Title: Predictors: R
1Predictors Résumés are among the most popular
screening methods
- This makes sense
- Applicants perceive them as fair (Steiner
Gilliland 1996) - Detailed background on what a person has done
- Can be linked to job analysis information
- No cost to collect them
- This also seems strange
- Easy to fake
- Biased information (only good things are
mentioned) - Hard to compare
- Expensive in terms of employee time
2Predictors Seniority and Experience
- Definitions
- Seniority
- Length of service with organization, department,
or job - Experience
- Not only length of service but also kinds of
activities an employee has undertaken - Why so widely used?
- Direct experience in a job content area reflects
an accumulated stock of KSAOs necessary to
perform job - Information is easily and cheaply obtained
- Protects employee from capricious treatment and
favoritism - Promoting senior or experienced employees is
socially acceptable -- viewed as rewarding loyalty
3Predictors Seniority and Experience
- Employees typically expect promotions will go to
most senior or experienced employee - Relationship to job performance
- Seniority is unrelated to job performance
- Experience is moderately related to job
performance, especially in the short run - Experience is superior because it is
- a more valid method than seniority
- more likely to be content valid when past or
present jobs are similar to the future job - Experience is unlikely to remedy initial
performance difficulties of low-ability employees - is better suited to predict short-term rather
than long-term potential
4Predictors Seniority and Experience
- Experience is nearly universally used to select
individuals - There are many different ways to conceptualize
experience however - Levels of specificity do you measure just the
specific tasks (from job analysis) the person is
doing, or do you measure the entire scope of the
job? - Measurement mode do you measure quantity,
quality, or type of experience?
5Predictors Seniority and Experience
Quinones, Ford, Teachout (1995) showed that
work experience is not a unitary concept by
demonstrating by meta-analysis that the overall
correlation of experience and job performance is
.27 (Time number of years, months practiced,
times performed. Type experience similar in
type and size to target job. Athe the unit of
analys of task, job, organization
6Predictors Seniority and Experience
- (McDaniel, Schmidt, Hunter, 1988) N 16,058
- The correlation between job experience and job
performance moderated by two variables - length of experience
- job complexity
- The highest correlations were found for those
with - low mean levels of job experience
- for jobs that place low levels of cognitive
demands on employees
7Predictors Education and Job Performance
- Arguments for using education (Roth Bobko,
2000) - Indicator for job skills
- Measures how smart people are (r.50)
- Measures conscientiousness (r.35)
- Cheap and objective
- Arguments against using education
- Why not measure intelligence and skills directly?
- Years of education is vague
- Potential for adverse impact against minorities
8Correlations between Education and Performance
Predictors Education and Job Performance
(Roth, BeVier, Switzer, Schippmann, 1996)
9 Predictor Job Specific Knowledge and Aptitude
Tests
- Work samples
- Actual physical mock up of job tasks
- In-basket exercises for managerial tasks
- Relationship with job performance r0.54
- Job knowledge
- Questions regarding factual and procedural
elements of the job - Relationship with job performance r0.48
- Advantages and disadvantages of testing directly?
10Predictor Situational Judgment Tests
- Present job applicants with realistic, job
related scenarios and evaluate their responses
based on a careful analysis of the tasks
performed on the job - Scores are relative to those provided by experts
in the content area - Results from studies of organizations show that
SJTs - are predictive of job performance
- are related to traits like general mental ability
and personality
11Predictor Situational Judgment Tests
- Sales Scenario
- You are a Business Representative in the MSD
Group. You have been in contact with an import
company, CREO Imports, that is developing its
electronic equipment import business. This
company has never had any personal contact with
XYZ and has never shipped with XYZ. Most of its
shipments have been truck to local markets, but
the company is very interested in extending its
reach. Its orders in these new markets correspond
to 45 loads worth 110,000 in the first month,
which represents a significant opportunity for
XYZ.The only relationship between CREO Imports
and XYZ is your series of phone calls. You feel
that a face-to-face meeting with them will be the
most effective way to further the relationship
and help them feel comfortable with using your
services.For each of the following questions,
choose the best possible response.1. What
information would MOST help you to convince your
management of the potentialopportunity at
CREO?A. Comparison numbers for electronic
equipment traffic vs. other traffic.B. A review
of XYZs service capabilities from the ports.C.
