www.citsonline.utcc.ac.th

1
?????????????????????????? 2558
?????????????????? ??.????? ?????????? ???????????
???????? ??? ?????????????????????????????????????
??? ??????????????????????
www.citsonline.utcc.ac.th
13 ?????? 2558
2
????????????????????????????? ????????????????????
???????????????????? ??????????????????? 2558
???????
?????????????? 2558 ????????????????????????????
2557 ??????????????????????????? 3.1 ??????????
234,745 ??????????? (1.0-4.9 ????
229,866-238,923 ???????????)
??????????? ?????????????????? ???????????
- ????????????????????????????? 3 ??
- ?????????????????????????????????? 4
- ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????
???? 2
3
?? 2558 ??????????????????????????????????????????
???? 2557 ????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????? 3.1 ??????????
234,745 ??????????? (1.0-4.9 ????
229,866-238,923 ???????????)
???????????

(1.0) 229,866 (3.1) 234,745 (4.9) 238,923
???????? ???????????????????? 11 ?????
????????
4
?????? (???????????) ?????? (???????????) ?????? (???????????) ??????????????? () ??????????????? () ??????????????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? ()
2556 2557 2558 2556 2557 2558 2556 2557 2558
???????? 105,587 106,156 108,423 0.2 0.5 2.1 46.2 46.6 46.2
 ???????????? 22,953 23,801 24,802 0.7 3.7 4.2 10.0 10.5 10.6
  ??????? 22,235.30 21,865 21,751 -5.2 -1.7 -0.5 9.7 9.6 9.3
  ?????????? (15) 20,075 21,352 21,280 2.7 6.4 -0.3 8.8 9.4 9.1
??????? (????) 40,324 39,138 40,591 2.0 -2.9 3.7 17.6 17.2 17.3
    ??????????????? 166 144 141 -12.9 -13.4 -2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
    ??????????? 10,873 9,567 10,202 -3.0 -12.0 6.6 4.8 4.2 4.3
    ???????? 13,015 13,005 12,914 4.7 -0.1 -0.7 5.7 5.7 5.5
    ?????????? 5,034 5,915 6,433 3.6 17.5 8.8 2.2 2.6 2.7
    ???????? 11,236 10,507 10,901 3.7 -6.5 3.7 4.9 4.6 4.6
??????? 32,976 31,852 33,086 1.0 -3.4 3.9 14.4 14.0 14.1
  ?????? 13,189 12,637 13,085 0.7 -4.2 3.5 5.8 5.5 5.6
  ??????? 3,371 3,954 4,252 -1.4 17.3 7.6 1.5 1.7 1.8
  ????????? 4,588 4,439 4,590 -4.0 -3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 2.0
  ?????????? 10,349 9,336 9,668 6.0 -9.8 3.6 4.5 4.1 4.1
  ?????? 1,479 1,487 1,491 -6.5 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6
???????? 78,722 77,678 81,166 2.8 -1.3 4.5 34.5 34.1 34.6
??????? (????) 18,985 20,589 22,476 11.8 8.4 9.2 8.3 9.0 9.6
    ??????? 4,256 4,529 4,827 12.7 6.4 6.6 1.9 2.0 2.1
    ??? 3,758 3,980 4,141 4.7 5.9 4.0 1.6 1.7 1.8
    ???? 3,788 4,184 4,608 21.2 10.4 10.1 1.7 1.8 2.0
    ???????? 7,182 7,896 8,900 10.8 9.9 12.7 3.1 3.5 3.8
???????????????? 11,542 11,470 11,813 0.5 -0.6 3.0 5.1 5.0 5.0
??????????? 8,106 8,245 8,458 -2.1 1.7 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
?????????????? 5,303 4,410 4,985 0.8 -16.8 13.0 2.3 1.9 2.1
????????????? 7,553 7,902 8,446 -2.2 4.6 6.9 3.3 3.5 3.6
??????? 5,182 5,564 5,997 -5.3 7.4 7.8 2.3 2.4 2.6
??? 27,233 25,062 24,987 1.4 -8.0 -0.3 11.9 11.0 10.6
????? 11,219 12,007 12,069 -23.6 7.0 0.5 4.9 5.3 5.1
???????????? 228,505 227,693 234,745 -0.3 -0.4 3.1 100.0 100.0 100.0
229,866-238,923
1.0-4.9
???????? ???????????????????? 11 ?????
????????
5
?? 2558 ??????????????????????????????????????????
???? 2557 ??????????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????? 3.1 ??????????
234,745 ??????????? (1.0-4.9 ????
229,866-238,923 ???????????)
?????????????????????????????? 0.5 ???? 2557
?????????? 2.1 (0.4-3.6) ???? 2558
???????????????????????????????????? ??????????
(????) ??????????????????? ????????????????????
???????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
3.7 ???? 2557 ?????????? 4.2 ??????????????
24,802 ??????? (3.3-5.5) ???????????????????????
?????????????????????????????? ????????????????
3.1 (?? 2557 2.2) ???????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????? ?????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
????????????????? ????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????
6
?????

