Planning

1
Planning

• A population profile allows a country to plan for
  the future
• Children need- schools, medical care, daycare
  (dependents)
• Young people need colleges universities, jobs
  
• Older people need healthcare, retirement
  centers (dependents)
• Dependency Ratio
• (lt15 years)(gt65 years) x 100
• 16-64 year olds

2
Doubling Time

• Doubling Time Number of years that it takes for
  a population to double in size.
• Divide 70 by the Natural Increase. For example
  The Natural Increase for the world is 1.2
• 70/1.2 58 years

3
Demographic Transition
Return
4
Demographic Transition

• Phase I BR and DR both high (35-50).
• BR DR
• Very slow population growth due to a balance
  between birth rates (BR) and death rates (DR).
• Little or no disease control occurs.
• Populations experienced periodic food shortages.

5

• Phase II BR high and DR declines.
• Rapid population growth
• As a result of improved food production and
  public health
• BR gt DR

6

• Phase III BR starts to decline. The gap between
  BR and DR narrows.
• Fewer children needed declining mortality.
• Increased urbanization.
• Increased female literacy and employment.
• Contraceptives become more available.

7

• Why did Americans in the 1800s tend to have
  large families?
• Most Americans lead a rural life
• Economic reasons
• Mortality rates were higher than today

8

• Bites and Bulges
• Prediction of present and future needs.
• Zero Population Growth (ZPG) Why is this not
  achieved once a population reaches replacement
  level?
• Population Momentum

Read the text and find out how Bites and Bulges
affect a population profile. What is population
momentum and how does it explain why a population
continues to grow when it reaches ZPG.
9

• Why do people in some of the worlds poorest
  countries have such high fertility rates?
• Tradition
• Religion
• Early marriage age
• Availability of contraceptives
• Female illiteracy rate
• High infant mortality rates
• Children as economic asset
• Page 146-147 in text

Use the text to examine these factors
10

• Why do people in developed (industrial countries)
  have low TFR?
• They lead a mainly urban lifestyle
• Economics
• They have high expectations and raising children
  is expensive.
• Education costs
• They do not need children for old age security
  (Social security/retirement funds)

11

• Phase IV Decline in BR catches up with low DR.
• BR DR
• Economic development in developed world.

12

• Are developing countries locked in to Phases II
  and III ?
• Many experts believe that without economic
  progress a nation cannot enter the final stage(s)
  of demographic transition.
• There are many exceptions to the this. Many
  countries of Eastern Asia (China, Japan, Korea,
  Taiwan) have entered Stage IV of demographic
  transition while before reaching economic
  stability.

13

• Why do people in some of the worlds poorest
  countries have such high fertility rates?
• Tradition (in rural Tibet it is traditional for a
  girl to marry once she reaches puberty)
• Religion (some religions ban the use of
  contraceptives among their members)
• Early marriage age
• Availability of contraceptives
• Female illiteracy rate
• High infant mortality rates
• Children as economic asset
• Page 174-176 in text

There are links to some of the topics on this
page. Click the links to find more information on
the web. Make sure your browser is open.
14
India
Visit the following India external link

• Was the first nation wide family planning 1951
• 1975 forced sterilization lead to downfall of
  government.
• Centralized family planning
• There is a strong desire for sons
• Literacy 60
• Low contraceptive use 31
• 25 of the population is below the poverty line
• Infant mortality is high - 6.4
• Child mortality(1-4 years)
• 3.7 (girls)
• 2.5 (boys)

15
China

• Barefoot doctors were established in rural area
  during the Cultural Revolution.
• Nation wide family planning - 1972-73
• Birth quotas were established
• Incentives and disincentives
• Free schooling, jobs and medicine to those who
  signed family planning agreement
• 1985 rural family could have 2 children if
  first is girl, urban couple was allowed 1 child
  regardless of sex of child
• 2006 contraceptive use 87
• Literacy rate 91 (2007 CIA World Factbook)
• Marriage age 20 for women, 22 for men

Visit the following China external link
16
China - reasons

• Why has it brought fertility below replacement
  level ?
• 92 Han ethnic group. (Its easier to deal with
  one culture rather than a number of diverse
  cultures)
• The population is used to obeying authoritarian
  rule
• Good family planning infrastructure
• Integration of family planning with economics

17
China - problems

• Some women were forced to undergo abortion
• Female infanticide and abandonment normally
  105-106 boys per 100 girls. Currently, 112 boys
  born per 100 girls.
• The WHO said more than 50 million women were
  estimated to be missing (external link) in
  China.

18
Thailand
Visit the following Thailand external link

• Culture women are treated as equals
• Buddhist scripture preaches that "many children
  make you poor.
• Education literacy 93
• Contraceptive availability is high.
• Sterilization is popular.
• Government low interest (1) loans for
  agricultural projects.
• Unemployment 2.1 (2007 CIA World Factbook)
• TFR 1.7 BR 14

19
Solutions

• Female education
• Employment opportunities
• Status of women
• Delay marriage age
• Availability of medicine (immunization etc.)
• Availability of Contraception/Sterilization
• Social support

20
USA

• Fastest growing industrial country
• July 1, 2007 population estimate 302.2 million
• BR 14 DR 8
• natural increase 0.6

21
U.S. Census Bureau Projections for USA
22

• USA is adding
• 1,700,000 per year through natural increase (PBR)
• 1,000,000 per year through migration
• Population growth rate 0.92
• 33 of U.S. growth is due to migration

23
(No Transcript)
24
Teenage Pregnancy

• Accounts for 13 of U.S. births
• 78 of births to teens occur outside of marriage
• -U.S. teen pregnancy - twice as high as in
  England and Wales or Canada, and nine times as
  high as in the Netherlands or Japan.

Visit the U.S. teen pregnancy external link
National Vital Statistics Report, 1997, Vol. 47,
No. 18, Table 2.
25
Percentage sexual activity rate among U.S. teens
- 1995
26
Race and Fertility in U.S.

• 2001 Population Reference Bureau (external
  link)
• non-Hispanic whites - TFR 1.9
• Asian Americans TFR 2.0
• American Indians TFR 2.1
• non-Hispanic blacks TFR 2.2
• Hispanics TFR 3.2.
• Continued growth (?)

Visit the U.S. fertility and race external link
27
Source U.S. Census Bureau 2007
28
Future needs

• Median age of U.S. population is 36 years
• Life expectancy 78 years
• 0-14 years - 21
• 15-64 years 67
• gt65 years 12
• Baby boom generation is aging
• Aging population health care, social security

29
Contraceptives and Fertility
Return
30
Income and Fertility
Return
31
Contraceptive Use (external link)
Look at the trend, do not memorize these numbers.
Region Contraceptive use among married women
More Developed countries 68
Less Developed countries 60 (ex China)- 51
Africa 28
Asia 66 (ex China) -56
Latin America 71
North America 73
Europe 67
32
THE END
33
TFR and female education
Return
34
Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, 2005.
35
Marriage age
Return
36
Reaching Replacement Fertility
Average number of children per woman
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, 2005.
37
Patterns of Fertility Decline
Average number of children per woman
Uganda
Kenya
Columbia
South Korea
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2004 Revision, 2005.