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h.Jamali at gmail dot com

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Why most published research findings are false?John. P. K. IoannidisPLoSMedicine, 2005. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: h.Jamali at gmail dot com


1
??????? ? ?????? ????? ????????????? ? ?????????
  • ???? ??? ????? ??????
  • ??????? ???????
  • h.Jamali at gmail dot com
  • ?? ?? ????

2
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3
Why most published research findings are
false?John. P. K. IoannidisPLoS Medicine,
2005
4
How to make more published research true.John.
P. K. IoannidisPLoS Medicine, 2014
5
?????
  • ????????? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???? ????
    ??? ?? ???? ??? ??????? ???? (?? ????????? ????
    ?? ??????? ?????) ???? ???????? ?? ??? ????? ????
    ???? ????? ?? ?????? ? ???????? ???? ?? ????
    ????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?? ????? ??????? ???
    ???? ???.
  • (the Economist, 15 Mar 2014) (Ioannidis, 2014)
  • ??????? ? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ????
    ??????? ????? ????? ???? ???. ??????? ?????? ?
    ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??????????? ? ESI ???? ????
    ???
  • ?????? ?????? ??.??.?? ????? ?? ???? ???? ??????
    ???? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????? (???
    ????????? ?? ?? ??? ?????)
  • ???????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????????! ???
    ?????

6
?????? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ???? 22860
  • ?? ?? ??????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ?? ?????
    ??? ? ??? ??? ??? ???????? ???!

7
????? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ??
???
J Bohannon, Science Mag., 2014
8
?? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?? ???
????? ???? ????? ????? ?? ?? ????????
J Bohannon Science Mag., 201334260-65
9
????????? ????? ?? ?????
  • ????? ????? ?? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ? ????? ?? ??
    ?????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ??????????
    ???? ??? ????????? ? ???? ????????.
  • (Lohr Carey, 1999)
  • the extent to which all aspects of a studys
    design and conduct can be shown to protect
    against systematic bias, nonsystematic bias, and
    inferential error.
  • Considered to be synonymous with internal
    validity
  • Systematic Errors
  • Include selection bias and confounding, in which
    values tend to be inaccurate in a particular
    direction
  • Nonsystematic Errors
  • Are attributable to chance
  • Inferential Errors
  • Result from problems in data analysis and
    interpretation, such as choice of the wrong
    statistical measure or wrongly rejecting the null
    hypothesis

10
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20
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21
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    ?????????? (?? ???? ????? ?? ?????)

22
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23
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26
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28
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29
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30
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31
????? ?????? ? ?????????? ???? ??? ?????
  • Becker Medical Library Model for Assessment of
    Research Impact
  • Canadian Institutes of Health Research Framework
  • Excellence in Research for Australia
  • Logic Model for Medical Research
  • Leiden University Medical Center
  • Integrative mixed-methods approach
  • National Health and Medical Research Council of
    Australia Measure of Research Impact and
    Achievement
  • Medical Research Council UK,
  • Economic Impact Reporting Framework
  • Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research,
    Performance Measurement Evaluation Framework
  • Payback model
  • Research Excellence Framework
  • Research Impact Framework
  • Assessment tool

32
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33
?????? ????? ????? payback
34
???? ???? ????? ? ????? ????? ????? payback
???? ?????
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????????? ??????? ? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ????? ?? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ? ?????? ????? ???? ????????? ?????? ? ????????? ????????? ?????? ? ???????? ?? ???????? ??????? ? ???????? ???? ?? ???? ????????? ????? ????? ???????.
????? ????? ? ??? ????? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??????? (???? ?????? ?????)? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ???? ????? ?????????? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ???? ? ????? ????? ????? ???????? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ????.
????? ??????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ??? ????.
35
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???? ?? ????? ????????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ????? / ???? ?? ????? ???? ???????? ????? ???? ?? ??????
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36
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44
Producer-push
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User- pull
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exchange
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51
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    ???????
  • ????? ????????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ?
    ??????
  • ?????? ????? ?????
  • ??? (???????? ?????????? ????? ??????? ??????
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  • ????? ??????????
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Ioannidis, 2014
52
??????? ?????? ????? ?????
  • ????? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ?? ?????? ???????
    ????? ????? ???
  • ???? ???? ?????? ?????? (?????? ?????)
  • ?????? ??? ?????? (effect size) ???
  • ?????? ?????? ?? ??? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?
    ???????? ????? ???? ????
  • ????? ???? ? ????????? ?????? ???? ????
  • ? ....

53
??????? ?????? ???
  • ??? ??????? ?? ?? ??? ??????
  • ?? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ?????
  • ?? ?? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ?????
  • ????? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??? ??? ????? ?????
  • ????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ?????

54
????????????? ??? ??? ?? ?????
  • ????? ????? ?? ????? ?????? ????
  • ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ? ????? ????
  • ????? ?? ????? ??????
  • ????? ????? ? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ????

55
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  • ????? ????? ?? ?? ????? ????? ????