• ?????????????????????????????????????????? 3 ??
  ???????????????????????????? 2555 ??????? 2558
  ??????????????????????????????????? -0.3
  ?????????????? 21,280 ??????? (-3.1-1.1)
• ???????????????????????? ?????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? 1.3 (?? 2557 0.8)
• - ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????? ruble crisis
  ??????????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????? GSP ??? ?????????????????? 1 ??????
  2558
• ???????????????????????????????? 19 ????? ???????
  40.5 ???/???? ??????????? 9.6 ??????????????
  2557 ?????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????

7
???????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
4 ?????????????? -0.5 (-0.8-0.9) ??????????????
21,751 ??????? ????????????????? -1.7 ????
2557 ????????????????????????????????????????????
????????? 2/2557 ??????????????????? ??????????
2558 ?????????????????????????????????????
?????? 0.8 ??????????????????? 0.9 ???? 2557
?????????????????????????????????????????
??????? (????)
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????? -2.9 ???? 2557 ????????????????? 3.7
?????????????? 40,591 ??????? (1.3-5.4) ????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????? ??????????????????????????????????????????
??? 5.5 (?? 2557 5.2) ???????????????????????????
????????????????? ???????????? ?????????????
???????????????????????????????????????? 2557
??????????????????????????????????????
??????????????
????????????????????????????? -3.4 ???? 2557
?????????? 3.9 (0.4-6.5) ???? 2558
???????????????????????? - ?????????
????????????? ?????????? 2558 ????????????????????
???????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????? -
???????????????????????????????????????????? 0.6
?????????? 0.3 ?????????????????? GSP
??????????????? 2558
8
?????????????????????????????????? -1.3 ???? 2557
?????????? 4.5 (2.0-6.6) ???? 2558
?????????????????????????? ???????????????????????
??????????
??????? (????)
?????????????????? (????) ????????????????????????
?? 4.5 (2.0-6.6) ????????????????? -1.3 ????
2557 ?????????????????????????? CLMV
????????????????????????????? ????????????????????
?????????????????????????
???????
?????????????????? ??????????????????????????
???????????????? 7.8 (5.4-10.7)
??????????????????? 7.4 ???? 2557 ???????????????
????????????????????????????????????? 6.4 ????
2558 ????????? 5.6 ???? 2557 ?????????????????????
???????? ?????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????
???
?????????????? ??????????????????? -0.3
(-0.7-0.1) ????????????????? -8.0 ????
2557 ??????????????????? 2558 ???????????????????
??????????????? ???????????????? 7.1 ( ?? 2557
7.4) ???????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????? ???????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????
???????????????????? ?????????????????????????????
??? - ???????????????????????????????????????????
????????????????? - ????????? GSP ???????
????????? ????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????
