Environment and Security in Eastern Europe

1
Environment and Security in Eastern Europe

• Aleh Cherp, Ph.D., Central European University
• Alexios Antypas, Ph.D., Central European
  University

2
Environment and Security Linkages

• Environment, Tensions, and Conflict
• Stability and Trust Through Environmental
  Cooperation
• Interaction Between Environmental and Security
  Policies and Measures
• Environment and Instability Aspects of Security

3
Environment, Tensions, and Conflict

• Environmental factors can aggravate existing
  tensions between and within states
• Conflict arises over scarce natural resources, or
  when distribution is unequal
• Scarcity may be absolute or relative
• Social processes through which resources are
  distributed must be included in the environment
  and security framework
• Violent conflict over resources is relatively
  rare, most tensions remain sub-critical
• Sub-critical tensions bread hostility, distrust,
  and an unwillingness to co-operate

4
Stability and Trust through Environmental
Co-operation

• Co-operation over critical shared resources such
  as water has proven to foster stability in
  inter-state relations
• Co-operation over low-tension issues (no
  regrets projects) can build trust
• Especially appropriate for situations in which
  distrust and tension prevail
• Legal regimes create an atmosphere of
  predictability and dialogue, and co-operation in
  critical areas such as information sharing and
  early warning systems

5
Interaction between Environmental and Security
Policies and Measures

• When elements of one policy area affects another
• Environmental impacts of peacetime military
  activities
• Energy policy
• Environmental policy integration in defence and
  foreign affairs policies poses significant
  opportunities

6
Environment and Instability Aspects of Security

• Trends that undermine social stability and
  therefore state stability
• Rapid demographic change
• Human health crises
• Mass migration
• Environmental problems that undermine social
  institutions
• Over-exploitation of resources ? decline of rural
  economies
• Environmental pollution ? health problems,
  migration

7
Regional Context

• 845,000 km2
• 60 million inhabitants
• Wedged between East and West
• Conflicts, tensions, and transformations
  Transnistria, Orange Revolution, Crimea, energy
  security issues

8
Security Issues in Eastern Europe
9
Geopolitical Context

• European Union interests include
• Europeanization outside of the EU accession
  process
• to make a particular contribution to stability
  and good governance in our immediate
  neighbourhood and to promote a ring of
  well-governed countries to the East of the
  European Union.
• EU-Ukraine Action Plan, harmonization of laws,
  continued democratization and co-operation
• EU-Moldova Action Plan, co-operation in helping
  settle Transnistria conflict
• Environment as priority to help avoid conflicts
  over scarce resources.
• Russian interests include
• Maintaining transit to and from Western and
  Central Europe
• Protecting Russian minorities
• Retaining political and economic influence

10
Economic and Demographic Indicators
11
Environmental Legacies and Challenges of
Transition

• The effects of Chernobyl
• Soviet-era industrialization and environmental
  hot spots
• Military legacies of the Soviet-era
• Lack of attention to environmental issues and
  under-funding of state institutions
• Intensive use of natural resources
• Trade liberalization and consumerism
• Environmental Sustainability Index
• Belarus 47 out of 146 countries
• Moldova 58 out of 146 countries
• Ukraine 108 out of 146 countries

12
Interaction between Environment and Security
Factors
13
Water Resources and Key Ecosystems
14
Environmental Hazards with Security Implications
15
Key Environmental Issues with Security
Implications in Ukraine

• Continued environmental and social consequences
  of Chernobyl
• Industrial hot spots
• Concentrated in Eastern Ukraine
• Pesticide Stockpiles
• 100 large and 5000 small sites, 19,406 tons
• 2000 tons of POPs
• Import of hazardous wastes
• Illegal import from Hungary of over 25,000 tons
• Water management
• Water deficient areas
• Shared river basins
• Bystroe Canal
• Black Sea and Sea of Azov
• Sever Pollution
• Collapse of fisheries
• Transboundary biodiversity and Protected Areas
• 2 transboundary biosphere reserves
• Carpathian Convention

16
Security Issues with Environmental Implications
in Ukraine

• Energy security
• Heavy dependence on gas and oil imports from
  Russia
• 4 nuclear stations and large coal reserves
• Oil and gas exploration on Black Sea and Sea of
  Azov shelves
• Melange
• 16,764 tons at 8 sites
• Other military sites
• 2 million tons at 184 depots
• Crimea
• Land disputes
• Potential disputes over oil and gas rights

17
Environment and Security Issues in Ukraine
Water Management Land and Ecosystems Hazardous Sites and Activities
Tensions Black Sea, Azov, Dniester, other rivers Land disputes in Crimea Stockpiles of banned pesticides weapons Chernobyl issues waste import
Co-operation Black Sea, Azov, Dniester, Pripyat, other rivers Polesye marshlands, Carpathians, border natural areas Chernobyl issues
Interaction of E S Policies and Measures Development of domestic energy sources Stockpiles of weapons and rocket fuel Chernobyl issues
Disruption of Institutions Drinking water quality abundance Land degradation Stockpiles of pesticides
18
Criteria for ENVSEC Interventions

• Give high priority to actions likely to build
  trust and foster mutual learning
• Attempt to address more than one Environment and
  Security theme in the same actions
• Avoid overlapping with other programmes
• Draw on the unique capacity of the ENVSEC
  Initiative to deal with complex multidimensional
  issues

19
Summary of Issues

• The geo-political position of Eastern Europe
  strongly affects the way security and
  environmental issues interact in the region
• EE does not experience outright conflict but
  rather tensions that can be exacerbated by
  unattended environmental problems or calmed by
  co-operation over the environment
• In the medium and long term the East-West
  divide, population decline, economic
  restructuring, and energy dependence will have
  the potential to heighten transboundary and
  internal tensions and will keep environment and
  security issues high on the political agenda

20
Thank you !