SACN PT Sustainability

1
SACN Seminar on sustainable PT

• SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT
• PROJECTS
• Rapid rail project
• in Gauteng
• Romano Del Mistro

2
Background

• Downside
• The Apartheid train?
• Versus Soweto line?
• Passengers and mode
• Long distance travel

• Upside
• Civil engineering
• Communication
• Political will
• The improved image of PT
• The capacity
• The project

• In a 100 years time?
• What would we have done without the Gautrain?
• What will the Gautrain be doing without
  energy?

3
Background Presentation

• The Gautrain project
• Sustainability
• Comparison of alternatives
• Improving sustainability
• The real issue

4
The Gautrain project Route

• Pretoria Johannesburg
• 62 km
• 7 stations
• 45 000 one way daily passengers (??) (120 000
  passengers per day by 2010 )
• 11 km of tunnel
• 7,5 km of bridges
• R7 billion at 2001 values.
• 160 km/hr (40min Pta- Jhb)
• Marlboro Oliver Tambo International
  Airport
• 13 km
• 3 stations

5
The Gautrain project Socio economics GGP and
Jobs

• Jobs
• 43 000 jobs being created during the construction
  phase
• To date more than 6 700 local direct jobs and
  an estimated total of more than 36 200 direct,
  indirect and induced jobs.
• 40 000 jobs could be created as a result of the
  economic activity related to the Gautrain

• GGP
• An increase of between 0,4 and 0,5 in the GGP.
• Operation and maintenance expenditure of R325
  million per year
• R4 billion (60 of budget) to be spent on
  infrastructure (2002)

6
The Gautrain project Socio economics Jobs and
training

• Ekurhuleni plant to build Gautrain carriages
• 29 July 2008
• Gautrain's 81 carriages will be assembled UCW
  plant in Nigel
• Investing about R15 million in their Nigel
  assembly plant
• More than R5 million of that in training,"
• Plant would employ 85 people, 17 of whom are
  currently in Derby

• Gpg.gov.za

7
The Gautrain project Feeder services
8
The Gautrain project The project
9
The Gautrain project The project
10
The Gautrain project The project
11
The Gautrain project The project
12
Sustainability

• Improving sustainability
• Passenger volume
• Creating more jobs
• Energy

• Comparison
• Generic and Gautrain
• Total cost
• Capital cost
• Ongoing costs
• Job creation
• Energy

13
SustainabilityGautrain specific

• Direct
• Direct 40 2km

• Gautrain
• Feeder 10km
• Distributor 5km

14
Sustainability Gautrain specificPeak hour
boardings and alightings

• For feeders and distributors to Gautrain

15
Sustainability Gautrain specificPeak OD matrix

• For direct services of alternatives

16
Sustainability Gautrain specificCapital cost

• Ever increasing costs of mega projects

• Capital cost / trip
• R30 000 000 000
• _at_ 12 for 20 years
• R4 billion/yr
• For 100 000 pax/day
• over 300 days/yr
• R133,88/trip
• 44 trips R5891/month
• _at_ 8 for 200 000/day
• R51.93/trip (R2240/month)

actual
cpi
17
Sustainability Gautrain specificCapital cost

• Gautrain much more costly

18
Sustainability Generic line haulTotal cost /
passenger
19
Sustainability Generic line haulTotal cost /
passenger excluding way capital
20
Sustainability Gautrain specificTotal annual
cost

• Gautrain system is 3 times more costly

21
Sustainability Generic line haulOperating
cost / passenger
22
Sustainability Gautrain specificOperating
cost

• Gautrain system 13 less costly

23
Sustainability Generic line haulEnergy
consumption / passenger
24
Sustainability Gautrain specificEnergy
consumption

• Gautrain system uses 5 less energy

25
Improving SustainabilityPassenger volumes

• Increase passengers

• Gauteng road network
• R55 billion?

• More congestion
• Petrol price
• Land use policy
• Shorten trips
• More passengers
• less vehicles

26
Improving SustainabilityCreating more jobs-
Feeder services

• Proposed fleet
• 210 minibuses
• 672 jobs _at_3.2/veh)

• Proposed fleet
• 97 35-seater buses
• 21 55-seater buses
• 7 articulated buses.
• 125 buses in total
• 400 jobs _at_ 3.2/veh)

27
Improving SustainabilityEnergy Future

• Affordable energy?
• ½ of peak supply?
• Oil future 2025

28
Improving SustainabilityReducing travel

• What is the saving in cost from reducing travel?

• What is the benefit that is lost
• To the individual?
• To the employer?
• To the country?
• Restructuring land use
• Inducing the private sector

Preparing to be competitive when energy costs are
very high ?
29
Conclusions The Gautrain project

• Fait accompli
• A civil engineering feat
• Public transport image
• Political will
• Environmental benefits
• Competitive after sunk costs
• Best use of R30 billion?
• Opportunity costs

• Improve sustainability
• Increase passengers
• Reduce cost
• Reduce trip length??
• Effect of fuel price
• More freeways?
• Create more jobs
• Recap minibuses as feeders
• Restructure land use
• Induce private sector

But we must also prepare for very high energy
costs!