Political Influences

1
Political Influences

• Political Culture
• Public Opinion
• Voting and Elections

2
Political Culture

• Relationships within a culture
• Consensual some conflict between ideas
• Conflictual opposing belief systems clash with
  each other

3
Core Values

• Liberty (Thomas Jefferson and Locke)
• Equality (social, political and opportunity)
• Individualism (rugged, common sense, choice and
  limits)

• Democracy (majority rules with minority rights)
• Rule of Law (vs. rule of the individual)
• Civic Duty

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Changing values

• Capitalism FDR and the 2nd bill of rights
• Free Enterprise
• Political Tolerance
• Mistrust (increased since the 1960s, internal
  efficacy - take part external efficacy govt
  will respond to needs)
• The isms liberal, conservative, communist,
  socialism, libertarian, etc.

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What is Public Opinion?

• The distribution of individual attitudes about a
  particular issue, candidate, political
  institution, etc.
• Many Publics not just one
• George Gallup
• Gallup Polls started in 1932
• 1st pollster
• Agency has only picked one general election
  result incorrectly since the year 1936

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Public Opinion

• Measurement of
• Straw Vote Polls (quantity is more important than
  the quality)
• Call in votes (American Idol, Americas Got
  Talent),
• Scientific (quality is more important than
  quantity)
• This is what we generally see done today
• Gallup Poll, Harris Poll, CBS News/USA Today polls

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Steps to a Good Public Opinion Poll

• Define the universe (everyone that is to be asked
  the questions)
• Create a sample (random, quota,census tract, etc
  only 1500 needed for US)
• Questions created (yes/no the best)
• How to ask the questions? (face to face, phone,
  etc)
• Tabulate the results (sampling error /- 3 points
  the maximum for a good result)

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Characteristics of a poll

• Intensity how strong are the feelings for the
  issue?
• Latency is it a visible or hidden question?
• Salience what relevance does it have to me?
• Consensus v. Polarization
• Fluidity- how likely is the opinion to change
  within the time frame

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Polling Bias Types

• Testimonials Implied endorsements from
  celebrities
• Mudslinging Name calling or groundless
  assertions about another candidate (negative
  advertising tends to have more watchers)

10
Polling Bias Continued

• Transfer Use of popular symbols or causes to
  create a positive connotation for a candidate or
  the use of negative or controversial symbol and
  cause to create a negative connotation of the
  competitions candidate

American Supporter
Unamerican hearings
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Bias in Polling

• Cardstacking Use of statistics in a one sided
  manner the omission of information that is
  crucial to drawing an informed conclusion
• Glittering Generalities use of very vague words
  or phrases that may have a positive effect on the
  viewer and appeal to a variety of interests.

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Your Public Opinion how formed?

• Political socialization the process by which
  attitudes are shaped and passed from generation
  to generation
• Cradle to Grave
• Never Ending
• Factors that influence a persons opinion
• People in different social groups tend to share
  certain opinions group identification

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Family as an agent

• Number One influence of political attitude
• Very strong correlation for Political Party
  support
• More often associated with economic issues (the
  pocketbook issues)

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Gender as an agent

• Examples
• More men support the military
• More women consider sexual harassment a serious
  issue/problem
• Women tend to vote Democratic more often whereas
  men tend to vote Republican more often
• Abortion issues, death penalty issues
• Gender Gap issue

15
Religion as an agent

• Example
• Protestants are more conservative on economic
  matters than Catholics or Jews
• Jews tend to be more liberal on economic and
  social issues than Catholics or Protestants
• Catholics tend to be more liberal on economic
  issues than they are on social issues (Catholics
  are becoming more conservative)m

16
Education as an agent

• Example
• Higher education more conservative, but while
  attending college you tend to be more liberal
• Conflicting results not the best correlation
• Regular School we try to teach the values of
  education and the nation (think about history
  classes and civics)

17
Social Class as an agent

• Blue Collar (laborer) typically votes
  Democratic
• White Collar (management) typically votes
  Republican
• Relationship is becoming less clear
• Hourly wage earners v. salaried
• Low income v. Higher income play a part in the
  voting

18
Race and Ethnic Background

• Examples
• 90 of African Americans vote Democratic
• Hispanic Americans tend to affiliate with the
  Democrats, but less than African Americans
• Asian Americans less liberal than Hispanic
  Americans or African Americans but still vote
  consistently Democratic
• White, more divided, tends to flucuate by the
  election (economy)

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Geographic region

• Examples
• East and West Coast tend to be more liberal
• Mid West more conservative
• Urban more liberal
• South 1870 through 1950s Democrat Solid
  South but today primarily social conservatives
• White Southerner less liberal

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Public Opinion

• Political Ideology
• Coherent and consistent set of political beliefs
  about who ought to rule, the principles that the
  rulers need to obey and what policies rulers
  ought to pursue.
• Changes over time
• Liberal and Conservative have different meanings
  depending on historical time

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Factors That Determine Placement

• Two major factors shape political views.
• The first is how much change a person is willing
  to have within their society and government.
• The second deals with how much government
  involvement in the economy a person calls for.
• Others also bring in the question of how much
  freedom from government authority a leader is
  willing to give the people.

