GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD SYSTEMS
(GECAFS) GECAFS In Relation To Policy
Formulation A Presentation to the GECAFS
Seminar by Professor Paul Ekins Head of
Environment Group Policy Studies Institute Royal
Society, London Tuesday 15th October, 2002
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Scope of GECAFS

• Emphasis on food systems. Multiple interactions
• Natural environment - human condition
• Local - global
• Economic - social/cultural
• Start from full frame of reference

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Baseline Issues

• Population growth ) need more
• Increased meat in diets ) production
• Sources of greater output in the past
• More land
• More inputs (water, fertiliser, pesticides)
• Improved technology (e.g. seeds)

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The Future? Radical Uncertainty

• With right incentives can grow enough food for
  expected population and changed diets, perhaps
  using modern bioscience
• Up against environmental limits (land, water,
  responsiveness to inputs), no new wonder
  technologies, modern bioscience either not safe
  or not proven or both
• Add in GEC, multiplies uncertainty

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From Production to Availability

• Availability f(production, distribution)
• Distribution is achieved through markets,
  entitlements
• Will open, global food markets increase human
  welfare?
• What kind of liberalisation towards what kind of
  open markets will enable poor farmers to benefit
  from globalisation and Northern countries to
  retain food security with more environmentally
  benign agriculture?
• GECAFS at cutting edge of globalisation and
  sustainability

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From Availability to Access

• Starvation/malnutrition problem of access not
  production
• World becoming more unequal. What if
• Market demand for meat ? more crops devoted to
  feed for animals rather than humans
• Market demand of poor for food to eat cannot
  compete?
• Should anything be done? If so, what? What is
  entitlement to food in age of global food
  markets?
• Does GEC resulting from the lifestyles of the
  better off make any difference?

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Environment and Human Behaviour

• ESRC New Opportunities Programme
• Rapid climate change vulnerability, adaptation,
  mitigation
• GECAFS
• If GEC changes food system potentials, human
  behaviour will change radically
• marginal areas may increase in productivity
• social instability, migration, economic collapse

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Conclusion

• GECAFS a huge research agenda of great policy
  importance
• If only come to understand impacts and policy
  importance of GEC in one area, this had better be
  it

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