Cap and Trade, Climate, and Your House

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Cap and Trade, Climate, and Your House

• Patrick J. Michaels
• Distinguished Senior Fellow
• School of Public Policy
• George Mason University
• Senior Fellow
• Cato Institute

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Waxman-Markey

• 3 below 2005 emissions in 2012
• 16 below 2005 by 2020
• 42 below 2005 by 2030
• 83 below 2005 by 2050

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WAXMAN-MARKEY HOUSING STANDARDS

• 30 more efficient than 2005 in 2012
• 50 in 2016
• Additional 5 every three years

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DO THE MATH

• By 2049 (38.4 years from today) --
• EVERY HOME IS A GENERATOR.

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US per capita CO2 emissions POST-2005 VALUES
BASED UPON WAXMAN-MARKEY and U.S. Census Bureau
projections
2005
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U.S. Annual CO2 Emissions
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Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global
Temperatures Year 2050
1.584C
1.540C
1.500C
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Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global
Temperatures Year 2100
2.959C
2.847C
2.738C
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COST ESTIMATES
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FROM CONGRESS TO EPA

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EPA Endangerment Finding (December 7, 2009)
Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic GHG greenhouse gas
concentrations.
EPA defines very likely as a 90 to 95
probability
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Observed Global Temperature History, 1950-2009
Total Rise Obs. 0.702C
(sources HadCRUT3)
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Observed Global Temperature History,
1950-2009 Adjusted for SST Errors
Total Rise Obs. 0.702C Adj. 0.552C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 79 of Observed
(sources HadCRUT3 Thompson et al., 2008)
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Observed Global Temperature History,
1950-2009 Adjusted for SST Non-climatic
Influences
Total Rise Obs. 0.702C Adj. 0.468C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 67 of Observed
(sources HadCRUT3 Thompson et al., 2008
McKitrick and Michaels, 2007)
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Observed Global Temperature History,
1950-2009 Adjusted for SST NonClim Stratos
H2O
Total Rise Obs. 0.702C Adj. 0.408C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 58 of Observed
(sources HadCRUT3 Thompson et al., 2008
McKitrick and Michaels, 2007 Solomon et al.,
2010)
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Observed Global Temperature History,
1950-2009 Adjusted for SST NonClim Stratos
H2O Black Carbon
Total Rise Obs. 0.702C Adj. 0.306C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 44 of Observed
(sources HadCRUT3 Thompson et al., 2008
McKitrick and Michaels, 2007 Solomon et al.,
2010 Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009)
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Observed Global Temperature History,
1950-2009 Adjusted for SST NonClim Stratos
H2O BC Sun
Total Rise Obs. 0.702C Adj. 0.204C
Adjusted Temperature Rise is 29 of Observed
(sources HadCRUT3 Thompson et al., 2008
McKitrick and Michaels, 2007 Solomon et al.,
2010 Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009 Scafetta,
2009)
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Many residents of low-lying Pacific Island
nations have already had to evacuate their homes
because of rising seas.
HIGH TIDE IN FUNAFUTI, TUVALU POLYNESIA
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Steric Sea Level Trends, 1955-1996
Region where Tuvalu and many other Pacific Island
nations are located. Sea levels have declined
there.
Source Cabanes et al., Science, 2001
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IPCC AR4 Global Average Sea Level Rise
Projections (2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
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URGENCY?
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IPCCs 21 Models for Climate ChangeRealistic CO2
Changes
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Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures
Model Projections
Observed Trend
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration (Observed
and Projected)
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ATMOSPHERIC METHANE

• SOURCES
• Bovine Flatulence
• Rice Paddy Agriculture
• Coal Mining
• Leaky Pipes?

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Atmospheric Methane (Duglokenky 09)IPCC 2001
(same as 2007) Overlay
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Methane, 1983-2008 (Dlugokenky 09)
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Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures
Model Projections
Observed Trend
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Global and NH Accumulated Cyclone Energy
(ACE) (January 1979 - March 2010)
Global ACE
Northern Hemisphere ACE