Iran as a threat

1
Iran as a threat

• As early as 1995 the US accused Iran of beginning
  to pursue a nuclear weapons program and imposed
  an oil and trade embargo.

2
Irans leadership

• Hassan Rouhani and Ayatollah Khamenei are the
  leaders of Iran currently.

3
The Excuse

• In 2002, Iran announced that it has been pursuing
  construction of nuclear power plant for the
  purpose of enhancing fuel possibilities
• The US and many others believe this was a coverup
  for their nuclear weapons program.

4
The inspections

• 2003- Iran granted inspections to the IAEA
• IAEA reported undeclared nuclear sites and
  materials in violation of the NPT
• Iran persisted on its claim that the intention of
  the plutonium was not for weapons

5
The UN stalls

• The UN took the Iranians at their word and did
  not impose sanctions
• 2004- Pakistan admitted giving nuclear technology
  to Iran
• 2005- Iran continues to produce without SC
  sanctions
• China and Russia blocked most sanctions
  throughout the middle of the decade citing their
  rights to develop this fuel.

6
2009 Election

• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won his
  reelection campaign on June 12, 2009, by a
  landslide victory, taking almost 63 of the vote,
  while main challenger, Mir Hussein Moussavi,
  received just under 34.
• Accusations of ballot tampering and fraud led to
  wide-scale protests in Tehran
• Ahmadinejad's victory was announced just two
  hours after the polls closed, an amazingly short
  period of time since Iran's paper ballots must be
  hand counted.
• The protests, the largest since the 1979
  revolution, continued after the election.
• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the election "fair"
  and ruled out a recount or an annulment of the
  election.
• As many as 1,000 people were arrested during the
  protests and 20 were killed. There were
  widespread reports that prisoners were abused and
  some raped while in custody.
• In August, mass trial of 100 government critics
  began. The defendants, who were reportedly
  charged with inciting a "velvet coup," were
  denied access to lawyers and contact with family
  members.

7
Threats in Iran

• Homosexuals
• Women
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vxou92apNN4ofeature
  related (Women and Homosexuals)

8
Stuxnet

• In November 2010, President Ahmadinejad
  acknowledged that Iran's nuclear program had been
  dealt a blow in when its facility at Natanz was
  attacked by a computer worm, called Stuxnet.
• The worm destroyed about 1,000 of the country's
  6,0000 centrifuges. Israel and the U.S. are
  believed to be behind the attack in an attempt to
  slow Iran's progress toward obtaining nuclear
  weapons.

9
WikiLeaks

• Diplomatic cables released in November 2010 by
  WikiLeaks revealed that many Arab leaders fear
  Iran's growing nuclear power and have privately
  persuaded the United States to intervene.
• A cable from King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia
  Washington urged the U.S. to "cut off the head of
  the snake," referring to Iran. The cables also
  indicated for the first time that the U.S.
  believes Iran has acquired missiles from North
  Korea that could strike parts of Western Europe.

10
The UN Acts

• Starting in 2006 through today, 6 rounds of UN
  sanctions were put on Iran with no change in
  Iranian policy
• President Obama came into office vowing to engage
  Iran diplomatically, and in late 2009 Iran
  initially accepted an offer under which it would
  ship some uranium out of the country for
  enrichment
• In 2010 the IAEA declared that Iran had produced
  a stockpile of nuclear fuel to make two nuclear
  weapons with further processing. The report said
  that Iran had expanded work at one of its nuclear
  sites and also described how inspectors have been
  denied access to a series of facilities, and how
  Iran refused to answer inspectors' questions on a
  variety of activities.

11
Not Oil

• Although many nations in the world have passed
  unilateral oil sanctions on Iran, China and
  Russia have not and refuse to have that included
  in the SC sanctions. The SC sanctions are based
  on
• arms embargo
• freeze on Iranian assets abroad
• Ban the supply of nuclear-related materials and
  technology
• Banned Iran from participating in any activities
  related to ballistic missiles
• travel bans on individuals involved with the
  program
• prohibit the opening of Iranian banks on their
  territory
• prevent Iranian banks from entering into
  relationship with their banks if it might
  contribute to the nuclear program

12
Splitting

• Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the
  supreme religious leader of Iran, engaged in a
  public power struggle in 2011 that suggested a
  split among Iran's conservative basethe
  political elite versus the traditional
  conservatives, led by Khamenei.
• It began in April when Ahmadinejad fired the
  chief of the intelligence ministry, only to have
  the move rescinded by Khamenei.