The customers projected shipping volume and the
revenue generted.D. Revenue and volume
information on all electronic equipment import
customers.2. What would be the MOST important
thing to ask the customer to help you plan
themost productive first meeting?A. What the
customer hopes to accomplish at the meeting.B.
What the customers strategic market goals
are.C. What the customer takes into
consideration when choosing a transportation
provider.D. How the company is currently
shipping.3. What should be the primary focus of
your initial meeting with the customer?A. The
benefits XYZ can offer the company as it moves
into new markets.B. Basic shipping information
for inexperienced shippers.C. Potential problems
that may occur.D. Other electronic equipment
traffic that XYZ ships from ports.
12Predictor General mental ability for selection
- Critical area for measurement
- Everyone agrees that they want smarter employees
- Intelligence would seem to matter for every
single aspect of job performance - There is evidence that this is something that is
fairly stable within a person - Why are intelligent individuals better at their
jobs?
13Predictor General mental ability for selection
- What is it?
- It goes by many names g, general mental ability,
IQ, intelligence - A general measure of cognitive functioning that
should work across several different domains - First proposed by Francis Galton, an English
geneticist and relative of Darwin - It remains one of the most studied of all human
characteristics - Is it really a trait? Is it stable?
- Test re-test (age 6 to 180.77 age 12 to age
180.89) - Estimates of heritability range as high as
h20.75 - So whats the alternative?
- The SAT/GRE dimensions
- Howard Gardners theory of multiple intelligences
14Predictor General mental ability for selection
- After taking into account gender and physical
stature, brain size is correlated about .40 with
IQ - The speed of nerve conduction is also correlated
with IQ - Energy expended during problem solving is
inversely related to IQ levels - The brain waves of individuals with higher IQs
respond more quickly to simple sensory stimuli
(clicks, lights)
15Predictor General mental ability for selection
- Data clearly show that general mental ability as
measured by the ASVAB is correlated with
education levels, income, self-esteem, and weeks
of unemployment even with a 10-year gap between
measures
16Predictor General mental ability for selection
(Hunter and Hunter, 1984 Ree and Earles, 1990)
17Predictor General mental ability for selection
18Predictor Personality
- We can train people to do things where skills are
concerned. But there is one capability we do not
have and that is to change a persons attitude.
So we prefer an unskilled person with a good
attitudeto a highly skilled person with a bad
attitude - Herb Kelleher, CEO, Southwest Airlines
- Most organizations want to hire people based on
their personalities, but personality is
notoriously difficult to measure
19Dimensions of personality Meta-analytic results
Predictor Personality
20Conscientiousness
Predictor Personality
- Tendency towards orderliness, dutifulness,
achievement striving, self-discipline, and
caution - Are there positive features of this trait?
- Are there drawbacks?
- When do you think this would be most important?
21Conscientiousness
Predictor Personality
- Summary of processes
- Increases goal setting behaviors
- Increases self-efficacy
- Increases value placed on social order and
conformity - Summary of situational effects
- Stronger effects when situations are weak or when
supervision is non-existent - Average conscientiousness of a group is related
to group performance - Can actually decrease performance for novel tasks
- More likely to be entrepreneurs
22Extroversion
Predictor Personality
- A tendency towards friendliness, gregariousness,
assertiveness, activity, and excitement seeking - Are there positive features of this trait?
- Are there drawbacks?
- When do you think this would be most important?
23Extroversion
Predictor Personality
- Summary of processes
- Decreases blood flow to frontal lobes
- Both introverts and extraverts are trying to
regulate their level of psychological arousal - Associated with increased self-efficacy
- Linked to achievement motivation
- Summary of situational effects
- More important in social situations like
leadership - Can increase citizenship behavior (helping) in
some social situations - Extraversion is a hindrance in distributive
bargaining - Higher variability in extroversion linked to
superior group performance
24Agreeableness
Predictor Personality
- A tendency towards trust, morality, altruism,
cooperation, modesty, and sympathy - Are there positive features of this trait?
