Plan for Today: Evaluating Theories and Introduction to Realism

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Plan for TodayEvaluating Theories and
Introduction to Realism

1. Learn several possible criteria for evaluating
   theories.
2. Speculating why realism is so dominant.
3. Introduce fundamental shared concepts of realist
   thought.
4. Begin distinguishing classical realist thought.

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Criteria for evaluating theories

• Explanatory power
• Fit with evidence?
• Start with false premises?
• Alternative explanations?
• Success in predicting events.
• Intellectual consistency and coherence.

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Criteria for evaluating theories (continued)

1. Scope in how many different areas does it
   apply?
2. Parsimony explaining a lot with few variables?
3. Detail or completeness of explanation.
4. Capacity for self-reflection and engagement with
   contending theories.

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Why Realisms Dominance?

• Been around a long time traceable to ancient
  Greece.
• Powerful critique of earlier forms of utopian
  liberalism.
• Persistently espoused by many policymakers.
• Simple, clear theory (parsimonious).

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Basic concepts realists share

1. Goal to describe the world as it is, not as it
   ought to be.
2. Key actors sovereign states.
3. International politics can be separated clearly
   from domestic politics.

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Basic concepts realists share (continued)

• States are rational actors.
• Rationality conscious and consistent pursuit of
  interests.
• Interest of states defined as power/ security.
• Maximization of power or security (depending on
  version of realism).
• Only significant difference among them is power
  relative to other states.

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Basic concepts realists share (continued)

• International system defined by anarchy (no
  higher legal authority).
• Pervasiveness of conflict.
• No room for morality in politics.
• World stays basically the same, operating in
  recurring patterns.

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Classical or Traditional Realism

• Ancient roots Thucydides.
• Realist Athenians vs. utopian Melians.
• Strong always win over the weak.
• Lesson tragedy befalls those who rely on hope,
  justice, and supposed friends.

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Classical or Traditional Realism

• Classical realism (20th Century).
• E.H. Carr The Twenty Years Crisis.
• Critique of liberal utopianism dominant after
  WWI.
• Response to failure of League of Nations and
  collective security.
• Creators of League if you believe in something
  enough, it will come true.

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Classical or Traditional Realism

• E.H. Carr The Twenty Years Crisis (continued).
• In reality, nations selfish concerns dominate.
• Aggressive actions by states are fully rational
  and natural.

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Classical or Traditional Realism

• E.H. Carr The Twenty Years Crisis (continued).
• Need to analyze politics objectively as it is,
  not as it should be.
• Clash among national interests inevitable.
• Only way to minimize war is balance of power
  among states.