22
Political Labels

• To see where you stand, you would have to figure
  out where you stand on a number of social
  (people-related), economic (money-related), and
  political (governmental) issues.
• First you need definitions of the terms radical,
  liberal, conservative, and reactionary. Some
  authors include the terms authoritarian and
  libertarian.

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What is a Radical?

• Seen as being on the far left of the political
  spectrum, radicals call for wide-sweeping rapid
  change in the basic structure of the political,
  social, or economic system.
• They may be willing to resort to extreme methods
  to bring about change, including the use of
  violence and revolution.

V.I. Lenin Mastermind of the Russian Revolution
and Father of the Soviet Union
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What is a Liberal?

• Liberals believe that the government should be
  actively involved in the promotion of social
  welfare of a nations citizens.
• They usually call for peaceful, gradual change
  within the existing political system.
• They reject violent revolution as a way of
  changing the way things are, often called the
  status quo.

Dr. Rev. Martin Luther King
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What is a Moderate?

• Moderates may share viewpoints with both liberals
  and conservatives.
• They are seen as tolerant of other peoples
  views, and they do not hold extreme views of
  their own.
• They advocate a go-slow or wait-and-see
  approach to social or political change.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) is generally seen as a
moderate.
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What is a Conservative?

• People who hold conservative ideals favor keeping
  things the way they are or maintaining the status
  quo if it is what they desire.
• Conservatives are usually hesitant or cautious
  about adopting new policies, especially if they
  involve government activism in some way.
• They feel that the less government there is, the
  better.
• They agree with Jeffersons view that the best
  government governs least.

Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) is widely regarded as
the father of the modern conservative movement
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What is a Reactionary?

• Sitting on the far right of the ideological
  spectrum, reactionaries want to go back to the
  way things werethe good ol days. Often
  reactionaries are willing to use extreme methods,
  such as repressive use of government power, to
  achieve their goals.
• The term reactionary is generally negative. A
  positive way to say the same thing is
  arch-conservative.

Hitlers Mein Kampf is a typical reactionary
manifesto
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Liberal v. Conservative

• Liberal
• Health care to ordinary people national system
• Cure the economic and social causes of crime.
• Regulate business for public interest
• Spend less on military
• Tax rich more, reduce the inequality in income
• Help the poor through employment

• Conservative
• Private insurance for health care
• Punish not coddle the criminals
• Businesses allowed to operate under free market
• Spend more on military
• Taxes should be kept low
• People responsible for their own well being
  welfare takes away incentives to take care of
  themselves

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How ideological are Americans?

• 1950 study The American Voter
• 4 basic types of voters
• Ideologues 12 of people connect their opinions
  to party lines
• Group benefits voters 42 of people connect
  their opinion to their group (labor union,
  interest groups, class, race)
• Nature of the Times Voter 24 - economic good
  times and bad times
• No issue content 22 - no reason for the way
  they voted in an election (think now about looks,
  how they sound, personal characteristics of the
  candidate)

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Political Spectrum
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The Political Spectrum
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American Politicians on the Spectrum

• Here is how one website places important American
  political figures on the spectrum.You can take
  the quiz athttp//www.madrabbit.net/webrabbit/qui
  zshow.html

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Where leaders stand on the political spectrum?
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Political Participation

• Amendments
• 15th all males
• 19th females
• 23rd residents of DC
• 24th no poll tax
• 26th lowered age to 18

• Laws
• Voting Rights Act of 1965 (extended in 1970, 1975
  and 1982)
• Motor Voter Law 1993 made registration easier
  for all those wanting to vote

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Supreme Court involvement in Voting

• Oregon v.Mitchell no literacy tests
• SC v. Katzenbach Voting Rights Act
  constitutional
• Gomillion v. Lightfoot no gerrymandering
• Smith v. Allwright no all white primaries
• Harper v Virginia Board of Elections no poll
  tax for state elections
• Guinn v. United States no racial
  gerrymandering
• Dunn v.Blumstein no more than 30 days for
  residency for registering to vote

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Who votes?

