Pr

1
French labour markets and occupations in 2015
How might the changing labour market transform
higher education ? Expert meeting OCDE/CERI 12-13
feb. 2007
Marc-Antoine ESTRADE Occupations and
Qualifications Foresight Centre dAnalyse
Stratégique
2
The end of the growth of the working population
3
Vacant positions will be important for
professionals

• administrative professionals on functions of
  expertise
• commercial professionals in all the sectors
• computer professionals, even if the rhythm of
  growth will not reach the same level as at the
  end of the 90s
• teachers, mainly through replacements of posts

4
Vacant positions will be also important for jobs
weakly qualified in the personal services

• Nursery assistants and the home helps
• Domestic and offices helpers and cleaners, in
  the public sector as in the private.

5
In the manufacturing sectors, total employment
will decline, but qualified positions will develop

• The manufacturing sector will continue to
  recruit on the qualified posts
• The big manufacturing companies will develop the
  related professions (marketing, RD).

6
Changes in labour markets will also depend on
choices of work organisation and on profiles of
recruitment

• versatile employees to increase the ability to
  react of the company but recruitments will be on
  very restrictive criteria
• tasks rationalized to increase productivity
  gains, but offering little career prospects for
  the less skilled jobs

7
Mobilities in the labour market

• They will differ depending on occupation, level
  of qualification, gender and age
• They will depend on practices of recruitment and
  on management of the human resources by companies
  
• They could remain very unegalitarian, chosen and
  awarding for the most qualified, undergone for
  the others

8
Disparities will raise for youth unemployment
Highest level of diploma (ISCED) Umemployment rate (over the 2 years after leaving studies) Umemployment rate (over the 2 years after leaving studies)
Highest level of diploma (ISCED) 2003-2005 2015
5A/6 16  2 
5B 14  2 
3 19  21 
3c 25  25 
0-2 41  56 
Ensemble 22  18