9
??????????????? 1/2558 ???????????????? 56,994
??????????? ??????????? 1.39 (YoY) ?????????
-0.42 (MoM) ????????? - ?????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????? - ?????????????????????????????
?????? ???????? ???????????????????? GSP ????
2558
(-0.71) 55,810 (1.39) 56,994 (3.20) 58,009
10
?????? (???????????) ?????? (???????????) ?????? (???????????) ?????? (???????????) ?????? (???????????) YoY YoY YoY QoQ QoQ QoQ
Q1/57 Q2/57 Q3/57 Q4/57 Q1/58 Q3/57 Q4/57 Q1/58 Q3/57 Q4/57 Q1/58
???????? 25,489 26,628 26,931 27,108 26,130 -0.7 5.2 2.5 1.1 0.7 -3.6
 ???????????? 5,541 5,910 6,095 6,255 5,955 3.4 5.7 7.5 3.1 2.6 -4.8
  ??????? 5,721 5,401 5,426 5,317 5,351 -1.0 -2.7 -6.5 0.5 -2.0 0.6
  ?????????? (15) 5,225 5,348 5,236 5,543 5,062 2.0 7.9 -3.1 -2.1 5.9 -8.7
??????? (????) 9,002 9,968 10,174 9,994 9,763 -4.2 8.1 8.5 2.1 -1.8 -2.3
    ??????????????? 42 35 31 36 34 -23.4 -8.5 -19.7 -9.3 14.4 -6.1
    ??????????? 2,410 2,562 2,377 2,219 2,615 -10.8 6.2 8.5 -7.2 -6.6 17.9
    ???????? 3,075 3,294 3,152 3,483 3,122 -5.0 4.9 1.5 -4.3 10.5 -10.4
    ?????????? 1,329 1,359 1,588 1,639 1,539 17.4 23.9 15.8 16.8 3.2 -6.1
    ???????? 2,146 2,718 3,026 2,617 2,452 -6.6 5.9 14.3 11.3 -13.5 -6.3
??????? 7,750 7,735 8,264 8,103 7,951 -6.5 5.8 2.6 6.8 -2.0 -1.9
  ?????? 3,313 3,056 3,296 2,971 3,144 -13.5 -1.0 -5.1 7.9 -9.9 5.8
  ??????? 901 999 1,023 1,030 1,028 25.2 14.0 14.0 2.3 0.7 -0.2
  ????????? 1,030 1,250 1,169 990 1,148 11.7 -6.0 11.4 -6.5 -15.3 15.9
  ?????????? 2,164 2,080 2,386 2,706 2,291 -14.4 16.2 5.9 14.7 13.4 -15.3
  ?????? 341 351 390 406 340 4.2 8.3 -0.2 11.2 3.9 -16.2
???????? 19,612 19,246 19,673 19,147 20,172 -0.1 -6.4 2.9 2.2 -2.7 5.4
??????? (????) 4,900 5,157 5,095 5,437 5,655 13.6 4.8 15.4 -1.2 6.7 4.0
    ??????? 1,151 1,197 987 1,194 1,259 1.9 5.1 9.4 -17.6 21.0 5.5
    ??? 1,017 1,022 944 998 1,124 9.3 4.8 10.5 -7.6 5.7 12.6
    ???? 1,085 1,049 1,042 1,008 1,233 21.3 -0.3 13.7 -0.7 -3.3 22.4
    ???????? 1,647 1,889 2,122 2,238 2,039 18.3 7.2 23.8 12.4 5.4 -8.9
???????????????? 3,093 2,977 2,713 2,687 3,074 -8.1 -3.9 -0.6 -8.9 -0.9 14.4
??????????? 2,022 2,042 2,274 1,907 1,948 3.2 0.7 -3.7 11.4 -16.1 2.1
?????????????? 1,194 1,157 1,254 805 1,232 -12.5 -31.5 3.2 8.3 -35.8 53.0
????????????? 1,880 2,072 2,092 1,859 2,176 6.5 5.7 15.7 1.0 -11.2 17.1
??????? 1,326 1,466 1,499 1,273 1,548 7.4 8.4 16.7 2.3 -15.1 21.6
??? 6,524 5,841 6,245 6,451 6,088 -6.3 -15.6 -6.7 6.9 3.3 -5.6
????? 3,360 2,884 2,884 2,879 2,741 -8.4 6.0 -18.4 0.0 -0.2 -4.8
???????????? 56,211 56,493 57,752 57,237 56,994 -1.8 1.1 1.4 2.2 -0.9 -0.4
55,810-58,009
-0.7-3.2
-2.5-1.3
???????? ???????????????????? 11 ?????
????????
11
??????????????????????????? ?? 2558
?????????????????????????????
????? ??????????
???????????????????????? ??????????????????? ?????????????????????? ???????????????????? ??????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? ?????????????? GSP ?? EU ?????? ????? ??????????? (Ruble Crisis) ????????????????????????????

