Climate Risk and Public Perceptions in International Climate Negotiations

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Climate Risk and Public Perceptions in
International Climate Negotiations

• Nick Pidgeon
• ESRC Climate Leader Fellow
• Understanding Risk Research Group
• Cardiff University
• DECC SAG 13th October 2011

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Climate Change a Human and Social Problem!

• Key drivers of anthropogenic climate change are
  human activities (e.g. food and heating,
  transportation, consumption, population growth).
• Solutions are typically new technologies /
  engineering interventions or economic instruments
  (plus lifestyle change)
• Climate mitigation or adaptation is unlikely to
  succeed without behaviour and lifestyle changes
  also acceptability of technologies and policy
  instruments
• See
• American Psychological Association Report on
  Climate Change (2010)
• Spence, Pidgeon and Uzzell, The Psychologist,
  Feb 09
• Spence and Pidgeon, Environment, Dec 09.

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Climate Risk and Uncertainties (See Pidgeon and
Fischhoff, Nature Climate Change, 2011.)

• UK Stern report - adaptation and mitigation
  within risk-based frameworks
• economic analysis must be global, deal with
  long time horizons, have the economics of risk
  and uncertainty at its core, and examine the
  possibility of major, non-marginal changes
  (2006, p25, emphasis in the original).
• IPCC 4th Assessment (2007). Conclusions expressed
  as likelihood and degree of belief (unlikely,
  likely etc.).
• UK Climate Projections 09 incorporate
  uncertainties to aid adaptation decision-making.
• The fat tail problem the non-zero chance of
  extreme warming (t gt 4deg) may dominate
  decisions (cf Weitzman, 07, 08)

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Dangerous (unacceptable) climate change is a
matter of science and values
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Climate Change Risk Perceptions Primarily
Europe/US

• Extensive research has shown
• People are concerned about cc (until very
  recently increasing), believe it is happening,
  but some still think it is natural variation
• Can confuse cc with other environmental issues
  (e.g. ozone)
• In Europe and North America view it as a distant
  problem affecting other people and times
  (psychological distance)
• Recognise the effects (heat, melting glaciers)
  but dont spontaneously connect these with
  anthropogenic causes (energy use, deforestation)
• Many causes (e.g. electricity use) invisible in
  everyday life
• Scepticism is now rising!
• Lorenzoni and Pidgeon (2006) Climatic Change,
  77, 73-95.
• Pidgeon (2011) GOScience/Foresight Intl.
  Dimensions of Climate Change Project.

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Recent UK Climate Change Attitudes 2006-2010
(source DfT, 2011)
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Ipsos-Mori / Cardiff University 2010
Climate-Energy Survey

• Core GB Sample 1,528
• Plus boosters
• Scotland 109
• Wales 185
• Total 1,822

Scotland n 243
England n 1,319
Wales n 260
Fieldwork in House between
6th January and 26th March 2010
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Scepticism and Uncertainty (2010)
Climate change is entirely caused by natural processes 6
Climate change is mainly caused by natural processes 12
Climate change is partly caused by natural processes and partly caused by human activity 47
Climate change is mainly caused by human activity 24
Climate change is entirely caused by human activity 7
I think there is no such thing as climate change 2
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78
Thinking about the causes of climate change,
which, if any, of the following best describes
your opinion?
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Scepticism - Potential Explanations

• Issue fatigue
• The economy..........
• Politicisation and distrust
• Resistance to unwelcome truths
• Media amplification (UEA-CRU affair)
• Lack of localisation for people (a global
  problem)
• Slippage between impact uncertainty and causal
  uncertainty
• - also are some more sceptical than others?

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Scepticism - Values and Demographics (Cardiff
2010 Survey)Poortinga et al (2011) Global
Environmental Change, 21, 1015-1024

• People Who Expressed Greater Scepticism about
  Climate Change in Our 2010 Survey Tended to be
• Older (55)
• Slightly Lower Income (SES)
• Conservative Voting
• Less Certain About the Issue
• Less Likely to see it Affecting their Area/Them
• Weaker Environmental / Benevolent Values
• Stronger Traditional Values

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Responsibility 2010 vs 2005
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(No Transcript)
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Flooding impacts on climate beliefsSource
Spence et al, Perceptions of climate change and
willingness to save energy related to flood
experiences, Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1,
46-49.
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Attitudes to CC - International Perspectives

• Survey coverage is patchy (better in developed
  nations) and always lags behind
• Issues of comparability (samples and questions)
• Qualitative data even more sparse
• Brechin, S.R. 2010. Chapter 10 Public Opinion
  A Cross-National View, In C. Lever-Tracy (ed.)
  Routledge Handbook of Climate Change and Society.
  Routledge Press.
• Pidgeon, N.F. (2011) Public Understanding of and
  Attitudes Towards Climate Change, pp67. Foresight
  International Dimensions of Climate Change
  Project, Government Office of Science/Foresight
  Programme.
• Lorenzoni, I. Pidgeon, N. F. 2006. Public views
  on climate change European and USA perspectives.
  Clim. Change 77, 7395.

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Climate Change not a top of mind
problemsource Greendex Poll in 2008, in
Brechin (2010) Public opinion a cross-national
view. In C. Lever-Tracy (ed.) The Routledge
Handbook of Climate Change and Society. London
Routledge, pp. 179-209.
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Source BBC World Service in Brechin (2010)
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Climate Confidence Monitor (Source HSBC, 26th
Nov 2008)
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Source BBC World Service in Brechin (2010)
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Source World Public Opinion in Brechin (2010)
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International Cooperation Source World Public
Opinion 2009

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Concluding Thoughts

• Who will act first on cc? Governments do need to
  demonstrate significant leadership here
• Support for targeted govt action (domestic and
  internationally) may be higher in many countries
  than is sometimes assumed
• Levels of knowledge / concern / support for
  action differ by country so national context
  matters
• Climate impacts (flooding) may bring new
  opportunities to localise cc for UK public(s) if
  the right narrative (around increasing risk of
  such events for the UK in the future) can be
  established at a policy level
• Rising climate scepticism - in the US, UK and
  some other (although not all) EU countries - is
  an issue, although should not be overemphasised.

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Acknowledgements Adam Corner, Baruch
Fischhoff, Irene Lorenzoni, Alexa Spence,
Catherine Butler, Wouter Poortinga.

• Website for our own survey reports
• www.understanding-risk.org