Nuclear and Radiological Threat Reduction role of radiation measurements

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Nuclear and Radiological Threat Reductionrole of
radiation measurements

• Amir Mohagheghi
• Physicist/Program Manger
• Global Security and Cooperation Center
• Sandia National Laboratories
• September 16, 2014
• Albuquerque, NM
• SAND2014-17625 PE

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by
Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin
Company, for the United States Department of
Energys National Nuclear Security
Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
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Presentation Outline

• National Security Issues What is the problem?
• Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation
• Role of Radiation Measurements
• Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC)
• Other Examples

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Whats the Problem? Whats the Solution?

• . . .by developing atomic energy for peaceful
  uses, you reach the nuclear weapon option. There
  are not two atomic energies.
• David Bergman, former Chair, Israeli Atomic
  Energy Commission
• Goal Reduce the risk that states can acquire
  the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons
  Maintain a separation between peaceful and
  non-peaceful uses of nuclear energy
• Reduce the risk that states might believe that
  their neighbors were acquiring the capabilities
  to develop nuclear weapons
• Elements of a nuclear weapons capability
• Material
• Technology
• Expertise
• Motivation
• Solutions
• Restrict access to key elements
• Monitor the use of key elements
• Reduce the motivation

Restricting the dispersion of sensitive materials
and technologies can limit opportunities and
reduce misperceptions
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The Civilian Nuclear Fuel Cycle A Review
Plutonium and high-enriched uranium might be used
to produce nuclear weapons.
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Presentation Outline

• National Security Issues What is the problem?
• Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation
• Role of Radiation Measurements
• Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC)
• Other Examples

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National Security DriversReduce the WMD Threat

• Presidential Initiatives
• Speech on nuclear security, Prague
• Four year plan to secure nuclear materials
• Secure borders and interdict illicit trafficking
• WMD proliferation and Zero nukes
• Cairo speech, Egypt
• ST Engagement with the Developing World
• USG National Strategic Plans
• Nuclear Posture Review
• Preventing nuclear proliferation and terrorism
• Enhance regional security architectures
• Lead international efforts to bolster the NP
  regime
• National Security Strategy
• Reverse the Spread of Nuclear and Biological
  Weapons and Secure Nuclear Materials
• Advance Peace, Security, and Opportunity in the
  Greater Middle East
• Invest in the Capacity of Strong and Capable
  Partners
• Secure Cyberspace

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National Security Issues in the Middle East
Robert Gates on Iraq Developments in Iraq over
the next year or two will, I believe, shape the
entire Middle East and greatly influence global
geopolitics for many years to come.
December, 2006

• Issues
• Arab Spring
• Rise of Islamist Groups
• Israeli Arab Conflict
• WMD Proliferation
• Terrorism and Failed States
• Energy Security
• Expansion of nuclear energy
• Resource Management
• Water

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Middle East Geo-Political Background
Understanding the Context
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Middle East Language Families
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Middle East Ethnic Groups
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Middle East Religions
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Middle East Cultural and Historical Zones
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Different strategies for dealing with
proliferation
Stages in Proliferation
Motivation
Development
Achievement
Retirement

• Reduce Demand
• Security assurances
• arms control
• - regional security
• - penalties for violating norms
• - minimize utility of WMD

• Control Supply
• - export control regimes
• - IAEA safeguards
• - protection of weapons and tech
• limit production of weapons material

Respond to Threat - diplomacy - offensive
military and covert activities - emergency
response - threat assessment / detection

• Dismantle Weapons
• arms control / transparency
• international verification
• safe, secure material disposition
• - environmental restoration

Strategies to prevent, rollback, or mitigate
consequences of proliferation
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Nonproliferation Regime role of radiation
measurements
EXBS and INECP
UNSCR 1540
CTBT
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Presentation Outline

• National Security Issues What is the problem?
• Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation
• Role of Radiation Measurements
• Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC)
• Other Examples

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Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC)
Project

• All countries in the Middle East have radiation
  measurement capabilities associated with
• Power and research reactors
• Radioactive sources in medicine, commerce,
  industry
• Responding to accidental or intentional radiation
  releases
• Environment, health and safety
• Detecting the presence of radioactive sources
• Preventing the illicit use of radiological
  materials
• Disposing of radioactive sources
• Improving and standardizing nuclear monitoring
  and measurement capabilities in the Middle East
  are essential elements of developing an approach
  to such concerns

