Temporal Framework for Monitoring

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Temporal Framework for Monitoring Rangeland
Sustainability A Discussion By Robert A.
Washington-Allen Research Development
Staff Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge
National Laboratory P.O. Box 2008, MS 6407 Oak
Ridge, TN 37831-6407 E-mail washingtonra_at_ornl.gov

2
What is a temporal framework? What is
monitoring? What is condition? What is
trend? What is a standard or reference? When do
you begin monitoring? How do you relate
indicators? What about causality?
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Monitoring (Applied Ecology) Objectives
1. Detect change in the extent and distribution
of indicators. 2. Assess rangeland condition and
trend. 3. Suggest causality 4. Assess the risk
of future crises. ONeill, R.V., C. Hunsaker,
and D. Levine. 1994. Monitoring challenges and
innovative ideas. Proc. Int. Sym. Ecological
Indicators.
4

• Monitoring Challenges
• Landscapes are middle-number systems.
• When indicators are re-measured some values will
  have changed
• Does the change indicate a trend or normal
  fluctuations (historical variation)?
• Reliable evidence of trends require monitoring
  over long periods.
• For rangelands, current literature suggests 15 to
  20 years if you wish to capture periodic climatic
  events (e.g., ENSO, La Nina, and PDO) or fire
  return intervals.

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Illustration of Ecological Statics and Dynamics
From Turner, M.G., R.H. Gardner, and R.V.
ONeill. 2001. Landscape ecology in theory and
practice. Springer-Verlag, New York, N.Y.
6
Estimated frequency Of wilfires in
Sagebrush steppe Soil regeneration
Lifetime of most perennial plants
Estimated frequency of severe droughts
Rainfall event
Landsat overpass
Vegetation greenup
The relationship of space and time to observable
phenomena. The paradigm suggests the scales at
which phenomena will act, provides an
investigator with the constraints on experimental
design, and suggests the tools required to detect
phenomena of interest (adapted from Graetz 1987).
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A principle of Ecosystem science and Landscape
Ecology is that before any ecosystem or landscape
can be studied it must be bounded in space and
time. Grain and Extent must be explicitly
stated.
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Grain constrains the spatial and temporal scale
of observation. The coarsest resolution defines
the studies grain.
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NALC MSS 58m
MSS 79m
10
Condition A one-time measure of change in an
indicator relative to a standard. Trend A
temporal measure of change in an indicator. The
magnitude of a trend can be measured using a
significant regression coefficient of the
indicator versus time. Standard The reference
that provides the basis for comparison that
allows determination of a significant change.
Reference conditions can be subjective or
objective the average (mean, mode, or median),
maximum, or minimum conditions.
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Ways to Monitor Levels of Control
Differ Experimental Laboratory Lab-Field Field
Retrospective Studies Opportunistic, but usually
lack controls and replications. Studies of longer
temporal scales depend upon conditions which may
no longer exist, i.e., suffer from lack of
analogues for contemporary comparisons. Computer
Simulations Also Note Regional scale studies
Usually lack controls and replication,
consequently not amenable to traditional
statistical designs.
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However, the systematic determination of a