12
???????????????????????? ??????????????????????
???????????????????????? 8 ???????
IMF
2012 2013 2014 2015
World Output 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.8
Advanced Economies 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3
United States 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.1
Euro Area -0.7 -0.4 0.8 1.3
Japan 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.8
Emerging and Developing Asia 3.7 6.6 6.5 6.6
China 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1
India 4.7 5.0 5.6 6.4
ASEAN 6.2 5.2 4.7 5.4
Emerging and Developing Europe 1.4 2.8 2.7 2.9
Latin America and the Caribbean 2.9 2.7 1.3 2.2
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan 4.8 2.5 2.7 3.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 5.1 5.1 5.8
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 2.9 3.0 2.8 5.0
Imports
Advanced Economies 1.2 1.4 3.7 4.3
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 6.0 5.3 4.4 6.1
Exports
Advanced Economies 2.0 2.4 3.6 4.5
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.6 4.4 3.9 5.8
  2012 2013 2014 2015
ASEAN
Myanmar 7.3 8.3 8.5 8.5
Cambodia 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3
Lao P.D.R. 7.9 8.0 7.4 7.2
Philippines 6.8 7.2 6.2 6.3
Vietnam 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6
Indonesia 6.3 5.8 5.2 5.5
Malaysia 5.6 4.7 5.9 5.2
Thailand 6.5 2.9 1.0 4.6
Brunei Darussalam 0.9 -1.8 5.3 3.0
Singapore 2.5 3.9 3.0 3.0
  2012 2013 2014 2015
World Trade Volume (goods and services) 2.9 3 2.8 5.0
Imports        
Advanced Economies 1.2 1.4 3.7 4.3
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 6 5.3 4.4 6.1
Exports        
Advanced Economies 2 2.4 3.6 4.5
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.6 4.4 3.9 5.8
???????? ??????????? ????????
Source WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, October 2014,
IMF
13
????????????????????????
OECD
2013 2014 2015 2016
World 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.9
United States 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.0
Euro area -0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7
Japan 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.8
China 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.9
India 4.7 5.4 6.4 6.6
Brazil 2.5 0.3 1.5 2.0
Russia 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.0
Australia 2.4 3.1 2.5 3.0
Canada 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.4
France 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5
Germany 0.2 1.3 1.1 1.8
Indonesia 5.8 5.3 5.4 6.0
Italy -1.9 -0.4 0.2 1.0
Korea 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.1
Mexico 1.3 2.6 3.9 4.2
South Africa 1.9 1.3 2.2 2.9
Spain -1.2 1.3 1.7 1.9
Turkey 4.1 3.0 3.2 4.0
United Kingdom 1.7 3.0 2.7 2.5
OECD ??? IMF ????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????? 2558
Source OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, 6 November
2014,OECD
14
?????????????????????? ????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????
- ??????????????? ??????????????????
???????

• ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ??????
• ?????????????? ?????????? 6 ??? 10 ??????

- ???????????????????????????

• ??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????? ????????????????????
• ???????????? ?????????????????????????????????????
  ??????? 6.31
• (???/ 1 ??????? ????????? 2.5 ??????????????
  2557 ????????????? ??????? 2557
  ????????????????????????? 2558)
• ??? ????????????????????????????????????????
  16.62
• (???/ 1 ???? ????????? 2.6 ??????????????
  2557 ????????????? ??????? 2557
  ????????????????????????? 2558)

15
2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 2558 ?????? ????????????? ?.?. ???????????????
?????? ???????? (????? /1 ????????????) ?.?. ?.?. ??.?. ??.?. ?.?. ??.?. ?.?. ?.?. ?.?. ?.?. ?.?. ?.?. ?????? ????????????? ?.?. ???????????????
??? ??? 32.93 32.62 32.36 32.30 32.53 32.49 32.09 32.00 32.20 32.44 32.79 32.89 2.49 6
???????? ?????? 3.30 3.31 3.28 3.25 3.23 3.22 3.18 3.18 3.22 3.27 3.35 3.47 9.21 1
??????????? ???????? 12,180 11,935 11,427 11,436 11,526 11,893 11,689 11,707 11,891 12,145 12,158 12,438 6.41 2
?????????? ???? 44.93 44.90 44.79 44.64 43.92 43.82 43.47 43.77 44.08 44.80 44.95 44.68 2.79 7
???????? ???????????????? 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.30 1.31 5.72 3
????? ????????????? 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.30 - 4.20 4
??????? ????? 3,995 3,984 4,002 4,015 4,025 4,039 4,045 4,058 4,076 4,081 - - 0.89 8
??? ??? 8,026 8,021 8,036 8,046 8,050 8,045 8,041 8,041 8,039 8,043 8,048 - 0.08 9
???? ???? 985 984 970 963 964 971 973 971 980 995 1,025 - 5.39 5
???????? ??? 21,036 21,036 21,036 21,036 21,036 21,116 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 0.00 10
??? ???? 6.05 6.08 6.17 6.22 6.24 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.12 6.19 -0.21
??????? ???? 62.11 62.16 60.95 60.35 59.28 59.74 60.10 60.87 60.90 61.37 61.68 62.60 4.16
????? ?????????????? CEIC XXX ??????? XXX
???????
16
??????????????????????? ????????????????????????
???????????
??????????????
?????????????? ??????????????

• ???????????? ?????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????? 5.0
• ???????????? ?????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????2.1
• ??????? ???????????????????????????????????? 0.54

- ??????????????????????????? ???????????????
17
???????????????????????
Growth ()
- 33.12
- 31.61
- 22.85
- 19.63
- 20.00
- 0.09
1.76

• ?????????????????????????????
• ???????????? the Organization of the Petroleum
  Exporting Countries (OPEC) ???????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????? ???????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????

