CAUSE OF

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CAUSE OF THE PAUSE IN GLOBAL WARMING ITS
IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE CLIMATES-THE PAST IS THE
KEY TO THE FUTURE
Don J. Easterbrook Dept. of Geology Western
Washington University Bellingham, WA
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WARNING!!!!

• A LOT OF DATA IS COMING!!!

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What is the pause ?

• The absence of global warming for the past 18
  years has become known as the pause. but, in
  fact, that is a bad term because it implies that
  the norm is continued warming and cooling is an
  anomaly. It has been characterized as the
  biggest mystery in climate science, but it is
  not a mystery at allits been going on for
  millenia.

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Atmospheric CO2 increased only 0.004 during
global warming
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Previous pauses
Three warming periods since 1850 have been
interrupted by cool periods (pauses). 20
warming periods since 1480 have been interrupted
by cool periods (pauses)
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Warm/cool periods over the past 10,000 years

Until the Little Ice Age began about 1300 AD, the
climate had been 2½-5½ F warmer than present for
8,500 years.
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Cause of the warming pause
Glacier fluctuations match the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) which matches global temperature
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Good correlation of PDO AMO and Arctic mean
temperatures and glaciers in the Alps
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GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS
CLIMATE CHANGES
PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES
WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?
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WHATS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 30 YRS?
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Predicting future climates
In order to predict where we are heading, we need
to know where weve been. The past is the key
to the future. Having established a well-defined
pattern of warming and cooling, we can project
that pattern into the future.
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Measuring climatic warming/cooling in the
geologic past

• Historic temperature measurements
• Oxygen isotope ratios in deep ice cores.
• Advance and retreat of glaciers.
• Measurement of ocean temperatures

Data in this presentation may be found in this
volume
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PDO 1900-present
Modified from http//jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
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Pattern of repeated warm/cool PDOs
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DJE predictions in 2000

• Global warming is over (Easterbrook, 2000,
  2010)
• The current warm cycle should end in the next
  few years, and global warming should abate,
  rather than increase, in the coming decades.
  (Easterbrook, 2000)
• The current warm cycle should end soon and
  global temperatures should cool. (Easterbrook,
  2006

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How cool will it get? 1, Like 1945-1977? 2.
Like 1880-1915? 3. Like 1790-1820 Dalton
Minimum? 4. Like 1650-1700 Maunder Minimum?
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How well is the 2000 cooling prediction doing?
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5-year and 10 year cooling trends
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Winters in the US have been much cooler than
usual in the past 15 years
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Summary

• A consistent pattern of global warming and
  cooling has occurred for hundreds (thousands)
  of years.
• The pattern of past global warming and cooling
  can be projected into the future as a basis for
  predicting climate changes.
• The pattern of global warming and cooling
  matches warm and cool periods of the PDO
  (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and is clearly
  related to the PDO/AMO.
• Projection of past climate patterns into the
  future, combined with the PDO turning cold in
  1999 led to 2000 predictions of cooler global
  climates in the next several decades.
• So far my 2000 prediction of global cooling is
  indeed happening.

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The cause of global warming and cooling

• Role of the sun in climate change
• Correlation of global temperature and
• 1. Sun spot number (SSN)
• 2. Iotal solar insolation (TSI)
• 3. Solar magnetism
• 4. Cosmic ray intensity
• 5. Production rate of 10Be.
• 6. Prodcution rate of 14C

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CET during the Maunder
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Sun spots and cool periods
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TSI and global temperature
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SSN and TSI
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Global cooling and TSI
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Solar magnetic flux
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Production rates of 14C and 10Be as a measure of
past cosmic ray activituy

• 14N7 n 14C6 1H1
• 14C6 14N7 ?-
• Production of 14C6 varies with the neutron flux,
  causing 14C6 age to differ from calendar age
• Comparison of 14C ages with ages of tree rings
  gives a measure of 14C production rates (and
  thus changes in cosmic radiation)
• 10Be is produced in the atmosphere by the cosmic
  ray spallation of oxygen and is also a function
  of cosmic ray flux.

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10Be
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CET temperature and 10Be
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10Be and SSN
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Both 10Be and 14C record increased cosmic
activity
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Sun spots and cosmic rays
Cosmic ray incidence increases with low sun spot
numbers
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Temperature decreases with increase in cosmic rays
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Condensation produced by cosmic rays
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CONCLUSONS

• Global warming began in 1978.
• The pause is a period of no warming for the
  past 17 yrs 9 months.
• Temperatures for the past 10,000 yrs were 2½-5½F
  warmer than present until 1500 yrs ago when we
  entered the LIA.
• Many period of warming that ended with cool
  periods have occurred in the past.
• Well-defined patterns of the PDO and global
  temperature projected into the future indicate
  25-30 yrs of cooling.
• My 2000 prediction of 25-30 yrs of cooling has
  been confirmed by cooling in the past decade.
• The amount of cooling might be similar to the
  1945-1977, 1890-1915, Dalton (1790-1820), or
  Maunder (1650-1700) cooling.

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• Good correlation of SSN, TSI, solar magnetism,
  cosmic ray intensity, and production rates of 14C
  and 10Be and global temperature indicate
  cause-and-effect relationships between them.
• The Maunder, Dalton, 1890-1915, and 1945-1977
  cool periods were all characterized by low SSN,
  low TSI, low solar magnetism, and high production
  rates of 14C and 10Be.
• Increased cosmic radiation induces atmospheric
  condensation that could lead to increased
  cloudiness and cooler temperatures (Svensmark).
• The sun causes global warming and cooling, but
  the mechanism is not understood.
• Look for continued global cooling.
• Time will be the judge of whether or not these
  observations and conclusions are correct.

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Dogma is an impediment to the free exercise of
thought. It paralyses the intelligence.
Conclusions based upon preconceived ideas are
valueless. It is only the open mind that really
thinks. Patricia Wentworth, 1949 For data and
information go to Bing.com or Google.com and
enter Don Easterbrook global warming