1?Franklin Allen:

1
??????????????(???????????)

• ??????
• ??
• 2005?2?1?

2
??????

• 1?Franklin Allen??????,?????????,2002?
• 2? Ross Levine???????????????????,??????????
  ,?????????????,?????????,2002?,
• 3? Ross Levine Bank-Based or Market-Based
  Financial Systems Which is Bette?(?Levine????)
• 4?????1999????????,Levine????,?????????????,?150??
  30????????,?????

3
??????

• 5??????,?????????,2000?
• 6?DO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MATTER?,Franklin
  Allen,2002
• 7?Financial Intermediaries and Markets,
  Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale
  ????????????00?44?

4
??????

• 8??????????,1996?????????2002??1?2?
• 9???????????????-???????,???????,2005?
• 10?Thorsten Beck, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross
  LevineA New Database on Financial Development
  and StructureJune 1999,World Bank Economic
  Review, September 2000,

5
??????

• ???????,????????1940????,???????????????
• ?????????????????????????,??,???????(??),??????
• ?????????,Levine????????????????,??????????,??????
  ?

6
?????????

• 1????(??)
• 2??????(???)?2?8?10?12?

7
??????????????

• 1?1933???????-??????,???????????
• 2???????,????????????,(OECD??2002?????????70)
• 3?1960??????????????????????
• 4?????????????????
• 5?????????,90??????

8
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• 6?1997???????,?????????????,??50???????????????,?
  ???????????
• 7?1999??????????????,???1933?????-???????????
  ??70??????????IT??,????????
• 8???1980???????,????????,???????

9
??????????????

• 9???1993???????????????1993??????????????????????
  ?,1995?????????????????
• 10?1991????????,??????????????????????
• 11????15??????????8,??????????,????
• 12?2000???????????????,2004???????????,????????,??
  ?????

10
??????????????

• 13?2004??????????????????,??????????(?????)
  
• 14?2005?,?????????????????????????

11
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• ?????(?Levine???????,??)19?
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????

12
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• ?????(8)
• ???????????????????????????

13
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  ????????

14
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• ??4???,????????

15
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  ?????????????????,????????????????????????????,
  ?????????,?????????????????,????????

16
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• 2????????????????????????????????????????,??????
  ????????????GDP???
• 3???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????,??????????????????????NPL?

17
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  ????, ????????,??????????,?????????,??????????????
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18
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  ??????,?????,?????????????
• 6?????????????,?????????,??????????,?????????????
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19
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• 7???????????????????????????(???)??,??????M2/GDP?
  ???????,?????????,M2/GDP???,?????????,????????????
  ????M2?????GDP??????
• 8???????,?????????????????,??????????????????????
  ,????,???????????????

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  ?????????,??????????????,?????????????
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29
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30
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31
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• 7?????120?-?????
• 8???????35?-??100?-4000?
• 9???????
• 8???????64?
• 9??????33000?
• 10??????750?
• 11?????????74?
• 12???????12?
• 13???????5?(??????????????3?)

32
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• 1?????
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33
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• 1??????26??,??17.8??,??25?????
• 2??????3000?,???????200?2004???????????????????1
  511?????,??A?(????????)123?,??23?,????836??,??16??
  ??B??H??28?,????675??,??137???????????(A?B?)?????
  ??1287????1377?,????37056??,??????12.7?

34
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• 3??????1.2??2004????????????4318??,?????11.3,??
  ??????2851???????????????377?????????1090???????
  ?????1004??,????????308????????????????129??????
  ?568???

35
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36
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37
??????2003-2004
38
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