Source Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 9,
2014 U.S. Energy Information Administration
18
??????????????????????????????????????
?????? ????????? ?????????? ??????
?????? 4.3 1.5 5.4
????????????? 34.7 71.4 36.0
??????? 16.3 7.4 22.1
????1/ 0.0 3.3 2.7
???????????2/ 44.7 16.4 33.8
??? 100.0 100.0 100.0
???????? 1/???? ???? ?????????? ??????????
???????????? ??????? 2/
??????????? ???? ????????????? ???????
19
????????????????????????????? ???????????????
?????????? ??????????????????? ????????????????????
????????? 4.3 16.3
?????????? 2.2 18.2
????????????????? 1.1 9.4
???????????? 0.6 12.5
???????? 16.1 42.3
????????????????? 28.8 11.7
?????????? 2.2 18.2
20
?????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????? ??????????????????? ????????????????????
?????????? 1.5 7.4
????????? 9.8 16.3
??????????? 1.1 6.7
??????????????????? 1.2 6.4
?????? 0.9 10.5
??????????? 0.6 13.5
????????? ???????????? 0.7 14.4
?????????????????? 1.8 7.3
????????????????????? 2.4 8.9
????????????????????????????? 0.4 4.6
??????? 0.6 5.5
21
??????????????????????????????????????
?????????? ??????????????????? ????????????????????
?????? 5.4 22.1
????? ????? 7.2 15.0
???????? 1.5 8.9
???????? 1.8 10.5
????? 29.2 14.0
??????????????? 21.2 89.1
??????????????????????????????????? 33.1 11.0
??????????????????? 41.4 10.1
????????????????????????????? 29.8 10.9
????????????????????????? 31.7 18.6
???????????????? 24.8 16.4
22
?????????????????????????????????????
????????? 4.3
???????????????????? 4.8
????????????? 4.6
???????????????????? 5.0
??????????????????? 28.8
??????????????????, ??????? 18.8
?????????????? 5.0
?????????? 1.5
?????????????????? ????????????? 12.2
?????????????????????????????????? 10.2
??????????????????? 20.6
???????????????????????????? 10.8
?????????????????????????????? 9.6
?????? ???????? ??????? 9.5
?????? 5.4
???????????? 10.5
??????????????? 21.2
??????????????????????????????????? 33.1
??????????????????? 41.4
????????????????????????????? 29.8
????????????????????????? 31.7
???????????????? 24.8
??????????????????????? 8.6
23
- ????????????????????????????????
?? 2557 ??????????????????? 1.23
??????????????????????????????? 0.73 ???? 2558
????????????????????????????????????? 1.21
?????????????????????????????????? CLMV
??????????????????????????????? ????
?????????????? ?????? ??????????? ??????????????
???????????????????????? ?????????????????????
???????
????????????? (10) ???????????????????????????
2557 ??? 6.68 ???? 6.92 ???? 2556
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
??? 3.54
24
- ????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????
??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ???????????????????? ?? 57 ??? 56
2552 2553 2554 2555 2556 2557 ???????????????????? ?? 57 ??? 56
??????? (????) 5.75 6.14 5.95 5.92 5.74 5.82 1.33
??? 1.26 1.32 1.24 1.24 1.22 1.23 0.73
??????????????? 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 4.53
??????????? 1.11 1.18 1.25 1.21 1.15 1.12 -2.81
???????? 1.60 1.74 1.68 1.66 1.66 1.71 3.20
?????????? 0.45 0.51 0.44 0.44 0.42 0.47 10.44
???????? 1.27 1.32 1.27 1.29 1.23 1.23 -0.03
??????? (????) 0.58 0.59 0.65 0.82 0.94 1.10 17.07
??????? 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 18.26
??? 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 31.24
???? 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.14 119.81
???????? 0.48 0.50 0.54 0.71 0.80 0.87 8.73
??????? (10) 6.33 6.73 6.60 6.74 6.68 6.92 3.54
???????3 19.74 20.85 19.83 20.34 20.14 20.24 0.51
??? 11.87 12.43 11.97 12.48 12.75 12.89 1.10
??????? 5.03 5.35 4.88 4.82 4.32 4.17 -3.47
????????? 2.83 3.06 2.98 3.04 3.08 3.19 3.64
??????? 1.07 1.21 1.29 1.25 1.26 1.30 3.11
????? 73.94 72.42 73.56 72.92 73.18 72.84 -0.46
???????????? 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 0.00
?????????????????????? 2558 ????? 1.21
???????? ?????????????????????????????? 75
????????
25
- ?????????????? GSP ????????????????????????????
?????????? ?????? ???????? ???????????????????????
???? (Generalized System of Preference) ???
????????????????????????????? 1 ?????? 2558
????????? ????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
????????? ?????????????????????????????????? (Most
Favoured Nation MFN) ???????????????????????????
????????????????????? ????????????????????????????
???????????
??????????? EU (28) ????????????????? 10.3
???????????? 90 ??????????????? EU (15)
?????????? 9.2 ??????????????? ???? 2557 ????
21,352 ??????????? ???? 2557
??????????????? ????????????????? 0.65
??????????????? ???? 1,487 ??????????? ???? 2557
?????????????? ????????????????? 0.48
??????????????? ???? 1,127 ??????????? ???? 2557
26
- ?????????????? GSP ??????????

