Structure and Performance Trends in Irish Agriculture 1973-2003

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Structure and Performance Trends in Irish
Agriculture 1973-2003

• Alan Matthews
• Trinity College Dublin

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Task of the paper

• In the light of the immediate challenges to the
  future of farming
• to examine performance and structural change in
  Irish agriculture in the 30 years since EU
  membership
• Part of the context and rationale for the
  development of alternative farm enterprises

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Declining role of farming
4
Fewer numbers at work in farming..
5
More multiple job-holding
6
Trend in gross agricultural output
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Trends in input use
8
Ratio of input costs to output
9
The cattle breeding herd
10
Growth in milk yields
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Growth in sheep and pig numbers
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Declining terms of trade
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Aggregate farming income
14
Number and average size of farms
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Increase in minimum viable size
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Increased scale in dairying
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Sweeping change in the pig sector
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Widespread distribution of suckler cows
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Land market has collapsed
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What can we say about growth?

• Growth momentum appears to be exhausted
• not because of the exhaustion of productivity
  growth
• but because of constraints on increasing output
• the change in policy priorities to give more
  emphasis to environmental values
• and reducing economic incentives

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What can we say about income?

• Stability in the aggregate income from farming
  has been supported by increased direct payments
• but no budget to pay further compensation in the
  unreformed sectors..
• and inflation is eating away at the real value
  of existing payments..
• off-farm income will continue to increase in
  importance in farm households

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What can we say about structures?

• Rapid structural change at the enterprise level..
• .. and increasing minimum viable farm size..
• .. contrast with the unchanging pace of decline
  in farm numbers and employment regardless of
  economic conditions..
• .. and the constipated state of the land market

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What can we say about structures?

• Support to drystock enterprises is encouraging
  farmers to hold on to land because of the
  subsidies this attracts while most of the income
  is coming from off the farm..
• ..but drystock is now totally uncompetitive at
  market prices..
• Would funds be better directed at creating viable
  alternative enterprises to maintain rural areas?