• Voters tend to be
• Higher educated
• Higher income
• Employed, government employees
• Older
• Midwestern section
• Caucasians
• Presidential Elections
• General Elections

• Those that tend not to vote
• Satisfied with the government
• Apathy
• Predictions already made
• Too many offices
• Timing day of the week
• Role of the Political Parties

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Reasons for voting

• Sociological
• Income - higher
• Occupational skilled
• Education higher
• Gender males
• Age older
• Religion church goers
• Ethnic

• Psychological
• Party identification (number one reason) long
  term
• Decreasing due to the number of increasing
  independents and split ticket voting
• Candidates and Issues
• Short term
• Image
• Pocket book

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Most common forms of participation

• Watch Television
• Voted
• Influence somehow
• Political Meeting
• Work for candidate
• Give money

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Election participation

• 2000 participation
• 82 watched the campaign on tv
• 73 voted in the election
• 34 tried to influence others how to vote
• 10 put a sticker on their car
• 9 gave money to help a campaign
• 5 attended a political meeting
• 3 worked for a party or candidate
• Is this true? 73 of people voted - NO

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Types of voting

• Straight ticket voting vote for one party and
  only one party
• Split Ticket voting switch between parties for
  different offices
• Prospective voting what promises have been made
• Retrospective voting record of candidates
• Ballot fatigue vote for a few offices, but get
  too tired to finish the entire ballot

41
Elections in the United States

• Function
• Determine the leaders and the policies to be
  followed
• Legitimacy of the issues, plans
• Role of the party is a label

42
The winner take all system

• In order to win an election, you need to win only
  a plurality (the most) of the votes
• Versus
• Proportional Representation
• Single Member Districts

43
Types of elections

• Nomination Phase Step One
• Self announcement
• Primary and Caucus
• Open v. closed v. Blanket
• Presidential v. Congressional
• National v. Regional
• Role of incumbency and lame duck
• Coattail effect
• Every two or four years

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Campaigns and Elections

• How the president, and members of Congress are
  actually elected to office?

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Function of the Election

• Choose over 500,000 public roles
• Contest between political parties (general
  election interparty fight)
• Winner take all the person with the most votes
  (plurality) not 50 (majority) wins the seat
• Plurality v. majority
• Single member districts one representative per
  district

46
Presidential Election Process

• Each state holds a primary or caucus between
  January and June to determine the candidates from
  each party (intraparty contest)
• Candidates then enter the general election
  against other parties (interparty contest)
• More people will vote in a general election in
  2004 50 voted in general election with only
  about 25 voting in the primaries

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Congressional v. Presidential elections

• Congress elections are REGIONAL
• Senate by State House by district
• House elections are less competitive than Senate
  or president
• Incumbents rep. up for reelection usually win
  elections by at least 605
• Congressional elections every two years fewer
  people vote in off year elections or mid term
  elections which means voters in these elections
  are more activist

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Congressional v. Presidential
Congressional v. Presidential

• Coattail Effect presidential popularity
  effecting congressional elections during midterm
  elections
• Congress communicates with their constituents
  more directly, often personally, while President
  relies on the media
• Congress reps can deny responsibility and blame
  problems on other representatives or President

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Running for President

• MONEY
• Organization
• Fund raisers, lawyers, accountants, media
  consultants, advisors, pollsters, --- staff of
  hundreds
• Strategy and Themes
• Tone, Theme, timing and Target

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Running for Congress

• Incumbents have huge advantage
• Money, Time and Name Recognition
• Franking Privileges
• Cater to distrust by public of federal government
• Run against Congress, not for it
• Sophomore Surge

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Steps to the White House

• Announcements
• Primaries and Caucuses
• Front loading (New Hampshire and Iowa)
• Win delegates
• Convention
• Party Unity
• Rubberstamp
• Platform Written
• General Election
• Labor Day through November
• The people

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Delegate Selection

• Proportional System
• Primary system used by the Democratic Party
• Candidates are allocated the same percentage of a
  states delegates as they received in popular
  votes

• Winner-take-all System
• System used in most Republican primaries
• The winner of the popular vote in that state
  receives all that states delegates

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The Electoral College

• 48 states utilize the Winner take all
• Maine and Nebraska do not
• Each State
• Number of electors equals number of members in
  Congress
• One vote for President and One vote for Vice
  President
• Ballots in December
• Changed from original by the 12th amendment
• No winner House chooses the President (one vote
  per state) and Senate chooses the Vice President

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(No Transcript)
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Plans to reform the electoral college

• District Plan one winner per congressional
  district and state as a whole
• Proportional percentage of popular vote equals
  percentage of electoral vote
• Direct election need 40 of the popular vote to
  win the election
• National Bonus Plan changes the numbers of
  electoral votes
• Problems rise in the influence of third parties

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Election Reforms

• FECA of 1971 and 1974
• Limit if matching funds
• FEC created
• Creation of PACs and soft money
• Buckley v. Valeo- no limit on expenditures but
  limit donations
• Bipartisan Reform Act
• No soft money
• 527s created
• No issue ads
• Increase amounts to be donated by individuals

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Types of elections

• Maintaining
• Critical Realigning
• 1860, 1896 and 1932 switch party alliances for
  the election made more permanent changes
• Dealignment
• No party influence some changes but no long
  term effects
• Reinstating
• Return the original party to power