statistically significant trend (or an
ecologically significant trend)may take years to
determine. ONeill, R.V., C. Hunsaker, and D.
Levine. 1994. Monitoring challenges and
innovative ideas. Proc. Int. Sym. Ecological
Indicators.
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Time series analyses set the analytical domain
for trend data. This includes Data
transformations Log Moving average Differencing
Analystics Autocorrelation Autoregression Non-lin
ear time series Spectral/Fourier Cross
correlation Intervention
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How do these metrics relate to each other and
through time?
The example above can be viewed either as 3
different sites being compared or 1 site moving
through its multivariate envelope.
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Historical Variation
CHRONIC DISTURBANCE ACUTE DISTURBANCE
hysteresis
attribute
attribute
time
time
Adapted from Westman (1988), Hosten (1995).
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0.1
Increasing Greenness
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
Increasing Heterogeneity of Greenness
95
0.05
SAVI Variance
0.04
84
96
82
74
0.03
80
97
89
76
72
85
79
75
86
73
0.02
87
81
91
90
88
0.01
0
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
SAVI Mean
The dry season soil-adjusted vegetation index
(SAVI) statistical phase portrait for the
sagebrush steppe portion of Deseret Land
Livestock Company ranch from 1972 to 1997.
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1972 1973
1974
1975 1976
1979
1980 1981
1982
1984 1985
1986
1987 1988
1989
1990 1991
1992
Dry Season
1994 1995
1996 1997
The dry season time series of soil-adjusted
vegetation index (SAVI) images of the sagebrush
steppe portion of Deseret Land Livestock
Company ranch from 1972 to 1997.
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Shrubland (B)
Native Grassland (G)
T4
Threshold
T3
T5
T3
T4,T6
Threshold
T3,T5
Introduced Grasses (F)
gt 60 Shrub Dense Shrubland (D)
T1 fire, T2 grazing, T3 heavy grazing, T4
cultural inputs, T5 drought, T6 wetter than
average years
sparse grass/ bare soil
shrub
dense grass/ bare soil
denser grass/ bare soil
grass/ bare soil
Spatial hypothesis of temporal change in
landscape pattern and structure in relation to
climate change, grazing, and fire. The spatial
map was adapted from West and Young (2000).
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The growth form and land cover (bare ground) time
series of thematic maps of the sagebrush steppe
dominated portion of Deseret Land Livestock Co.
Ranch. The maps were derived from dry season
Landsat MSS and TM satellite imagery from 1972 to
1997.
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Grass Cover Shrub Cover
Grass Cover
Shrub Cover
Contagion
Time
The predicted response of growth-form composition
and contagion to relatively high frequency of
droughts and high grazing intensity. These
predictions are the results of 200-year computer
simulation model developed by Li and Reynolds
(1998). The rate of change in contagion and
physiognomy happened rapidly and abruptly
relative to low and moderate frequencies of
drought and grazing pressure.
21
1.00
0.90
Mean 1987 - 1997
0.80
0.70
0.60
Grand Mean
0.50
Shrub/Grass Cover Ratio
0.40
Mean 1972 - 1987
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Dry Season Year
22
(No Transcript)
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• Monitoring can suggest, but it can seldom
  demonstrate causality.
• Monitoring can only hope to show correlations.
• ONeill, R.V., C. Hunsaker, and D. Levine. 1994.
  Monitoring challenges and innovative ideas. Proc.
  Int. Sym. Ecological Indicators.

