Applying Population Ecology:

1
Chapter 9

• Applying Population Ecology
• The Human Population and Its Impact

2
Is the World Overpopulated?

• Much of the worlds population growth occurs in
  developing countries like China and India. The
  worlds population is projected to increase from
  6.6 billion to 8.9 billion between 2006 and 2050.

Figure 9-1
3
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTHA BRIEF HISTORY

• The human population has grown rapidly because of
  the expansion of agriculture and industrial
  production and lower death rates from
  improvements in hygiene and medicine.
• In 2006, the population of developed countries
  grew exponentially at 0.1 per year.
• Developing countries grew (15 times faster at
  1.5 per year.

4
Demographic Facts

• The nations that will experience the most growth
  over the next 50 years , in order
• India
• China
• Pakistan
• Nigeria
• Bangladesh
• Indonesia

• 5 most populated countries, in order (2004)
• China
• India
• U.S.
• Indonesia
• Brazil

5
Where Are We Headed?

• U.N. world population projection based on women
  having an average of 2.5 (high), 2.0 (medium), or
  1.5 (low) children.

Figure 9-2
6
Declining Fertility Rates Fewer Babies per Woman

• The average number of children that a woman bears
  has dropped sharply.
• This decline is not low enough to stabilize the
  worlds population in the near future.
• Replacement-level fertility the number of
  children a couple must bear to replace
  themselves.
• Total fertility rate (TFR) the average number of
  children a woman has during her reproductive
  years.

7
Fertility Rates

• The replacement level to sustain a population is
  2.1 children.
• In 2006, the average global Total Fertility Rate
  was 2.7 children per woman.
• 1.6 in developed countries (down from 2.5 in
  1950).
• 3.0 in developing countries (down from 6.5 in
  1950).

8
Fertility and Birth Rates in U.S.

• Nearly 2.9 million people were added to the U.S.
  in 2006
• 59 occurred because of births outnumbering
  deaths.
• 41 came from illegal and legal immigration.
• total fertility rate in the United States was
  slightly gt 2.0

9
Fertility and Birth Rates in U.S.

• The baby bust that followed the baby boom was
  largely due to delayed marriage, contraception,
  and abortion.

Figure 9-6
10
47 years
Life expectancy
77 years
8
Married women working outside the home
81
15
High school graduates
83
1900 vs. 2000
10
Homes with flush toilets
98
2
Homes with electricity
99
10
Living in suburbs
52
1900
Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for
inflation)
3
2000
15
1.2
Homicides per 100,000 people
5.8
Fig. 9-7, p. 176
11
Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates

• The number of children women have is affected by
• 1) The cost of raising and educating them.
• 2) Availability of pensions.
• 3) Urbanization.
• 4) Education and employment opportunities (the
  importance of child and/or woman as part of labor
  force).
• 5) Infant deaths.
• 6) Marriage age.
• 7) Availability of contraception and abortion.

12
Factors Affecting Death Rates

• Death rates have declined because of
• 1) Increased food supplies, better nutrition.
• 2) Advances in medicine.
• 3) Improved sanitation and personal hygiene.
• 4) Safer water supplies.
• U.S. infant mortality is higher than it could be
  (ranked 46th world-wide) due to
• 1) Inadequate pre- and post-natal care for poor.
• 2) Drug addiction.
• 3) High teenage birth rate.

13
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

• Populations with a large proportion of its people
  in the preproductive ages (1-14) have a large
  potential for rapid population growth.

Figure 9-9
14
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

• 32 of the people in developing countries were
  under 15 years old in 2006 versus only 17 in
  developed countries.

Figure 9-10
15
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

• Today, baby boomers make up nearly half of all
  adult Americans and dominate the populations
  demand for goods and services.

Figure 9-11
16
INFLUENCING POPULATION SIZE

• Demographic Transition As countries become
  economically developed, their birth and death
  rates tend to decline.
• Preindustrial stage little population growth due
  to high infant mortality.
• Transitional stage industrialization begins,
  death rates drops and birth rates remain high.
• Industrial stage birth rate drops and approaches
  death rate.
• Post-industrial stage birth rates continue to
  drop may enter negative population growth

17
Demographic Transition Model
1 Preindustrial
2 Transitional
3 Industrial
4 Post- industrial
18
SOLUTIONS INFLUENCING POPULATION SIZE

• Women tend to have fewer children if they are
• Educated.
• Hold a paying job outside the home.
• Do not have their human rights suppressed.
• The best way to slow population growth is a
  combination of
• Investing in family planning.
• Reducing poverty.
• Elevating the status of women.

19
GROWTH IN INDIA AND CHINA

• For more than five decades, India has tried to
  control its population growth with only modest
  success.
• Since 1970, China has used a government-enforced
  program to cut its birth rate in half and sharply
  reduce its fertility rate.

20
Percentage of world population
India
17
20
China
1.1 billion
Population
1.3 billion
1.4 billion
Population (2050) (estimated)
1.6 billion
47
Illiteracy ( of adults)
17
36
Population under age 15 ()
20
1.6
Population growth rate ()
0.6
2.9 children per women (down from 5.3 in 1970)
Total fertility rate
1.6 children per women (down from 5.7 in 1972)
58
Infant mortality rate
27
62 years
Life expectancy
70 years
Percentage living below 2 per day
80
47
3,120
GDP PPP per capita
5,890
Fig. 9-15, p. 186
21
Indias Failed Family Planning Program

• Poor planning.
• Bureaucratic inefficiency.
• Low status of women.
• Extreme poverty.
• Lack of administrative financial support.
• Disagreement over the best ways to slow
  population growth.

22
Chinas Family Planning Program

• Currently, Chinas TFR is 1.6 children per women.
• China has moved 300 million people out of
  poverty.
• Economic incentives, free medical care,
  preferential treatment has helped.
• Problems
• Strong male preference leads to gender imbalance.
• Average population age is increasing.