Planning for the 2020 US Census

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Planning for the 2020 US Census

• Presentation to the Joint UNECE-Eurostat Meeting
  on
• Population and Housing Censuses
• (Geneva, 7-9 July 2010)
• Daniel H. Weinberg
• Assistant Director for ACS and Decennial Census
• U.S. Census Bureau

2
The Context

• The rising costs of the 2010 Census were largely
  driven by three factors (1) declining
  self-response rates requiring the hiring of a
  large field staff, (2) paper-based and
  labor-intensive methods requiring a large field
  infrastructure, and (3) substantial investments
  in major, national updating of the address frame
  just prior to the enumeration (2009).

3
Planning Principles for Identifying Research
Projects(1)

• Reduces Costpotential that the project could
  result in overall reduction in census cost per
  housing unit versus historical trends
• Improves Qualitypotential that the project could
  result in overall improved census quality
• Reduces Field Timelinepotential that the project
  could result in reducing the amount of time that
  field data collection occurs (thus reducing
  recall bias)
• Tailored Response Modespotential that the
  project supports customization of response modes
  by geography and demographics (thus improving
  response and potentially reducing differential
  undercoverage)
• Leverages ACSpotential that project could
  integrate software and hardware improvements into
  the American Community Survey and that testing
  could occur using the ACS infrastructure (such as
  the Internet self-response test planned for 2011)

4
Planning Principles (2)

• Supports Continual Frame Updatingpotential that
  the project supports the updating and improvement
  of the address frame and spatial database over
  the decade
• Supports Agile Decision-makingthe potential for
  the project to be supported by small tests
  thereby allowing quick and informed
  decision-making, in support of a more flexible
  and resilient overall design
• Reuses Datapotential for the project to use
  administrative records or existing Census Bureau
  data, including ACS data
• Leverages Systems and Methodspotential for the
  project to leverage existing systems and/or
  methods to jump-start development of systems or
  processes
• Leverages Partnershipspotential for the project
  to use external partners to support the census
  design and
• Supports Organizational Solutionspotential for
  the project to lead to more agency-wide solutions
  across program areas, rather than development of
  throw-away solutions and/or duplication of
  systems and methods.

5
Goals

• The strategic outcome is to develop a design
  which strikes a balance between delivering the
  highest quality census while reducing costs and
  managing risks.
• The 2020 Census has four strategic goals
• (1) An Accurate and Complete Census,
• (2) Embraced and Valued Results,
• (3) An Efficient Census, and
• (4) A Well-Managed Census.

6
The Process

• Solicited bold and innovative ideas both from
  Census Bureau staff and key stakeholders,
  including several members of the National Academy
  of Sciences (NAS) Panel to Review the 2010
  Census, and Statistics Canada
• Consolidated the more than 600 ideas into
  approximately 75 possible research projects,
  assessed the methodologies needed to carry out
  those projects
• Assessed the potential research projects against
  the planning principles
• Prepared a budget initiative for work to begin in
  October 2011 (currently under review)
• Continue development of the research agenda as
  further external consultations take place,
  including from a workshop being planned by the
  NAS Panel.

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