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Garff, Freed, Robinson 1972-1975
J. Hotung 1975 -1983
LDS Farm Management Group 1983 - 1998
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.58
0.58
0.58
Y 0.02x 0.29 r2 0.32 p 0.18 n 7
Y 0.0005x2 - 0.01x 0.41 r2 0.07 p 0.58 n
16
Y 0.0005x2 - 0.01x 0.46 r2 0.40 p 0.003 n
31
0.56
0.56
0.56
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.52
0.52
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.46
0.46
0.46
Mean SAVI
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.42
Mean SAVI
0.42
0.42
Mean SAVI
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.36
0.36
0.36
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.26
0.26
Continuous Grazing
Rotational Grazing
Short Duration Grazing
0.26
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.20
0.20
0.20
1972
1973
1973
1974
1974
1975
1975
1975
1975
1976
1976
1977
1977
1978
1978
1979
1979
1980
1980
1981
1981
1982
1982
1983
1983
1983
1983
1984
1984
1985
1985
1986
1986
1987
1987
1988
1988
1989
1989
1990
1990
1991
1991
1992
1992
1993
1993
1994
1994
1995
1995
1996
1996
1997
1997
1998
Season-Year
Season-Year
Season-Year
1953-1975
1975-1983
1983-1998
Mean SAVI
Mean
Management
Period
Cubic Fit
(cubic fit, r2 0.29, p .003)
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Season-Year
The seasonal wet and dry soil-adjusted vegetation
index (SAVI) time series for the sagebrush steppe
portion of Deseret Land Livestock Company ranch
from 1972 to 1998. The 3 management regimes and
the best fit for each regime and the entire time
series are curvilinear regression line are
delineated. Missing years were replaced by linear
interpolation.
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Mean interannual Palmer Drought Severity Index
(PDSI) from 1895 to 1996 for the Northern
Mountains Climatic Region 5. PDSI values from -4
or less indicate extreme drought and from 4 or
greater extreme wet periods (Alley 1984). These
data were acquired from the Utah Climate Center.
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1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
The apparent spatial distribution of livestock
from 1980 to 1997 at the paddock-level on Deseret
Land Livestock Company Ranch.
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Drought in the last 2000 years
, North Dakota
1200
http//www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/drght_2000y
ears.html Laird, K. R., S. C. Fritz, K. A.
Maasch, and B. F. Cumming. 1996. Greater drought
intensity and frequency before A.D. 1200 in the
Northern Great Plains, U.S.A. Nature 384552-554.
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Hughes, M. K. and L. J. Graumlich. 1996. Climatic
variations and forcing mechanisms of the last
2000 years. Volume 141. Multi-millenial
dendroclimatic studies from the western United
States. NATO ASI Series, pp. 109-124.
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Landscapes are middle-number systems. Farming is
still a high-risk venture.
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1996
1994
1994
1994
1992
Fires (yellow polygons) detected on the Deseret
Land Livestock Company Ranch from 1992 to 1996
using Landsat Multispectral Scanner and Thematic
Mapper (TM) satellite imagery. An 1994 Indian
Resource Satellite (IRS) scene, which has been
merged to a false-color TM scene, and a polygon
coverage of the grazing paddocks serve as the
backdrop.
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Number of Patches
Mean Patch Size
Contagion
r 0.99 p 0.09 n 3
r -0.32 p 0.79 n 3
r -0.99931 p 0.02 n 3
Contagion
Nearest Neighbor SDE
Mean Nearest Neighbor
r -0.96 p 0.17 n 3
r -0.92 p 0.26 n 3
r -0.99 p 0.07 n 3
Retrospective inference of the relationship of
landscape-scale metrics with extent and perimeter
of fire on the eastern portion of Deseret Land
Livestock Co. Ranch from 1972 to 1997 using
linear regression. For the relationship of fire
perimeter with landscape-scale metrics, only the
significant correlation of with contagion ( p
0.10) is shown.
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The time series of seasonal soil-adjusted
vegetation index (SAVI) from 1972 to 1998 (line
plot) in relation to the time series of animal
units (combined sheep and cattle, bar chart) from
1891 to 1998.
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Year
72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
8
6
4
2
PDSI
0
Mean SAVI
-2
-4
-6
-8
wet
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
wet
dry
dry
Season
Mean SAVI
PDSI
5 per. Mov. Avg. (PDSI)
A comparison between the 1972 to 1997 time series
of the seasonal month of image acquisition Palmer
Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the 5-year moving
average of PDSI, and the seasonal soil-adjusted
vegetation index (SAVI) of the Rich
County-sagebrush steppe portion of Deseret Land
Livestock Company ranch.
34
1100
90
1050
80
1000
70
MPS
950
y 64x 48
60
R
2
0.89
p
0.00004
900
n 10
50
Number of Patches
Mean Patch Size (Ha)
850
NP
y -793x 1052
40
R
2
0.81
800
p
0.0004
n 10
30
750
20
700
10
650
600
0
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
Bulk Stocking Density (AU/Ha)
Land NP
MPS
Linear (Land NP)
Linear (MPS)
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Clumped
Deposition
Grassland
E
High Production
A
B
F
Erosion
Fragmented
C
D
El Niño
Low Production
Shrubland
Soil Moisture
La Niña
Grazing Pressure
Modified to 3-D from Holmgren et al. (2001)
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How long do you monitor?
Temp.
Years before present (1000)
Vostok Ice Core The Vostok temperature record
indicates that the earth has been colder than
present for most of the past 250,000 years,
including many ice ages . J. Jouzel, C.
Waelbroeck, B. Malaiz, M. Bender, J. R. Petit, N.
I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, T. King, V. M.
Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, D. Raynaud,
C.Ritz and T. Sowers, Climatic interpretation of
the recently extended Vostok ice records,
Clim.Dyn., In press
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Longer time scales Robert Frost Planning
Horizon Fire and Ice