????

1
?????????????
K2 ??????5??????

• ????????
• ????????????????
• ?????
• ???????????

2
??2???????????????

• 4???????
• ?????????????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????
• ???-???????????????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????

3
C4MIP???IPCC????
(Coupled Climate - Carbon Cycle Model
Intercomparison Project)
Friedlingstein et al. (2006, J. Climate)
4
???????????????????????
4
??AR4 SPM
IPCC-AR4?1??????????????????(??)??C4MIP?2????????(
??)
?A2?????3?
?????????????????
???????????
???? ?
???????? ??1.5??????
ppm
????????? (?????????)? ????????
??
??
??AR4 ?10? ?10.20
?1 IPCC?AR4?????????? ????????????????????? ?2
Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model
Intercomparison Project(?????????????????????)????
???????? ?????????????????????3
?????????????????2????
5
????????????(DGVM)???
????
SEIB-DGVM???
Sato et al., Ecological Modelling (2007)
6
????????????????
?????????
??TOMS (2000-2004)
JFMAMJJASOND
REF1????????T42 (2000-2004)
JFMAMJJASOND
7
????????????????????
NICAMSPRINTARS
???AGCM
????
????????
8
????????
??????????
?????? (?????100?500 meter?)
????????????? (?????50 ?200meter? )
Annals of Glaciology, in press
9
??????????????????????????
10
???

• IPCC AR4??????(?????????)?AR5?????
• ??????????? ? WMO???????????????
• DGVM?????-??????????NICAM????????????
• ?????????????????????? ? ??????????????????????

11
????????????
12
??-?????? ?????
13
C4MIP???IPCC????
(Coupled Climate - Carbon Cycle Model
Intercomparison Project)
Friedlingstein et al. (2006, J. Climate)
14
??????????????
???????????
????????????????
????????????????????????? ?????????????????????
????????????????????????????
?????
15
??????????????????????
??A???B1,2 ?????????30????
??A
??B1
??B2
????????? ?10????
16
SEIB-DGVM???
??????????????? ????????????? ??????????????
??????????????????????????????????
?????????????(_at_???)
Preliminary result
1??
30??
100??
??? ?????
??? ?????
?????
???????
??????
17
20??????????????
a)
CO2???????????????1-2?????????? ? Keeling??
????? ????????HR?????? CO2?
??????????NCB?????? ???????? CO2??????
CO2 ?????
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
Temperature (oC)
???????
b)
HR
Carbon flux (Pg C yr-1)
NPP
NCB
Year
18
Sim-CYCLE MATSIRO?????
- ????MATSIRO???-
????MATSIRO
???MATSIRO
??
????????
1? ??????1??? ??????????
?? ???????????? ??????????????
??!!
??????/?????????? ?????????????Sim-CYCLE/SEIB-DG
VM????
19
SEIB-DGVM?????????1 (????)
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
20
SEIB-DGVM?????????2 (????)
???? (Pg C yr-1)
??? (Pg C)
2100?
100?
2000?
1900?
2100?
100?
2000?
1900?
?????????????????????????????????????????
21
???

• ???????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????
• CO2???????????????????????
• ???????(DGVM)???????????????????????????