BB05MSB502

1
BB05MSB502 High-Resolution MET Modeling and
Probabilistic Weather for Atmospheric Transport
and Dispersion (ATD)
TITAN Corporation - DTRA01-03-D-0013, 0004
Objectives 1) Perform research and development
to extend, validate and maintain existing weather
uncertainty methods and work to make this
functionality suitable for ingest by SCIPUFF, as
part of accurate high-resolution meteorological
(MET) predictions in DTRAs operational
atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD)
capability, and 2) perform research and
development to extend, validate and maintain the
mesoscale models capabilities, including
providing to DTRA operational reachback support
for troubleshooting and configuration of DTRA MET
modeling software and hardware. Description of
Effort Determine sufficient ensemble members
and appropriate resolution to generate data
fields with appropriate weather uncertainty using
existing models. A hierarchy of
ensemble/uncertainty techniques will be studied,
so that a system can be designed that will
gracefully degrade when less than optimal data
are available. The primary methods studied will
include Bayesian Model Averaging, Linear
Covariance Calibration, and Deformation field
analysis. To further research, develop, extend,
validate and maintain the mesoscale model
capabilities, including providing support for
model troubleshooting. Task will include
transitioning of modeling at DTRA to use MM5 and
mesoscale FDDA, and investigate how MM5 may be
made more effective for providing data in the PBL
and in urban areas.
Major Goals/Milestones by Fiscal Year FY05
Real-time in-house Relocatable On-demand Forecast
System (ROFS) based on MM5 modeling system for
supporting DTRA HPAC applications and reachback
support. Probabilistic weather research for
ATD. FY06 Expanded ROFS capabilities
including continuous data assimilation. Realtime
and operational reachback support to DTRA for MET
modeling (e.g., 2006 Winter Olympics).
Customized MM5 and WRF-NMM outputs to better
support HPAC/SCIPUFF. Improved physical,
temporal and numerical coupling of MM5 and
SCIPUFF. Continue ensemble work for ATD. FY07
Continued work on DTRA mesoscale modeling system,
tighter coupling to HPAC/SCIPUFF, probabilistic
MET inputs and new MET model parameters for
SCIPUFF. Dipole Pride 26 with ATD data to
evaluate effect of data assimilation and model
resolution on SCIPUFF predictions. PI contact
info David Stauffer, PSU, stauffer_at_meteo.psu.edu,
814.863.3932
Benefits of Proposed Technology Recommendations
for how to provide the best information for the
level of data available. System will be rapidly
relocatable and able to assimilate high
resolution surface mesonet data and other local
asynoptic data sources which may be important for
fine-scale transport and dispersion within the
boundary layer. Improved ATD accuracy using
advanced ensemble methods to represent MET
uncertainty. Challenges Developing the system
to provide optimal performance for meteorological
and ATD forecasts in the boundary layer.
Expanding the capacity of mesoscale models to
incorporate new initialization data sets.
Investigate mesoscale improvement that could
impact ATD, and representation of uncertainty in
Maturity of Technology 6.2/6.3 Capability/Thru
st Area CB Warfare Hazard Environment
Prediction