Dead Battery?

1
The Decision to Scrap a Wind Turbine
Opportunity Cost, Timing and Policy
Johannes Mauritzen, johannes.mauritzen_at_nhh.noNHH
Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen And
Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN),
Stockholm
October 10th, 2011
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Data and Methodology

• Main Data set from Danish Transimission Operator,
  Energinett
• Date of Installation and Decomission
• Coordinates
• Principality
• Capacity, Tower Height, Rotor Diameter,
  Manufacturer
• Duration Models
• Kaplan Meier non-parametric estimation
• Cox semi-parametric regression model
• Identification
• Semi-Instrumental Variables
• Semi- (regression) discontinuity
• Proportional Hazards Assumption

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Total Wind Power Capacity in Denmark
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Total Wind Power Capacity in Denmark
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Tariff for Wind Power
16.05.11
Fornavn Etternavn, navn_at_nhh.no
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Scrapped Turbines per Month
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Scrappage Policies

• April 1st, 2001 January 1st, 2004
• Retroactive to 1999
• Max capacity of 150 kW
• Subsidy of .17 DKK/kWh
• 3x scrapped value lt100kW
• 2x scrapped value gt100, lt150
• December 15th, 2004
• Max capacity of 450 kW
• Subsidy of .12 DKK/kWh
• 2x scrapped capacity
• limited to 12,000 FLH, max of .48 DKK total
  tariff
• February 21, 2008 extra .08 DKK/kWh hour added

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Kaplan Meier Survivor Function Estimate
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Kaplan Meier Survivor Function Estimate
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Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (100-200 kW)
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Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (400-500 kW)
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Turbine Scrappage Hazard Cox Regression
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Turbine Scrappage Hazard Cox Regression
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Turbine Efficiency Indicator
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Conclusion and Discussion