• ?????????????????? GSP ???????????????????????????
  ?????????? ???????????????????????????
  ??????????? ?????????????
• ?? 2557 ????????? ???????????????????? GSP ?????
  50 ?????? ????
• ??????????????????? ???? ????????????????????????
  ??? ???? ???????????, ??????/?????????????????,
  ????? ?????????, ??????????????? ????? ??????
  ??????, ??? ?????, ?????????????
  ???????????????????????????????? ??? ???????????
• ??????????
• ??????????????????????
• ????????????? 1 ?????? 2558 ?????????
  ???????????????????? GSP ?????????????????????????
  6,200 ??????

27
- ???????????????????????? GSP ??????????
?????? GSP ??? EU ??????????????????????????? EU
????
?????????????????????????????????? 0 ????
???????????? (?????????? 4.5)
????????? (?????????? 2.7)
??????????? (?????????? 2.9)
???????????????? (?????????? 2.2-2.7)
??????? (?????????? 3.5-10)
?????????????????????? ??????????????

• ????????????????????????????? 1 ?? ???? 2557
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????????????? GSP
  ???????  ????   ???????? ??? ????????? ?????????

????? ??????
2556 2557 2558
?????? EU 100.00 100.00 100.0
????? GSP 61.23 49.25 0.0
???????? GSP ?????????????? EU 40.80 39.09 0.0
??????????? GSP 66.63 79.37 0.0
????? ?????????????? ?????????????????????????
28
- ???????????????????????? GSP ??????????
???????????????????????????????????????
?? ?????
EU ???????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????
??????????????????????????? GSP ??? EU?? 2558
???????????????????? 2558
???????????????????????????? ??????????????????????? 0
???????????? (?????????? 4.5)
????????? (?????????? 2.7)
??????????? (?????????? 2.9)
???????????????? (?????????? 2.2-2.7)
??????? (?????????? 3.5-10)
??????????? ???????????????
(???????????)
??????? 60.1
?????????????????? 33.4
??????? 20.8
??????/??????? 20.2
?????????????? 17.7
???????????? 12.2
????????? 11.0
??????????? 9.3
???????????????? 9.3
??????? 6.6
????? 49.0
??? 249.6
29
- ???????????????????????? GSP ??????????
????????????????????????? GSP ??? EU ???? 2558
???????????????? EU (15) ??? EU ??? GSP ????? ????????????????? ????? ?????????????????
??????????????????? 848 (489-1,205)

• ???????
• ????????
• ???????????
• ??????????

?????????
??????????????????? ??????????????????? ?????? (???????????) ?????? (???????????) ??????????????? () ??????? ()
??????????????????? ??????????????????? 2557 2558 ??????????????? () ??????? ()
EU (15) ??? GSP 21,352 21,280 -0.3 3.98
EU (15) ?????? GSP 21,352 22,128 3.6 3.98
????????? ??? GSP 227,693 234,745 3.1 0.36
????????? ?????? GSP 227,693 235,592 3.5 0.36
???????? ????????
??????????????????? CLMV ???????????????? CLMV
???????????????????? GSP 249.6 ??????????? ???????????????? gt 249.6 ??????????? ????? - ??????? ??? ??? ???? ?????? EBA - ???????? ?????? GSP
??????????
EBA (Every thing but Arms) ??????????????????????
?????????????
30
- ?????????????? GSP ?????????
GSP ????????? ???????????? ?????????????? 1
?????? 2558 ????????? (????????????????? 72
?????? ????  ???  ???????  ?????????  ???????????
??????????? ??????????????????????????) ??????
????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????? ??????
????????????????? ??????? ???????????????

