Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org

1
?????????????? III???????????

• ?????
• (?13?)
• ???? ?

2
(No Transcript)
3
Source http//www.globalsecurity.org
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
????????????

• ?????????
• 7?5?(????)
• 1?? 333AM 500km (??) Scud-C (Kittaeryong)
• 2?? 404AM 600km No-dong-A
  (Kitterryong)
• 3?? 501AM Unknown Tae-podong 2
  (Musudan-ri)
• 
  (Exploded after 42 sec)
• 4?? 712AM 500km Scud-C
  (Kittaeryong)
• 5?? 731AM 550-600km No-dong-A
• 6?? 820AM 500km Scud-C / or
  No-dong-A
• 7?? 1720AM 600km? Scud-C / or
  No-dong-A

• ??????????
• 7?6? ?????????2?2????????
• (??????????????????)
• 7?7? ????(???????)????????????????????
• 7?9? ????????????????????????????

7
????????????????

• ???????????????????

• ?????
• ????????????(?27????)??? ? ??????
• 1994?(???????????)1998?(??????)???
• ? ???????????????????

• ?????
• ????2?(??????????????????)???
• Nodong-A ???????????
• Scud-C / Nodong-A / Taepo-dong 2 ??????
• ? ????????????????

• ??????7????????????????

???????????????????? Tae-Podong 2 ?
????????????????? No-dong A ?
(???????)????????????? Scud-C ?
(????????)????????
8
??????????????

• ????????

• ????????(????)??

• ???????????????????
• ????????

???????????????????????
??????(??????????)??

• ????????
• ??????????
• ??????
• ??????
• ??????? ? ???????
• ????????????????
• ?? ?????????????
• ?? ??????????????????????

????????? ???? ? ??????
????????
????????
9
?4???????????????

• ?4?????????????(2005?9?19?) ??
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  IAEA????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????

• ?????? (2002?9?17?) ??
• ???????????????????????????????????
• ????2003????????????????????

10
???????? (7?5?)

• 2.??????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????1998?8???
• ??????????????1????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????
• 3. ???????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????
• 4. ?????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????

11
??????????????????

• ??????????(??)
• ??????
• ??????????????6??????????????
• ?????????(6???)
• ?????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????

• ??????????
• ?????????
• ?????????????
• ???????
• ?????????????
• (???????)
• ?????????????
• ????????????????
• ??????????????????
• (???????)

12
????????????

• ????????(7?7???)
• ??????????????????????
• ????(?????????????)?????7???????
• ????????
• ????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????
• ????6???????????????????????????

• ?? ????? ?????

15??????9???????P5?????
????????????
??
??
????????????????
?? ??
???????????????
??
????????????
??? ??
???????????????
??
13
???????????????

• ?????
• 2006?????????????PAC-3???
• 2011??
• ?????(BMD????)4?
• ??????PAC-316?FU9(????)
• FPS-XX4?
• FPS-3?(?????)7?
• ???????????????????????
• ?????
• ???????Counter-Measures????
• ??????????
• ??????????????????
• ???????
• ? ??????????????

14
(No Transcript)
15
????????(7?6?)

• The latest successful missile launches were
  part of the routine military exercises staged by
  the KPA to increase the nation's military
  capacity for self-defense.     The DPRK's
  exercise of its legitimate right as a sovereign
  state is neither bound to any international law
  nor to bilateral or multilateral agreements such
  as the DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration and the
  joint statement of the six-party talks.     The
  DPRK is not a signatory to the Missile Technology
  Control Regime and, therefore, is not bound to
  any commitment under it.     As for the
  moratorium on long-range missile test-fire which
  the DPRK agreed with the U.S. in 1999, it was
  valid only when the DPRK-U.S. dialogue was under
  way.     The Bush administration, however,
  scrapped all the agreements its preceding
  administration concluded with the DPRK and
  totally scuttled the bilateral dialogue.     The
  DPRK had already clarified in March 2005 that its
  moratorium on the missile test-fire lost its
  validity.     The same can be said of the
  moratorium on the long-range missile test-fire
  which the DPRK agreed with Japan in the
  DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration in 2002.

The Japanese authorities, however, have
abused the DPRK's good faith. They have not
honored their commitment but internationalized
the "abduction issue," pursuant to the U.S.
hostile policy toward the DPRK, although the DPRK
had fully settled the issue. This behavior has
brought the overall DPRK-Japan relations to what
was before the publication of the declaration.
But no sooner had the joint statement been
adopted than the U.S. applied financial sanctions
against the DPRK and escalated pressure upon it
in various fields through them. The U.S., at the
same time, has totally hamstrung the efforts for
the implementation of the joint statement through
such threat and blackmail as large-scale military
exercises targeted against the DPRK.
The KPA will go on with missile launch
exercises as part of its efforts to bolster
deterrent for self-defence in the future, too.
    The DPRK will have no option but to take
stronger physical actions of other forms, should
any other country dares take issue with the
exercises and put pressure upon it.
16
???????(????)
?????????
?????????????
???????2?????
?????????????????? (?????????)
?????????????
???????????????
??????????
????????????????
?????????
???????????
17
??????????(???????????????????)
??????????
??? ?? ?????????? ?????????
????? ?? (0, -2) (-10, 2)
???? ??? (-2, -10) (??, -8)
??????????
???????????
18
?13????????

• ???????????????
• ???21??????????????????????
• ????????????

19
(No Transcript)
20
????????????

• 1995.11 ???8?????????????????
• 1996.4 ????????????
• 1997.9 ?????????????????
• 1999 ?????????????
• 2000 ???????????
• 2001.10 ???????????
• 2003.6 ?????????????
• ????????????
• 2003.12 ??????????????????????
• ????
• 2004.10 ?????????????????????
• 2004.12 ???17?????????????????

21
????????????????(????2003?12?19?)

• ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????(??????????????)???????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????BMD????????????????????????????????
  ???????

22
????????????????????

• (????)
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????
• (?????????)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????(??
  )?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????

23
(No Transcript)
24
(No Transcript)
25
????????????????
????? ?????? ?????? ?????
? ? ? ?
? ?
? ?
???????
???????
???
??
?????
?????
WMD??????
????????
???????? ?????
?????????
??????
??????
ODA??????
??????
????
ARF(????????)
????????
???????
??????? ??????
??????
????
??????
??????
?????
????????
??????
26
National Level Security ????
Regional Level Security ????
????????
Global Level Security ????????
PKO???
???????
????????????????
27
?????????????
??????
????
????????????
ASEAN???????
ASEAN???????
??????? ?????
???????
28
????????????????

• ?21???????(????????)
• ???????????
• ?????????
• ?????????????????????
• ???????????????
• ????????????????????????????
• ?????????(Security Community)??????????????????
• ???????????????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????

29
????????????

• ??????????????
• ?????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????
• ?????????????SFC?
• ?????/????????????????!!
• ??????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????

30
Security is like Oxygen You tend not to notice
it until you begin to lose it.
?Joseph Nye, Jr.
31
1??????????????
See You and Good Luck!