- Are there drawbacks?
- When do you think this would be most important?
25Agreeableness
Predictor Personality
- Summary of processes
- Associated with values of benevolence and
traditionalism - Has a relatively large negative relationship with
goal-setting - Breaks into two dimensionsmorality and conflict
avoidance - Summary of situational effects
- Agreeable individuals are more helpful in
minimally constrainted situations - Agreeable individuals prefer tasks calling for
helping, but dislike tasks calling for conflict - Agreeableness does not moderate helping friends
or familybut agreeableness does moderate helping
strangers - Agreeableness is related to citizenship and
helping performance in groups (not surprisingly) - Agreeableness is a hindrance in distributive
bargaining
26Openness to experience
Predictor Personality
- A tendency towards imagination, artistic
interests, emotionality, adventurousness,
intellect, and liberalism - Are there positive features of this trait?
- Are there drawbacks?
- When do you think this would be most important?
27Openness to experience
Predictor Personality
- Summary of processes
- Increased activity in the dopamine systems
- More flexible organization of ideas
- Mildly linked to goal setting motivation
- Place more value on universalism and
self-direction tend to distain conformity and
tradition - Summary of situational effects
- Open individuals learn faster in situations
calling for change - Openness is very strongly linked to creativity
- More likely to be entrepreneurs
28Neuroticism
Predictor Personality
- Summary of processes
- Increased sensitivity to environmental stimuli
due to activation of the sympathetic nervous
system - Linked to worry, negative emotional states, and
increased use of avoidance coping strategies - Negatively linked to all aspects of motivation
- Summary of situational effects
- Less likely to do well as entrepreneurs
- Higher variability in neuroticism negatively
linked to team performance - Interestingnot more likely to turnover from jobs
and relationships with performance as a whole are
weak
29Core Self-Evaluations
Predictor Personality
- Scale items
- I am confident I get the success I deserve in
life. - I am capable of coping with most of my problems.
- There are times when things look pretty bleak and
hopeless to me (R). - When I try, I generally succeed.
- I determine what will happen in my life.
- I am filled with doubts about my competence (R)
30Predictor Personality Core Self Evaluations
Normal Personality
- These are measures of core self-evaluations
- Typical features
- Positive self image (self-esteem and
self-efficacy) - Internal locus of control
- Low neuroticism
- Stability can be inferred from self-esteem
measures - Test-retest correlations among adults over
periods around two years typically average around
0.60 - Lower stability in very young and very old
individuals
31Predictor Personality Core Self Evaluations
Performance
- People with positive self-evaluations set higher
goals for themselves, which is a major reason for
their higher levels of performance (Erez Judge,
2001)
32Predictor PersonalityBig Five Personality
Traits at Work
33Predictor Interviews
Questions
- Would you ever work at a company that didnt
interview you first? - Why or why not?
- What do you try to learn in an interview?
- Would you ever hire an applicant that hadnt been
interviewed first? - Why or why not?
- What do managers try to learn in an interview?
- As an applicant, what are the best and worst
interview experiences youve had
34Interviews are very familiar and very important
Predictor Interviews
- Applicants typically like them
- Asked applicants to rate lots of methods of
selection - They liked interviews, simulations, and job
knowledge tests the best - They liked personality and life history items the
least
- Organizations typically like them too
- Interviews are the most common selection method
in real organizations - Managers may prefer candidates they have met
prior to hiring
35What do interviewees say that theyre looking for?
