The%20Future

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The Future
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Positive Feedbacks to Global Warming

• Warming oceans and soils are absorbing less CO2,
  so more CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere.
• Melting permafrost is now emitting CO2 and
  methane the more melting, the greater the
  emission.
• The warming methane hydrates on the Siberian
  continental shelf are beginning to emit methane
  and CO2.
• The decreasing ice and snow cover is exposing
  more dark surfaces causing more surface and
  atmospheric heating.
• A warming atmosphere holds more water vapor (a
  strong greenhouse gas) increasing the temperature.

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Model Future Water Vapor Increase
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Positive Feedbacks Can Lead to a Non-linear
Climate Response
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The 800 lb Gorilla Nobody Wants to Talk About
ABRUBT CLIMATE CHANGE

• Some large natural climate changes have occurred
  abruptly.
• In some instances, the average global temperature
  has risen or fallen gt8º C in less than 10 years,
  and at least one in as little as 5 years. An
  increase of 6 C in this century would be
  considered an abrupt climate change.
• The trigger for the abrupt temperature rises is
  not well understood but probably involves a
  catastrophic release of methane and carbon
  dioxide.
• Global warming could trigger an abrupt climate
  change. If this happened its effects would
  certainly be catastrophic. The recent accelerated
  melting of permafrost and increased atmospheric
  methane could be the beginning of an abrupt
  climate change.

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Carbon Emissions for Peak CO2 Stabilization
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CO2 Reductions Required to Keep Warming Under 2C
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Emission Reductions to Stabilize the CO2 Content
at 400, 450 and 550 ppm
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Scenarios of Future CO2 Global Emissions and
Concentrations
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Probability Distribution for Committed Warming of
2.4C as of 2005
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Possible Political and Societal Consequences

• Three Climate Change Scenarios
• Expected (1.3 C Increase)
• Severe (2.6 C Increase)
• Catastrophic (5.6 C Increase)

Reference The Age of Consequences The Foreign
Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change, Center for Strategic and
International Studies, Washington, DC , November
2007.
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Scenario 1 (Expected)

• Global Temperature Anomaly 1.3 C
• Sea level rise of about 0.23 meter
• This temperature anomaly is almost certain
  because of the inertia of the system.
• The time for this condition is probably about the
  year 2040.

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Environmental Stresses

• Water Scarcity for 1.7 billion people
• Tropical Infectious Diseases Spread North
• Frequent Flooding for over 3 million people
• About 30 million people subject to starvation

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Political and Societal Stresses

• Conflicts over resources
• About 25 million people displaced from coastal
  areas
• Immigrations from countries with widespread
  disease causes political unrest
• Dissatisfaction with governments may radicalize
  internal politics
• Social services become burden to governments
• Large decrease in world GDP

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Scenario 2 (Severe)

• Global Temperature Anomaly 2.6 C
• Sea level rise of about 0.5 meter
• This scenario looks more and more probable.
• The time for this condition may be about the year
  2040.

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Environmental Stresses

• Sea level rise of 0.5 meter
• Water scarcity affects over 2 billion people
• About 50 million people displaced from coastal
  areas
• Up to 15 million people face severe flooding
• Significant increase in diseases including
  malnutrition and infectious diseases
• Major changes in marine ecosystems due to ocean
  acidification

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Political and Societal Stresses

• Wealthier nations provoke poorer highly stressed
  nations to abandon democracy and increase
  aggressive behavior to neighbors
• Global fish stocks crash causing conflicts among
  nations for food.
• Many nations may privatize water resources
  causing internal upheavals
• Globalization will probably end and rapid
  economic decline will occur.
• Alliance systems and multinational institutions
  may end.
• Private corporations may become more important
  than governments

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Scenario 3 (Catastrophic)

• Global Temperature Anomaly 5.6 C
• Sea level rise 2 meters
• This condition may occur about the end of the
  century

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Environmental Stresses

• About 170 million people displaced because of sea
  level rise
• Water scarcity affects about 3.2 billion people
  (half todays population)
• Collapse of the marine ecosystem
• Mass starvation due to crop failures and fish
  depletion
• Large increase in deaths due to high
  temperatures, spread of diseases and malnutrition
• Mass extinction of over 50 of existing species

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Political and Societal Stresses

• Massive migration to the north (U.S., Canada,
  Russia and Europe) leads to chaos in these
  regions
• Rage at governments, rise in religious
  radicalism, and hostility and violence toward
  immigrants leads to political chaos
• Economic collapse is a distinct possibility
• Nuclear war is also a possibility
• Probably the end of civilization as we know it