Late 21st Century Monsoon Precipitation Projected in CMIP5

1
Late 21st Century Monsoon Precipitation Projected
in CMIP5
June-Yi Lee and Bin Wang (Climate Dynamics, in
press)
a) DJF
b) JJA
Changes in monsoon precipitation for (a) boreal
winter (DJF) and (b) summer (JJA) in CMIP5 from
19802005 to 20702095 under the RCP4.5 future
scenario. Stippling areas where magnitude of the
MME exceeds statistical significance, with
present-day wet regions outlined in red and dry
regions in grey.

• The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) of the four
  best models projects the following precipitation
  changes for the last part of the 21st century
  under the RCP4.5 scenario
• Mean and range of the Global monsoon as well as
  percentage of local summer rainfall to increase
  significantly over both land and ocean.
• Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon to begin
  earlier and withdraw later.
• Asymmetry in monsoon rainfall between
  eastern-western hemispheres to increase.
• NH precipitation to increase about 0.25 to 0.3
  mm/day by 2100 (1.3 per Kelvin global mean
  temperature increase) Southern Hemisphere (SH)
  precipitation to decrease slightly.
• Land monsoon domain over Asia to expand
  westward by 10.6.
• The significant projected increase in NH
  monsoon precipitation is due to increased
  temperature difference between the NH and SH,
  resulting in a significant strengthening of the
  Hadley circulation and atmospheric moistening
  against a stabilization of the troposphere.