56
????????????? ??? ?????? ????????
  • ?? ????? ??????? ???? ?????

57
????? ??????
  • ?? ???? ???????? ??????? ?? ???? ?????? ????????
    ?? ?? ???? ?? ????? ? ???????? ???? ?? ??? ?????
    ?? ??? ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ????? (???? ?????)
    ?? ??????? ?? ???
  • Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Science
  • ????? ??? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?? ???? ???? ??? ???
    ???? ????????? ?????????? ?? ???. ?? ????? ????
    ??? ???? ?? ???? ????? ??? ?????????? ???? ?? ???
    ?? ???????? ?? ???? ??????? ?? ???? ???? ?? ??
    ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ? ?? ??? ???? ????? ?????.
    ?? ??? ?? ??? ???????? ???? 296640 ???? ????
    ?????? ???????????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ???????.

58
???? ?????? ???? ???????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???
59
http//scholarlyoa.com/publishers/
60
http//scholarlyoa.com/individual-journals/
61
????????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ???? (251 ????? 2013)
  • ????? ??? ????????? ???? ?? ??? ???? ? ???? ??
    ????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ???
    ???. ???? ???? ?????? ????????? ?? ????? ?????
    ???? ???? ????? ??? ?? ?????????? ????? ???? ???
    ? ???? ???? ?????? ????????? ?? ??? ????? ?????
    ????? ? ?? ????? ???? ???.
  • (????? ???? ???? ???? ??? ??????? ???????)

62
Who publishes in predatory journals?
  • Statistical analyses verify that each group of
    journals has a distinct author population. Those
    who publish in predatory journals are, for the
    most part, young and inexperienced researchers
    from developing countries. We believe that
    economic and sociocultural conditions in these
    developing countries have contributed to the
    differences found in authorship between
    predatory and nonpredatory journals
  • http//dx.doi.org/10.1002/asi.23265

63
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  • ???? ??? ?? ?? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?? ?? ????
    ????? ???
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    ?????? ???? ????
  • ?? ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????
    ??????? ????
  • ?? ???????? ??? ????? ???? ???? ?? ?? ????? ?????
    ?? ??????? ???
  • ??? ????? ?? ??? ? ???? ???? ??? ??????? ????
  • ?????? ?? ?? ???????? ????? ????? ????
  • ???? ??? ?? ?? ????????? ????? ? ???????? ?????
    ????? ?????

64
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65
????????????? ??? ??? ??? ?????
  • ReaderMeter
  • Google Scholar Profile
  • ResearcherID
  • Microsoft Academic Search
  • Scopus Author Identification
  • ORCID
  • GrowKudos
  • Biomedexperts
  • Mendeley
  • PMC, European pubmed
  • Open access

66
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69
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    ?????? ??????
  • ?????? ?? ????? ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ? ....
  • Dryad
  • Databib
  • GenBank
  • Journal articles supplements
  • NIH Data Sharing Repositories (USA)
  • Digital Curation Centre (UK)

70
???????? ?? ??? ?????
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71
???????????? ?????
  • ???? ????
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    ??????? ? ??????
  • ????? ??????? ??? (???????? ?????????? ?????
    ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ???? ? ?????)
  • ????? ????????? ? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????
  • ????? ???????????? ??? ?????
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    ????? ??????..)
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    ????????? ? ???? ?????

72
????? ?????? ????????
  • ???? ???? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ?????? ????
  • ??? ????? ????? ???????
  • ?????? ? ????? ?? ????????? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?????
    ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ? ...
  • ?????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ? ?????? ???? ?????
  • ??? ????? ? ?????? ?? ????? ????????
  • ???? ?????? ???? (?????? ???? KTCN)
  • ????? ??? ??? ????? Meta-Research Innovation
    Center at Stanford U.

73
https//becker.wustl.edu/impact-assessment/
74
????? ?????? ????????
  • ??????? ?? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ?
    ?????????
  • ??????? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ? ????? ?? ????
    ????? ?? ???? ???? ????? ???
  • ?? ???????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??
    ???????? ???? ?? ?? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????
    ???? ?? ???????? ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ? ?????
    ?? ?? ?????? ?????
  • ???? ?? ????? ?? ????? ???????? ??????

75
?????
  • ???? ????? ???????? ?? ???? ?????? ???? ?????
    ????? ? ???? ?? ???? ??? ?? ???? ????? ???? ????
  • ??????? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ????.
    ???1. ???? ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?
    ??????? ????? ????????? ???? ?????
  • Ioannidis JPA (2014) How to Make More Published
    Research True. PLoS Med 11(10) e1001747. doi
    10.1371/journal.pmed.1001747
  • Ioannidis JPA (2005) Why Most Published Research
    Findings Are False. PLoS Med 2(8) e124. doi
    10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
  • Lohr KN, Carey TS. Assessing best evidence
    issues in grading the quality of studies for
    systematic reviews. Jt Comm J Qual Improv
    199925470-9.

76
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