GP
Acidification Acidification Acidification Acidification Acidification Acidification
EU25 39 27 23 15 16
EMEP 41 19 15 10 11
Eutrophication Eutrophication Eutrophication Eutrophication Eutrophication Eutrophication
EU25 81 74 75 66 64
EMEP 66 54 50 47 48
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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GP knowledge days with ozone above 60 ppb ?
Problem for Northwestern central Europe
2010
1990
1990
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Current knowledge SOMO35 ppb.days ? problem in
Southern Europe
2000 2010
2020
Sum Of Mean Ozone values over 35 ppb in rural
areas
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Effect of hemispheric ozone increases the
challenge
No increase
Expected increase
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Increasing importance of ship emissions
Contribution of SOx from shipping to deposition
of S
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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Emission factors cars higher than expected
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With CLE emissions significantly decrease, with
the exception of NH3 and CO2
EU25, Primes projection
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Remaining problem areas in 2020 Eutrophication
remains wide scale problem
Forests acid dep
Healthvegetation - ozone
Vegetation N dep
Semi-natural acid dep
Freshwater acid dep
Health - PM
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2004 - Distance to Target NOx
Preliminary data !
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
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To do list

• Improve update national emissions projections
• Non EU-countries
• What control measures are envisaged and when?
  (TFEIP)
• Write TFIAM background document to the official
  review report
• Same structure, including figures 4
  additional items
• Add para. on policy development in EU to
  TFIAM-document
• Describe the quality of models used based on
  reviews
• Explore new knowledge on damage to materials
• Discuss costs and benefits of Gothenburg Protocol
  ?

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2. Preparations for revision of the Protocol

• Modelling particulate matter
• Local air pollution modelling (TFMM)
• Update MFR, including emerging technologies
  non-technical measures
• Inclusion of GHG abatement measures ? GAINS
• Options for target setting robustness of
  strategies

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Towards robust strategies uncertainty analysis
RAINS emission estimates vs. national
inventories, 2000
SO2
NOx
VOC
NH3
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Uncertainties for PM are much larger! RAINS
emission estimates vs.national inventories, 2000
PM10
PM2.5
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Workshop on Non-Technical Measures

• NTMs have advantages, they
• can have a significant and rapid effect on
  emissions
• do not assume speculative technological
  development
• often do not have negative environmental side
  effects
• can have low or net negative direct costs
• NTMs have disadvantages, they
• require visible changes in behaviour that will
  generally be resisted by consumers, whereas most
  technical emission control measures (catalytic
  converters, loft insulation) are virtually
  invisible to the consumer
• TMs, if based on standards, have a fairly
  predictable easily calculated effect on future
  emissions. NTMs are more uncertain.
• have indirect costs that are difficult to
  quantify

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Non-Technical measures in the transport sector

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MFR including non-technical measuresemissions
of nitrogen oxides (Mark Barrett- Senco)
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CO2 mitigation options in GAINS

• Power plants
• Fuels shift to natural gas and renewables
• Co-generation
• Carbon capture and storage
• Transport
• Hybrid cars
• Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen)
• Industry
• End-use savings (including CHP)
• Fuel shifts
• Domestic
• Insulation
• Solar, biomass
• Fuel shift to natural gas
• Savings for appliances and lighting

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15 CO2 reduction by 2020 will also reduce air
pollution
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Principles for target setting (TFIAM 31)

• Long term objective is achieving critical loads
  no-effect levels
• An effect-based approach has to achieve actual
  environmental improvements in a cost-effective
  way taking into account the distribution of costs
  and benefits among parties
• The appropriate scaling of the gap is a policy
  choice
• For CAFE, scaling the gap between 2000 and
  no-effect levelswas found problematic
• No evidence for no-effect thresholds for health
  impacts
• Limited scope for improvements in (clean)
  countries at the margin of the EU prevent
  measures at highly polluted places.
• As a pragmatic interim approach, CAFE scaled the
  gap between the impact indicators calculated for
  Baseline 2020 and MTFR,
• while working on extension of MFR with
  GAINS-measures and introducing dynamic effects
  modelling for priority setting.

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Target setting uniform reduction shows
limited scope for overall reduction of
PM-effects
PM-exposure in 2020 (2000 100)
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Meetings

• 30-31 October 2006 (Thessaloniki)
• TFEIP/TFIAM Workshop on Emission
  Projections
• 16-17 November (Laxenburg)
• TFIAM/TFMM Workshop on Urban Air Pollution
• Modelling
• 14-15 November (Laxenburg)
• Drafting group TFIAM review report
  (Informal)
• 2-4 May 2007 (Prague)
• TFIAM 33 (finalize review report)
• ??
• Tutorial session on GAINS-model (Informal)