APPROACHES,%20METHODS%20AND%20TOOLS

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APPROACHES, METHODS AND TOOLS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION
ASSESSMENT Richard J.T. Klein1 and Anthony G.
Patt2 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research, Germany 2Department of Geography,
Boston University, United States of
America In-Session Workshop on Impacts of, and
Vulnerability and Adaptation to, Climate
Change Twenty-First Session of the UNFCCC
Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical
Advice Buenos Aires, Argentina, 8 December 2004
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From CLIMATE CHANGE, SO WHAT? to CLIMATE
CHANGE, WHAT TO DO?
The implementation of adaptation options cannot
be informed only by the output of climate
models. Vulnerability to climate change is also
determined by local factors that are often
unrelated to climate change. These non-climatic
factors need to be considered in assessments and
may have to be addressed in order to reduce
vulnerability to climate change.
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INFORMATION DEMANDS FOR ADAPTATION Issue
identification and awareness raising. Priority
setting. Strategic planning and policy
development. Operational decision-making.
To meet these different information demands
requires a joint effort from climate impact
research and climate adaptation
research. However, the two types of research
appear to be moving into different directions.
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IMPACT RESEARCH ADAPTATION RESEARCH
Continued reliance on scenarios and models. Increased reliance on qualitative methods.
Recent improvements Increasing spatial scale and resolution Increasing number of climate variables Scenarios of non-climatic changes Stakeholder involvement Important characteristics Place-based studies that consider every situation as unique Climate change in broader context Focus on adaptive capacity Participatory approaches
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ISSUE IDENTIFICATION AND AWARENESS
RAISING Assessments are aimed at obtaining a
picture of The potential impacts of climate
change on human and natural systems, The extent
to which adaptation could reduce these
impacts. Typically relies on the use of scenarios
and models (traditional climate impact
research). Spatial scale is global to national,
sometimes more detailed temporal scale is decade
to century. Requires (often bold) assumptions on
adaptation.
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ASSESSING INCREASED FLOOD RISK DUE TO SEA-LEVEL
RISE Nicholls, 2002
Global sea-level rise scenarios
Vertical land movements
Relative sea-level rise scenarios
Storm surge flood curves
Raised flood levels
Coastal topography
Size of flood hazard zone
Population density
Number of people exposed
Protection status
Average annual number of people flooded
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PRIORITY SETTING Assessments are aimed at
providing insights into The relative importance
of impacts and the urgency to address them, The
relative importance of climate change compared to
other developments. Typically interprets
scenario- and model-based information in a
dialogue with stakeholders. Spatial scale is
regional to mostly national temporal scale is
year to decade. Example National Adaptation
Programmes of Action.
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STRATEGIC PLANNING AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT Assessme
nts are aimed at identifying Opportunities to
incorporate adaptation into sectoral planning and
decision-making, Current and future needs for
building adaptive capacity. Typically involves a
participatory approach to setting criteria for
adaptation and to evaluating adaptive
capacity. Spatial scale is regional to
sub-national temporal scale is year to decade.
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OPERATIONAL DECISION-MAKING Assessments are aimed
at evaluating The effectiveness of alternative
adaptation options, The most suitable time and
place for their implementation. Typically
involves the use of decision tools, possibly in a
participatory setting. Spatial scale is national
to local temporal scale is year to
decade. Example UKCIP, 2003 Climate Adaptation
Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making.
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MEETING INFORMATION DEMANDS Two decades of
climate impact research have led to robust
methods and tools, which continue to be improved.
However, they will always be able to tell only
part of the story. When going from the global to
the local level, the responsibility of relevant
actors shifts from facilitating adaptation to
implementing adaptation. There is a mismatch in
scale (both spatial and temporal) between
scenario- and model-based information and the
information required by those typically involved
in implementing adaptation options.
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INFORMATION DEMANDS OF DECISION-MAKERS Probabilist
ic estimates of climate change. Costs and
benefits of taking action and not taking
action. Importance of climate change relative to
other changes. Viability and feasibility of
alternative adaptation options.
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THE CHALLENGE The challenge is now to address
information demands of decision-makers,
by Investing in the further development of tools
for climate adaptation research, Convincing
people of the benefits of using these
tools, Combining the results of impact and
adaptation research.
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• A DILEMMA
• To support the implementation of adaptation
  options, there is a need to complement climate
  information with relevant local knowledge that is
  often unrelated to climate change. The focus of
  international climate policy has been primarily
  on facilitating adaptation at the national level.
• The UNFCCC and the GEF need to seek ways to
  encourage the development and use of methods and
  tools that are primarily generated through
  relevant local knowledge.

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CONCLUSIONS

• Climate models and simulation models provide
  information on the potential magnitude of the
  problem but have limitations in defining local
  or sectoral adaptation needs.
• Climate impact research needs to be complemented
  by climate adaptation research to enable
  decision-makers to set priorities, plan
  strategies and implement options.
• Climate adaptation research requires methods and
  tools that consider explicitly non-climatic
  developments 
• ?
•  The next important step for the UNFCCC and SBSTA
  can be in addressing these issues
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