13
Hikers or Spies

• In September, 2011 prior to attending the annual
  meeting of the UN, Ahmadinejad announced that two
  American hikers who had been imprisoned in Iran
  on espionage charges for more than two years
  would be released.
• Less than a day later, the judiciary said he
  lacked the authority to issue the order. The
  hikers, however, were released later in the
  month.

14
US/EU Sanctions

• In the summer of 2012, Obama administration and
  its allies imposed sweeping new sanctions meant
  to cut Iran off from the global oil market. 
• The United States imposed sanctions that could
  punish any foreign country that buys Iranian oil.
  However, it issued six-month exemptions to 20
  importers of Iranian oil, including China.
• The EU has put in place a complete embargo of oil
  imports from Iran.
• Iran responded to the new sanctions by announcing
  legislation intended to disrupt traffic in the
  Strait of Hormuz and testing missiles in a desert
  drill clearly intended as a warning to Israel and
  the United States.
• Even before these steps, Iran conceded that its
  oil exports were down 20 to 30 percent. Its
  currency has plunged more than 40 percent against
  the dollar since 2011. But so far the escalating
  sanctions have failed in their central goal of
  forcing Irans mullahs to stop enriching uranium.

15
Nuclear production

• In late August 2012, international nuclear
  inspectors reported that Iran has already
  installed three-quarters of the nuclear
  centrifuges it needs to complete a
  deep-underground site for the production of
  nuclear fuel. .
• The report by the International Atomic Energy
  Agency lays out in detail how Iran has used the
  summer to double the number of centrifuges
  installed deep under a mountain near Qum, while
  cleansing another site where the agency has said
  it suspects that the country has conducted
  explosive experiments that could be relevant to
  the production of a nuclear weapon.

16
Iran on Israel

• Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said
• Israel should be wiped off the map. (2005)
• The establishment of the Zionist regime was a
  move by the world oppressor against the Islamic
  world, (2005)
• In mid-August, Ahmadinejad, calling the Israeli
  government an insult to humankind in a speech .
• Speculation exists about whether the government
  should decide to order a military strike on
  uranium enrichment sites in Iran.
• Israel considers Iran to be its most dangerous
  adversary because of Irans suspected nuclear
  program, missiles capable of hitting Israeli
  targets and support for militant Palestinian
  groups on Israels borders.
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?v-58rUwyykDs
  Columbia Part I (Israel)

17
Israeli tension continues

• Tension between Iran and Israel intensified in
  early 2012 as Iran continued to make progress on
  its nuclear weapons program.
• In January, Iran announced it was set to begin
  uranium enrichment at a second facility.
• Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the
  death of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a nuclear
  scientist. A bomber on a motorcycle killed Roshan
  in Tehran during the morning commute in January.
  It was the fourth attack on an Iranian nuclear
  specialist in two years.
• Then, in February, Israeli officials accused Iran
  of being involved in multiple terrorist attacks.
  On Feb. 13, Israeli Embassy personnel in the
  capitals of Georgia and India were the targets of
  bombers.

18
Red Line

• In August 2012, the International Atomic Energy
  Agency reported that Iran's nuclear program had
  progressed even faster than anticipated.
• The report validated Israeli prime minister
  Benjamin Netanyahu's suspicion that Iran's
  nuclear program has continued to move at full
  speed despite the sanctions and diplomatic
  isolation imposed on Iran by an international
  community.
• The agency's report also confirmed that 75 of
  the nuclear centrifuges needed for an underground
  site had been installed.
• Netanyahu indicated that Iran was getting close
  to crossing the "red line" and that Israel had to
  determine the appropriate time to act to thwart
  Iran's nuclear ambitions.
• Netanyahu https//www.youtube.com/watch?vwwZW83V
  H6tA

19
Change in leadership

• Hassan Rouhani, a moderate cleric and Iran's
  former negoiator on nuclear issues, won June
  2013's presidential election, taking 50.7 of the
  vote.
• Thousands of Iranians took to the streets to
  celebrate Rowhani's victory.
• While he had the backing of reformists, Rouhani
  has long been a member of the country's
  conservative establishment. He served in
  parliament for more than 20 years and is loyal to
  Ayatollah Khamenei.
• He campaigned on a promise to reach out to the
  west and improve relations with the U.S., and
  after his election he promised to "follow the
  path of moderation and justice, not extremism."
• However, Rowhani said Iran would continue to
  pursue its nuclear program. U.S. president Barack
  Obama similarly expressed hope that the two
  countries would engage in a dialogue that might
  lead to progress on the seemingly intractable
  nuclear issue.

