QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA

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QUALITIES OF DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA

• Economic Policies and Governmental Performance

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OPTIONAL PAPER

• 10- pages in length
• Due in class on Wednesday, May 25
• Topic Anything related to course (but get
  clearance from TA)
• Approach An analytical think piece, not an
  exhaustive research paper
• Define a problem, frame a question, explain
  evidence and sources, and answer the question you
  pose at the outset

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READING

• Smith, Democracy, ch. 8
• Modern Latin America, chs. 9, 11, 12

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OUTLINE

• 1. Seeking Keys to Development
• 2. Declining State Capacity
• 3. Politics of Economic Growth
• The Arguments
• The Findings
• 4. Democracy and Social Welfare Infant
  Mortality and School Attendance
• 5. Poverty and Inequality

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IN SEARCH OF SOLUTIONS

• The Liberal Era (1880s-1920s)
• Import-Substitution Industrialization
  (1930s-1970s)
• The Socialist Alternative (1950s-1980s)
• Neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus
  (1980s-present)

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HYPOTHESES THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DEVELOPMENT

• H1 The greater the prevalence of democratic
  rule, the greater the provision of material
  benefits.
• H2 The greater the prevalence of undemocratic
  (authoritarian) rule, the greater the provision
  of material benefits.
• H3 The prevalence of democratic or undemocratic
  rule bears no systematic relationship to the
  relative provision of material benefits.

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Public Spending as Share of GDP ABC Mexico
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Patterns of GDP Growth, 1960-2000
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Table 8-2. Electoral Regimes and GDP Growth,
1960s-2000
_____________Electoral Regime__________ GDP
Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy
Growth () ()
() ---------------------------------------------
------------------- Low 27
26 24
Med-Low 20 31
29 Med-High
24 26
26 High 30
18 22
------------------------------------------------
---------------- 101 101
101 N 306
109 319 734
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Table 8-4. Electoral Regimes and Infant
Mortality, 1960s-1990s Infant
_____________Electoral Regime______________
Mortality Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democracy
() () () -----------------
-------------------------------------- High
48 17
12 Medium-High
22 32 24
Medium-Low 22
32 25 Low
8 19
39 -------------------
------------------------------------ Total
100 100
100 N 128 53 186
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Table 8-7. Electoral Regimes and Primary School
Enrollment, 1980s-1990s Primary
_____________Electoral Regime______________
School Autocracy Semi-Democracy Democrac
y Enrollment () () ()
-------------------------------------------------
------ Low 40 27
14 Medium-Low 15
14 38
Medium-High 31 14
27 High 13
45 22
-------------------------------------
------------------ Total 99
100 101 N
67 44 101 Note Columns may not
add up to 100 because of rounding.
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FOLLOW-UP STUDY

• UniverseMiddle income countries55 in
  lower-middle, 41 in upper-middle, N96
• Time frame1990-2004
• Units of analysiscountry-years
• Dependent variables
• Annual GDP growth rate ()
• Infant Mortality (per 1,000)
• Primary School Enrollment ()

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REGIONAL DETERMINANTS

• __Growth__ __Mortality__
  __Schooling__
• (1,091) (280)
  (370)
• East Asia (0, 1) .8961
  -6.7748 5.9032
• Eastern Europe (0, 1) -1.9764
  -11.3097 -.6376
• Central Asia (0, 1) -1.8337
  13.0827 1.4343
• Middle East (0, 1) .7693
  -1.3313 -.1781
• Sub-Saharan Africa (0, 1) -.2954
  18.9078 -11.8868
• South Asia (0, 0) ----
  ---- ----
• LatinAmerica
• Caribbean (0, 1) -.1103
  -2.4558 2.2513
• Constant 3.6313 71.2188
  82.5390
• R2 .0096 .6234
  .3227
• Significant at .05 level or better.

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REGION AND DEMOCRACY

• __ __ Growth__ __ Mortality__
  __ Schooling__
• (1,032) (266) (346)
• Latin American
• Caribbean
• Democracy (0, 1) .2373 -11.8388
  8.5104
• Other Democracy (0, 1) .3569
  -10.4353 4.5804
• Nondemocracy (0, 0) ----
  ---- ----
• Constant 3.9008
  83.8488 76.6599
• R2 .0690 .5336
  .2027
• Significant at .01 level or better.

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DEMOCRACY WITHIN LATIN AMERICA

• __Growth__ __Mortality__ __Schooling_
• (240) (48) (80)
• Liberal (0, 1) 1.1157 -12.5294
  .3389
• Illiberal (0, 1) 1.1872
  -.0239 -2.2475
• Semi (0, 1) 1.1818 4.2093
  2.3719
• Nondemocracy (0, 0) ----
  ---- ----
• Constant 3.1253 46.8197
  95.7521
• R2 .0609 .4680
  .1792
• Significant at .05 level or better.

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Patterns of Inequality, 1960-2000 ABC Mexico
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UPDATE GROWTH RATES

• 2000 4.0
• 2001 0.4
• 2002 - 0.4
• 2003 2.2
• 2004 6.1
• 2005 5.0
• 2006 5.8
• 2007 5.8
• 2008 4.2
• 2009 - 1.8

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UPDATE POVERTY LEVELS

• N
• ____ __(millions)__
• 40.5 136
• 48.3 200
• 44.0 221
• 2010 32.1 180

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UPDATE INEQUALITY

• 1980-2000 rising
• increasing lower-higher skilled gap
• uneven effects of international trade
• absence of public policies
• 2000-2006 declining (slightly)
• reduced lower-higher skilled gap (due to
  education)
• government programs (including remittances)
• 2007-09 unclear impact of global crash
• still high by world standards

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ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAMS (CCTs)

• Goals
• Empowerment of poor, improvement of life chances
• Increase of human capital
• Reduction of poverty and inequality
• Features
• conditional cash transfers
• social contract between state and beneficiaries
• typical conditions childrens attendance at
  school, of health care, nutrition
• payments usually made to women (mothers), not men
  (traditional heads of family)
• requirements for oversight (entry, exit, funding)

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CASES MEXICO AND BRAZIL

• Mexico Oportunidades (1997- )
• 5 million households
• 20 of household consumption
• payment to mothers
• major impact on school attendance
• excellent data collection
• 0.5 of GDP
• Brazil Bolsa Família (2003- )
• 11 million households
• 14 USD per child up to 3 children ( basic
  benefit 37)
• payment through debit card
• distribution gt human capital formation
• 20 decline in inequality
• 0.5 GDP
• Elsewhere Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador,
  Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru

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Perceptions of Poverty in Latin America, Europe
and the United States Percentages () who
believe that The poor are poor because
Society is Unjust They are Lazy The
poor have very little chance to escape from
poverty LAC - Average 65.8
28.3 62.0 Mexico 65.8 24.6
56.9 Argentina 74.0 26.0
74.5 Brazil 75.7 20.5
70.5 Chile 55.6 36.9
58.5 Peru 56.5 34.2
47.1 Venezuela 52.9 47.1
59.6 Uruguay 77.2 12.4
73.5 Dom. Republic 68.6 24.5
61.2 Colombia n.a. n.a.
55.8 Continental Europe 63.3
17.1 60.2 United States 38.8
61.2 29.5