Predictor Interviews
- In general, research suggests that applicants
prefer - Non-invasive questions
- Interviewers who know something about the job
(preferably not someone from HR) - Interviewers general interpersonal skills
- Warmth
- Sincerity
- Listening skills
- However, job characteristics are much more
predictive of applicant intentions to take a job
than are their perceptions of interviewers - Interviewers are seen as signals of the companys
culture
36Huffcutt, Conway, Roth, StoneConstructs
Measured in Interviews
Predictor Interviews
- Tried to build up a taxonomy of constructs that
might be relevant for job performance - Mental capability, since most jobs obviously
involve some mental operations - The actual declarative information a person has
stored regarding the job (knowledge and skills) - Personality traits as represented by the FFM
- Applied social skills, which are apropos because
interviews might be especially good for measuring
these - Fit with the values of the organization, that
again might be difficult to assess outside of a
conversation
37Research Had Demonstrated GMA Loadings for
Interviews
Predictor Interviews
Interview characteristics Interview characteristics rc
Overall relationship Overall relationship 0.40
Structure Low 0.52
Medium 0.40
High 0.35
Content Situational 0.32
Behavioral 0.18
Ability scores available? Yes 0.59
No 0.38
- Interviews are correlated with GMA
- More structured interviews are less correlated
with ability - Situational interviews are more correlated with
ability - When scores are available, interviewers engage in
confirmatory biases - It may be that structured interviews are
sometimes designed to avoid ability. - Huffcutt Roth, 1996
38Huffcutt, Conway, Roth, Stone Constructs
Measured in Interviews
Predictor Interviews
Structure Structure Structure
Overall Low High
General intelligence .24 .26 .11
Job knowledge .42 .49 .33
Extroversion .33 .22 .40
Conscientiousness .33 .24 .37
Agreeableness .51 .25 .53
Emotional stability .47 .18 .56
Interpersonal skills .39 .31 .40
Communication skills .26 .05 .31
Leadership .47 .40 .40
Org. fit .49 .07 .58
- Interviewers are basically looking for the same
things that most tests are - Results suggest that structured interviews may do
a slightly better job at getting personality
39Huffcutt, Conway, Roth, StoneConstructs
Measured in Interviews
Predictor Interviews
- Structured interviews appear to be better at
measuring several constructs that are important
for job performance - Unstructured interviews appeared to show larger
race and sex differences - Interviews are not really completely different
from tests, they measure many of the constructs
we try to assess with tests
40Are there trade offs in which interview methods
are best?
Predictor Interviews
- Legal defensibility?
- Face validity?
- Content validity?
- Criterion-related validity?
41Methods for structured interviews
Predictor Interviews
- Situational interviews
- Calculate a product demand forecast given this
raw data - Premise performance best demonstrated by real
life situation - Development
- Get lists of typical tasks through interviewing
incumbents and SMEs - Develop scoring systems based on points for each
response
- Behavioral interviews
- Tell me about a time that you showed leadership
skills - Premise past behavior predicts future behavior
- Development
- Get lists of critical behaviors through
interviewing incumbents and SMEs - Develop scoring systems based on points for
quality of each response
42Very common, but hopelessly vague questions
Predictor Interviews
- Tell me about yourself
- Problem Totally unstandardized
- What would you say is your greatest strength?
- Problem Again, unstandardized difficult to
define what a good answer is - Describe a challenge you faced at your last job
how did you overcome it? - No assurance this challenge is similar to the
current job
43Common behavioral interview questions
Predictor Interviews
- Describe a time when you independently decided
that something needed to be done, and you
independently took responsibility for making
certain it was done. - Tell me about a problem that you tried to solve
(at work) related to task xxx on the job
description. How did you identify and solve the
problem? - Describe a time when you tried to persuade
someone to do something that he/she was unwilling
to do. - Describe a time when you had to do task xxx on
the job description.
44Example Developing a behavioral interview
Predictor Interviews
- Tell me about a time when you have worked with
customers who were angry. If you havent worked
with customers, tell me about another time you
dealt with an angry person. - Examples of behaviors
- 0 points complained about customers and
explained how they refused to back down - 1 point gave a full refund or caved in
completely without any supporting information
described feeling stressed out - 2 points politely told the person that policy
says no refunds are given note customer seemed
to be happy in the end - 3 points apologize and explain that while store
policy requires a receipt, the person is welcome
to contact the manager with further questions
note a positive feeling from the customer at the
end