The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System Recent
Evolution, Current Status and Prediction
Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center /
NCEP August 18, 2014
For more information, visit http//www.cpc.ncep.
noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/A
sian_Monsoons.shtml
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Outline

• Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions
• Monsoon Prediction
• Summary
• Climatology

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Precip Patterns Last 90 Days
For the past 90 days, the rainfall over large
parts of India and eastern China have been below
normal. Only few pockets of above normal rainfall
are noted over Nepal, Burma, southeastern China,
and in the maritime Indonesian islands.
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Precip Patterns Last 30 Days
For the past 30 days rainfall, along the western
Ghats region of India and isolatedly in central
and northern India, was above normal. According
to the India Met. Dept.(IMD), as of 18th of
August, the cumulative monsoon rainfall, for
India as a whole, so far this season, continues
to stay at 17 below long term mean.
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Precip Patterns Last 7 Days
In this past week, rainfall was above normal near
Uttarkhand, eastern India and Nepal. Some
landslides and loss of lives were reported in
these regions. Elsewhere rainfall was
considerably below normal.
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Atmospheric Circulation
Due to technical issues, this map is one day
behind than normal. The anomalous ridge over
north central India and the trough along eastern
India is consistent with this past weeks
rainfall in these regions.
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Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes
The time series of precipitation over the
various regions is pretty much consistent with
the spatial maps shown earlier.
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NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip.
Anom. for Week 1 Week 2
Week-1
Week-2
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Summary

• For the past 90 days, the rainfall over large
  parts of India and eastern China have been below
  normal. Only few pockets of above normal rainfall
  are noted over Nepal, Burma, southeastern China,
  and in the maritime Indonesian islands. For the
  past 30 days rainfall, along the western Ghats
  region of India and isolatedly in central and
  northern India, was above normal. According to
  the India Met. Dept.(IMD), as of 18th of August,
  the cumulative monsoon rainfall, for India as a
  whole, so far this season, continues to stay at
  17 below long term mean.
• In this past week, rainfall was above normal near
  Uttarkhand, eastern India and Nepal. Some
  landslides and loss of lives were reported in
  these regions. Elsewhere rainfall was
  considerably below normal. For the next couple of
  weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above
  normal rainfall over south central, southern
  India, parts of eastern China and across
  Indonesia. Northern India is forecast to receive
  below normal rainfall during the next couple of
  weeks.

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Demise of the Asian Monsoon
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Onset of the Australian Monsoon
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Climatology