Complex dynamics and adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations

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• Complex dynamics and adaptive fuzzy rule-based
  expectations
• economic simulations with GENEFER

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Contents

• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)

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Adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations

• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)

• Why rule-based?humans form mental models in
  complex situations, simple rules
• Why fuzzy?uncertainty about exact functioning
  of a market
• Why adaptive? humans learn from experiences and
  update, drop, or form new rules

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Example

• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)

• IF interest rate differential between the USA and
  Germany is medium AND growth rate in the USA is
  significantly larger THEN the will continue its
  moderate decline against the US

IF interest rate differential between the USA and
Germany is medium AND growth rate in the USA is
significantly larger THEN the will continue its
moderate decline against the US
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Fuzzy Terms

• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)

µ
medium
1,0
iUSA- iGer
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Fuzzy RuleBase

• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)

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Learning

• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)

1. adapt fuzzy set widths and centers

• forget unused rules

1. search for new rules

(2)
w1 IF AND THEN
w2 IF AND THEN
w3 IF AND THEN
w4 IF AND THEN
w5 IF AND THEN
w6 IF AND THEN
w7 IF AND THEN
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GENEFER

• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)

• universal tool for designing, managing and
  analyzing fuzzy RuleBases
• expectation generator for economic simulations
  via COM-Interface
• forecast manager for empirical data

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• What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?
• What is GENEFER?
• How does it work?(Example)