20
New path?

• Rouhani announced that Iran would never "seek
  weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear
  weapons" released 11 prominent political
  prisoners transferred oversight of the country's
  nuclear program from the conservativeand
  militarily aggressivenational security council
  to the more moderate foreign ministry exchanged
  letters with President Barack Obama and wished
  Jews a joyous Rosh Hoshanah.
• All of these moves reportedly had the backing of
  Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme religious
  leader, who wields ultimate power in the country.
  
• Rouhani "engaging with one's counterparts, on
  the basis of equal footing and mutual respect, to
  address shared concerns and achieve shared
  objectives.
• He offered to mediate between the Syrian
  government and the opposition and reiterated that
  the country intends to pursue nuclear power for
  peaceful purposes.
• "Mastering the atomic fuel cycle and generating
  nuclear power is as much about diversifying our
  energy resources as it is about who Iranians are
  as a nation, our demand for dignity and respect
  and our consequent place in the world."

21
Should we believe

• Rouhani speech notably lacked the anti-Israel
  bluster of his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
  and he was careful to refrain from making
  statements that would raise eyebrows at home or
  expectations by the West.
• He repeated his earlier claim that Iran would
  never seek nuclear weapons but would continue to
  pursue uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes.
• He also suggested that the U.S. and Iran could
  come to agreement on Iran's nuclear program
  within six months.
• In another remarkable turn, Rouhani called the
  Holocaust "reprehensible." The statement further
  illustrated how Rouhani is steering a markedly
  different course from Ahmadinejad, who denied the
  Holocaust on several occasions.
• Israeli was not buying it
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vykd-syzZ4ZY
  Ahmadinejad on Holocaust
• https//www.youtube.com/watch?vCCDcdnEjJHA
  Netanyahus speech

22
Temporary Agreement

• Talks about Iran's nulcear program between Iran
  and the five permanent members of the UN Security
  Council plus Germany resumed in October and again
  November after being on hold for six months.
• In a separate agreement with the International
  Atomic Energy Agency, Iran said it would give the
  agency inspectors "managed access" to nuclear
  facilities so they can gather data about
  activities.
• Iran, however, did not grant the IAEA access to
  the plant at Parchin, where inspectors think Iran
  tested triggers for nuclear devices.
• On Nov. 24, Iran reached a six-month deal with
  the five permanent members of the UN Security
  Council and Germany.
• Iran agreed to halt production of uranium beyond
  5, which means it could only produce uranium for
  peaceful purposes not install new centrifuges
  give UN inspectors daily access to enrichment
  facilities at Natanz and Fordo.
• In return, the crippling sanctions against Iran
  were eased, pumping between 6 billion and 7
  billion back into Iran's economy.
• Israel and Saudi Arabia both expressed outrage
  about the deal, fearing their power in the Middle
  East would be threatened or diminished by closer
  ties between the U.S. and Iran and by Iran's
  potential wealth from oil revenue and its nuclear
  know-how.

23
IRAN AND ISIS

• President Barack Obama has so far refused to
  officially work with Iran in combating Islamic
  State militants in Syria and Iraq. But Iran has
  sent its Iranian Revolutionary Guard to Iraq to
  help take out the militants also known as ISIS,
  and the U.S. began airstrikes in Iraq in August.

24
Progress

• By the time the next round of talks opened in
  February 2014, Iran's economy was showing signs
  of rebounding, with inflation falling from 45 in
  2013 to less than 30a result of the easing of
  sanctions.
• While representatives at the six-party talks
  disclosed little about the progress, they said
  they had agreed on a detailed framework for
  moving forwardcertainly reason for cautious
  optimism.
• Iran has said it is committed to reaching a
  nuclear deal, but analysts say the chances for a
  breakthrough were slim ahead of the November 24
  deadline that was set after the two sides failed
  to reach a deal by an earlier July target date.
• The two sides reached an interim deal last year
  to reduce U.S. sanctions in exchange for Iran
  freezing its uranium enrichment program.
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vfku6otZBO98 Iran
  speech

25
Moving toward a deal

• Once again, Iran and the five permanent members
  of the UN Security Council plus Germany failed to
  reach the November deadline.
• The sides decided on a March 2015 to outline a
  framework and June 30, 2015, for a full accord.
• In November 2014, Russia agreed to build twoand
  potentially eightnuclear power reactors in Iran.
  As part of the deal, Iran will buy reactor fuel
  from Russia, reducing Iran's need to enrich its
  own uranium.

