Thinking

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Thinking Language
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Obstacles to problem solving
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Confirmation bias

• Looking for and accepting evidence that supports
  our preconceived ideas.
• Dont bother me with the facts,I have made up my
  mind.
• Makes it difficult to consider contradictory
  information.

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Fixation

• Inability to see a problem from a new viewpoint.

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Mental set

• We see what we expect
• What worked in the past
• Makes it difficult to see a problem differently.

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Functional fixedness

• Seeing things only one way
• Makes it difficult to see different uses for
  things.

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Heuristics

• Mental shortcuts
• Often helpful, but can cause problems.

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Heuristics

• Representativeness
• This person is representative of (similar to)
  this group.
• Therefore, he has these characteristics
• Availability
• An available (memorable) clear powerful memory is
  more powerful than a statistical reality.
• We over feel and under think
• E.g. Deaths from 9/11 VS smoking

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Heuristics

• Overconfidence
• Overestimating the accuracy of our judgments and
  performance.
• Stock purchases - E.g. E-trade, or Charles Schwab
  online trades
• Reality rarely reduces their overconfidence in
  the next situation.

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Heuristics

• Belief perseverance
• When given mixed evidence, two opposing parties
  will actually increase their disagreement.
• Each party will view the evidence in a way that
  further supports their preexisting beliefs.
• Prejudice persists because once formed, opposing
  evidence is rejected.
• What you can do Consider the opposite (or argue
  the others point of view.
• E.g. Family therapy

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Framing

• We judge things differently based on how the
  information is presented.
• 10 die VS. 90 survival rate of an operation
• Aid to the needy vs.Welfare
• Cloning vs. Nuclear cell transfer
• Opt in vs. Opt out
• Divorce Sin vs. independence
• You can change peoples perception of a situation
  by reframing it.

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Fear

• We fear
• 1. What evolution and our ancestral history
  prepared us to fear.
• E.g. heights and spiders
• 2. What we can not control
• E.g. Tandem jump VS static line
• 3. What is immediate VS. long term
• E.g. flying vs. smoking.
• 4. What is most memorable
• E.g. 9/11 vs. traffic deaths
• Bill gates quote
• Result Check your fears against the facts

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Thought problems to avoid

• 1. Hindsight bias
• I knew it all along.
• 2. Illusory correlation
• Thinking 2 things are related when they are not.
• E.g. adoption and pregnancy
• 3. Memory Construction
• Misinformation can create false memories

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Thought problems to avoid

• Overconfidence
• We tend to overestimate our own abilities and
  underestimate others.
• Belief perseverance conformation bias
• Beliefs remain even when discredited
• E.g. We believe only what supports our
  preexisting beliefs
• Prejudice?

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Thought problems to avoid

• Self serving bias
• Inflated self assessments
• E.g. If I do well I take the credit
• If I do poorly, others are to blame
• Fundamental attribution error
• Attributing behavior of others to their
  disposition (personality) and ignoring the
  environment.
• E.g. The homeless person is just lazy

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Thinking with images (procedures) not words

• Thinking with words, What do I need to do
  today.
• Thinking with images
• Turning on the cold water
• Riding a bicycle

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Thinking with images (procedures) not words

• Visualizing thinking about an activity
  stimulates the same brain centers as actually
  performing the activity.
• Playing the piano
• Gymnastics
• Golf
• Olympic athletes
• Spend time visualizing your completing the task,
  not just the destination.
• E.g. Gymnastic gold medal

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Much information processing occurs beyond
consciousness and language.