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The First Step

• As a first step, develop a set of internationally
  recognized standards for laboratory radiation
  measurements in the Middle East
• The project consists of
• Signup for the DOE MAPEP
• Receive test samples
• Analyze and report
• Follow-up with regional workshops to discuss the
  results and identify technical assistance needs
• Participate in targeted studies by the IAEA labs
  in Seibersdorf
• Annual workshops

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RMCC Workshops
Kuwait 2004
Oman 2007
Qatar 2005
Bahrain 2008
Bahrain 2010
Jordan 2011 and 2013
Morocco 2012
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The RMCC Project Benefits

• Increased confidence in data quality across the
  region
• Availability of a network of qualified labs for
  radiological measurements
• Build up the capacity in the region to produce
  reliable radiological data
• Improved scientist-to-scientist communication
• Provides a mechanism for sharing of agreed upon
  information
• Enables scientists in the region to work
  cooperatively to create indigenous solutions to
  the problems in the region
• Fosters the development of a network of
  scientific experts in the region
• Training Opportunities
• Austria The IAEA Labs in Seibersdorf
• Germany Federal Bureau for Radiation Protection
• USA Sandia National Laboratories
• Regional Opportunities

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The RMCC Project Next Steps

• Regional Ownership The Middle East Scientific
  Institute for Security (MESIS)
• Hosting next work shop in Amman, Jordan, October
  2014
• Formation of a Regional Advisory Council
• First Meeting Amman, Jordan, October 2014
• Proposed Technical Cooperation Projects with the
  IAEA and CTBTO
• Spin Off Project
• The Middle East Environmental Radiation Detection
  System

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Presentation Outline

• National Security Issues What is the problem?
• Strategies to Combat WMD Proliferation
• Sandias Global Security Programs
• Role of Radiation Measurements
• Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC)
• Other Examples

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International Treaties and Negotiated
Agreements Example Considering a treaty
involving nuclear warheads
START Radiation Detection Equipment
Warhead Technology Monitoring Project
The TOBOS simulated storage facility in
St. Petersburg, RU.
Storage Monitoring Collaboration Field Trials
Radiation Detection Equipment
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Global Cooperative Threat Reduction Example
Global Threat Reduction Initiative
Threat
BN-350 60th at Baikal
Consequence
BN-350 Casks on pad (November 15, 2010)
Prevention
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Global Cooperative Threat Reduction Example Gulf
Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Institute (GNEII)
Regional Scoping Trip November 2009
LOI Signed 16 Mar. 2010
Pilot Course Begins 20 Feb. 2011
MOU Signed 20 Feb. 2011
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Nuclear forensics is positioned at the center of
nuclear security recommendations for nuclear and
other radioactive material out of regulatory
control IAEA Nuclear Security Series 15
Traditional forensics
Nuclear forensics
Interdicted HEU
Morphology
Highly-enriched uranium (3.96 grams uranium
oxide) Trace plutonium (2.8 parts per billion)
Source IAEA Nuclear Series 15
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Safeguards Mission
International accounting and verification system
designed to ensure that fissile material is only
used for peaceful purposes.
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Nuclear Security Neutron scatter camera

• Fast neutron imaging spectrometer
• Variable plane separation allows tradeoff of
  effective area, image resolution

An MLEM-reconstructedneutron point source image.
Source SAND 2010-5245P and SAND 2011-9007P
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Antineutrino Applications

• Attributes
• Independent measurements of thermal power and
  fissile inventory
• Non-intrusive with no connection to plant systems
• Continuous remote monitoring
• Highly tamper resistant and cannot be shielded
• Potential Applications to Treaty Verification
• Reactor operations monitoring
• Complement the CTBTs International Monitoring
  System

Source D. Reyna, Antineutrino Factsheet
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Thank You For Your Time
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A New Kind of Proliferation
States with dual use technology
States with advanced manufacturing capabilities
Increased sophistication of weapons
Greater numbers of weapons
Non-state actors
Indigenous Development of Nuclear Weapons
State possessing Nuclear Weapons
State(s) without Nuclear Weapons