Elections%20and%20Voting%20Behavior

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Elections and Voting Behavior

• Chapter 10

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How American Elections Work

• Three types of elections
• Select party nominees (primary elections take
  place in spring)
• Select officeholders (general elections takes
  place in Nov.)
• Select options on specific policies (special
  elections)

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Special Elections Ballot Measures

• Referendum
• State voters approve or disapprove proposed
  legislation.
• Often used for constitutional amendments.
• Initiative petition
• Voters in some states propose legislation to be
  voted on.
• Requires a specific number of signatures to be
  valid.
• Can still be voted down by the people.

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The Expansion of Suffrage

• Suffrage or franchise is the right to vote
• It has been expanded throughout US history
• Today nearly all Americans over the age of 18 can
  vote in elections

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The Expansion of Suffrage

• 15th Amendment (1870) granted suffrage to African
  Americans (and other non-whites)
• 19th Amendment (1920) granted suffrage to women
• 26th Amendment (1971) set the minimum voting age
  at 18 (from 21)

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Whether to Vote A Citizens First Choice

• Deciding Whether to Vote
• U.S. typically has low voter turnoutshistorically
  around 50 in most presidential elections.
• Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote.

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Whether to Vote A Citizens First Choice

• The Decline of Turnout 1892-2004 (Figure 10.2)

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Whether to Vote Registration

• 49 states require registrationofficially signing
  up to vote.
• Registration procedures differ from state to
  state.
• Registration requirements reduce turnout
• It requires voters to register well in advance of
  the election day.
• Motor Voter Act Requires states to permit people
  to register to vote when they apply for their
  drivers license.

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Other reasons cited for not voting

• Some believe there is little ideological
  difference between the two parties candidates
• They believe one vote among millions cast doesnt
  matter
• They are unable to leave work on a Tuesday to
  vote

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Some reasons people are more likely to vote

• They perceive an ideological difference between
  candidates
• They have a sense of political efficacythey
  believe their vote makes a difference
• The want to perform their civic duty in a
  democracy

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Predict who is likely to vote

• Gender
• Race (Caucasian, Latino, African American)
• Age
• Education
• Religion (pick three)
• Income
• Urban or rural

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Whether to Vote A Citizens First Choice

• Who Votes?
• Education More education more likely to vote.
  Most important factor.
• Age Older more likely to vote.
• Race Caucasian more likely to vote. BUT, other
  ethnicities are higher with comparable education.
• Gender Female more likely to vote.

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Whether to Vote A Citizens First Choice

• Who Votes? (continued)
• Marital Status Married more likely to vote.
• Union Membership Union member more likely to
  vote.
• Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds
  up.

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Voter Reforms

• Studies show that if turnout increases among
  groups with low rates, Democrats would probably
  receive more votes
• Republicans are unlikely to support reforms that
  would cost them this advantage

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Whether to Vote A Citizens First Choice
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Who Votes How?

• Republicans
• Upper income, evangelical Christians,
  conservative religious, Cuban Americans
• Democrats
• African Americans, Jews, women, Latinos

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How Americans VoteExplaining Citizens Decisions

• Mandate Theory of Elections
• The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate
  from the people to carry out his or her platforms
  and politics.
• Politicians like the theory better than political
  scientists do.

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How Americans Vote Explaining Citizen's Decisions

• 1. Party Identification
• People generally vote for the party they agree
  with.
• They dont have to become informed about every
  issue
• This trend is declining as parties have lost some
  significance in the political process (with rise
  of Independents)

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How Americans Vote Explaining Citizens Decisions
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How Americans Vote Explaining Citizen's Decisions

• 2. Candidates Personalities
• A candidates appearance may play an unconscious
  role in decision-making
• People tend to value integrity, reliability, and
  competence.
• Voters with college education are more likely to
  base their decision on personality

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How Americans Vote Explaining Citizen's Decisions

• 3. Policy Preferences
• People vote for candidates who share their policy
  preferences.
• Must know where they and the candidates stand on
  issues and see differences between candidates.
• Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.
• Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand
  in the party primaries.
• Retrospective Voting choosing a candidate who
  vows to continue policies helpful to him/her

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The Last Battle The Electoral College

• Electoral College actually elects the President -
  founders wanted president chosen by the elite of
  the country
• States choose the electors
• Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to
  more populated states and swing states during
  campaign

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The Last Battle The Electoral College

• How it works today
• Each state has as many votes as it does
  Representatives and Senators.
• Winner of popular vote typically gets ALL the
  Electoral College votes.
• Electors meet in December, votes are reported by
  the vice president in January.
• If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the
  House of Representatives votes for president,
  with each state getting ONE vote.

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Electoral College Winner Take All

• 48 states are winner-take-all
• If Candidate A gets 51 and Candidate B gets 49
  of vote, Candidate A gets all electoral votes
• In Oregon, A7 B0

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Electoral College Maine and Nebraska

• Separate vote by House district
• Popular vote winner in each district gets the
  electoral vote
• Winner of state popular vote gets final 2
  electoral votes
• (show map www.270towin.c0m)

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2000 Election

• Illustrates a key weakness to the Electoral
  Collegewinner of popular vote can lose in the
  E.C.
• Bush won more small states which are
  overrepresented in E.C.
• Gore won more populous statesthey are
  underrepresented in E.C.
• Overall popular vote was close

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The Last Battle The Electoral College
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Should the Electoral College be Reformed?

• Think-Pair-Share Activity
• Make a list of the greatest benefits and greatest
  weaknesses of the Electoral College system (3 of
  eachat least)
• Should the system be reformed? How? Defend your
  answer.

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Evaluating the E.C.

• Weaknesses
• Doesnt always represent the popular vote totals
• Small states overrepresented / large states
  underrepresented
• Faithless electors
• Deflates voter turnout
• Campaigns ignore some states
• Strengths
• Winner-Take-All system provides a clear victor
• Clear, Quick results
• Traditional system / known quantity
• Reduced risk of fraud

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Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior

• Democracy and Elections
• Voters can steer government only when there are
  noticeable policy differences between the
  candidates.
• Candidates who vow to continue popular policies
  are more likely to win elections.
• Policies affect voting behavior through
  retrospective voting.
• Bad economies make politicians nervous.