• ???????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????????? 0.65
• ???????????????????????? GSP ???????
• ??????????????????????????????? GSP
  ????????????????????????????? 41.36
  ?????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????? GSP ???????????? CLMV

???????????????????????????? ??????????????????????? 0
????
??????????
????????????
????????????????
?????????????
???????????????????????????????
31
- ?????????????? GSP ????????
???? GSP ????? ???????????????????????????????????
????????????? ????????????????????????????????????
???? GSP ???????????????????????? ?????????????
GSP ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????
? 2,500 ?????? ?????????????????? ????????????????
???????????????????????????????
?????????????????????? GSP ????????

• ??????????????????????????????/????
• ?????????????????????????? 5 ???
• ???????????????????
• ???????????
• ???????????????????
• ??????????????????????
• ??????????????????
• ???????????????
• ????????????

• ??????????????????????????????????????? 0.48
  ???????????????
• ???????????????????????????? ?????????????????????
  ?? ??????? ???????? ??????????????????

32
?????????????????????????????? GSP ?????? EU
?????? ????????
EU ?????? ????? ???
??????? (???????????) 848 30 65 943
??????? (???????) 28,408 1,019 2,165 31,592
???????????????????? () 0.36 0.01 0.03 0.40
33
?????????? ???????????????????????????????????????
????? GSP ?? ??????

• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  GSP ?????????????????????????????????????????? EU
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????
• ???????????????????????????? ???? ??????????????
  ????????????????? ????????????????????????????????
  ????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????? EU
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????? ???????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????? EU ???????????
  ???????????? FTA ???????????? EU
  ???????????????????/????????? ???? ?????????? GSP
  ???????????

34
- ??????????? (Ruble Crisis)
?????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????? 0.54
?????????? 1,207 ??????????? ?????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????????

• ?????????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ???????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????? ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????

- ???????????????????????????????
???????????
- ???????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????? 45
???????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????
35
- ????????????????? 2558 ?????????????
Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials Index
Monthly Price - Index Number
Jan. 14
???????????? -5.6
Dec. 14
Description Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials
Index, 2005 100, includes Timber, Cotton, Wool,
Rubber, and Hides Price Indices Unit Index
Number Source International Monetary Fund
Rice Monthly Price - US Dollars per Metric Ton
Crude Palm Oil Futures End of Day Settlement Price
Jan. 14
???????????? -6.8
???????????? -18.8
Jan. 14
Dec. 14
Dec. 14
Description Rice, 5 percent broken milled white
rice, Thailand nominal price quote, US Dollars
per Metric Ton Unit US Dollars per Metric
Ton Source World Bank
Description Palm oil, Malaysia Palm Oil Futures
(first contract forward) 4-5 percent FFA, US
Dollars per Metric Ton Unit US Dollars per
Metric Ton Source World Bank
36
Sugar Monthly Price - US cents per Pound
???????????? -4.6
Jan. 14
Description Sugar, Free Market, Coffee Sugar and
Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) contract no.11 nearest
future position, US cents per Pound Unit US
cents per Pound
Dec. 14
Source World Bank
Rubber Monthly Price - US cents per Pound
???????????? -26.3
Description Singapore Commodity Exchange, No. 3
Rubber Smoked Sheets, 1st contract, US cents per
Pound Unit US cents per Pound
Jan. 14
Dec. 14
Source World Bank
37
University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce UTCC
?????????????????????... ?????????????????????????
???? ?????????????????????? ???
02-697-6348-9 www.citsonline.utcc.ac.th
The Center for International Trade Studies CITS