26
The critics begin

• In March 2015, as Iran appeared to be close to
  signing a 10-year accord that would scale back
  its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting
  of sanctions, 47 U.S. Republican senators signed
  an open letter to Iranian officials saying the
  agreement could be reversed "with the stroke of a
  pen" by President Obama's successor. This was
  seen by many as a possible hindrance to the deal
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
  addressed the U.S. Congress in an effort to sway
  the Obama administration against continuing
  negotiations with Iran over nuclear weapons.
  Netanyahu called the negotiations to get Iran to
  freeze its nuclear program "a bad deal." In his
  speech, he said the deal that the Obama
  administration wanted "could well threaten the
  survival of my country" because it would not
  prevent Iran from having and using nuclear
  weapons. To the contrary, he said, the deal "will
  all but guarantee" nuclear arms in Iran.
• http//www.nbcnews.com/video/watch-lester-holts-fu
  ll-interview-with-benjamin-netanyahu-484685379921

27
Lets make a Deal!

• On April 2, 2015, the U.S., and the four other
  permanent members of the UN Security Council plus
  Germany agreed on a detailed, comprehensive
  framework for the future of Iran's nuclear
  program.
• Iran agreed to a lengthy list of concessions
  including
• Reducing the number of centrifuges spinning
  enriched uranium at Natanz, Iran's main nuclear
  facility, to 5,000 from about 19,000
• Not to enrich uranium over 3.67 for at least 15
  years
• Not to build enrichment facilities for 15 years
  that the enrichment site at Fordo will be
  converted to produce nuclear material for medical
  purposes for 15 years.
• To allow all equipment and centrifuges not in use
  to be placed in storage monitored by the
  International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• The IAEA will have access to inspect all of
  Iran's nuclear sites.
• In exchange, the U.S. and the European Union
  would lift nearly all the sanctions against Iran
  once the final deal is signed.
• http//www.cbsnews.com/videos/president-rouhani/

28
Praise for the deal

• President Barack Obama praised the framework
  agreement, saying it "cut off every pathway that
  Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon." He
  said the inspection provisions will ensure Iran
  complies. "If Iran cheats," he said, "the world
  will know it."
• The June 30, 2015, deadline passed without a
  final agreement. However, negotiators agreed to
  extend the deadline with the hope of reaching a
  historic accord.
• On July 14, 2015, Iran and the group of six
  nationsthe United States, UK, France, China,
  Russia, and Germanyreached a historic agreement
  to limit Iran's ability to produce a nuclear
  weapon in exchange for the lifting of crippling
  economic sanctions.
• "Today's announcement marks one more chapter in
  our pursuit of a safer, more helpful and more
  hopeful world," said President Barack Obama. He
  also said the agreement is "not built on trust,
  it is built on verification." Obama now faced the
  difficult task of persuading the U.S. Congress to
  endorse the agreement. Congress had 60 days to
  vote on the deal. Obama vowed to veto any
  legislation that blocks implementation of the
  agreement.

29
The deal lives

• Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu called
  the agreement a "historic mistake," and said,
  "Iran will get a jackpot, a cash bonanza of
  hundreds of billions of dollars, which will
  enable it to continue to pursue its aggression
  and terror in the region and in the world."
• Iran agreed to reduce its stockpile of enriched
  uranium by 98, place two-thirds of their
  installed centrifuges under international
  supervision, give the International Atomic Energy
  Agency (IAEA) permanent access "where necessary,
  when necessary", and accept a resumption of
  sanctions if it violates any of the terms. If
  Iran ever decides to break the accord, by
  agreeing to the restrictions, it will take the
  country about a year to develop the fuel to make
  a bomb.
• On September 10, 2015, Democrats in the U.S.
  Senate blocked a Republican-led attempt to thwart
  the nuclear deal with Iran, handing President
  Obama a major victory. Republicans did not have
  enough votes to end a Democratic filibuster on
  the resolution of disapproval.
• http//www.cnn.com/2015/09/27/world/rouhani-republ
  icans-iran-amanpour/index.html