Crime Prevention in the Southern Rail Corridor

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Crime Prevention in the Southern Rail Corridor

• Associate Professor Trudi Cooper, Dr Paul Cozens
  and Dr Terry Love, Dr Frank Morgan and Dr Joe
  Clare

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Purpose of the project

• Project sponsored by the OCP
• Purpose to provide comprehensive, accurate,
  timely, and useful information to support policy
  makers
• To inform evidence-based decisions about
  strategy, service deployment and resource
  allocation for crime prevention along the
  Southern Rail Corridor.

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Futures methodology

• Futures approaches uses different data
  gathering methods to anticipate emerging issues
  that will influence crime
• Assumes successful crime prevention uses multiple
  strategies
• Methods include environmental scanning expert
  knowledge situational crime prevention and
  scenario planning
• Enables preventative strategies to be put in
  place before problems becomes widespread

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Previous WA research

• Builds on previous research by
• Crime Research Centre Household Survey
• Youth Rail Interagency Research project

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CRC survey findings

• Modest but significantly lower rates of burglary
  along Southern Rail suburbs compared with other
  metropolitan suburbs.
• Southern Rail suburbs reported higher levels of
  informal social control, fewer perceived social
  problems and greater eagerness to remain living
  in the local area.

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Interagency Youth Rail Findings

• Rail ticketing issues trigger incidents that
  escalate
• Interagency cooperation creates opportunities for
  constructive intervention for intractable
  problems
• Some young people use rail services to escape
  from difficult home circumstances.
• Anticipated changes to young peoples venues due
  to accessibility of attractive locations (how
  soon?)

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Think Tanks

• Two expert think tanks
• Think tank 1 Share local knowledge and
  perceptions of issues
• Think tank 2 Scenario planning to anticipate
  discontinuous situations with serious
  consequences and proactively mitigate worst
  potential consequence.

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Complementary Approaches

• Think Tank 1 identifies near future issues
  predictable from existing expert knowledge.
• Assumes the immediate future will be similar to
  the present
• Provided a basis for think tank 2
• Think Tank 2 identifies unpredictable (and
  potentially serious) events with implications for
  crime prevention
• Assumes that sometimes events occur which create
  sudden unpredictable social and community change

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Think Tank 1

• Used environmental scanning
• Expert knowledge
• (List)

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Think Tank 1 Some single issues identified

• Night transport from rail nodes (bus or taxi
  connections)
• Increased access to beaches / cafes/ nightspots
  particularly Mandurah, Rockingham and Perth.
• Toilet issues
• Leavers events Will Mandurah attract schoolies?
• Party accessibility (flash mobs, swarming, etc)
  
• Seasonal problems? Summer, hot weather

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Some single issues identified

• Lack of finances/ transport home after clubs
  close
• Lock-ins create safety problems if people miss
  trains
• Homelessness issues - no youth shelters. (Experts
  mentioned not clear about connection with rail
  line)
• Car parking issues, insufficient parking, feeder
  networks not good enough
• Seniors use of gophers insufficient parking and
  gophers are not permitted on trains.

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Some single issues identified

• Developments around stations to create passive
  surveillance opportunities and new social hubs
  but not yet developed in some key locations, for
  example Kwinana
• Existing relationships between agencies patchy
  (e.g. police, local government and rail
  security).
• Prejudiced perceptions? Community expectation of
  increased crime?
• Imported crime from other metropolitan corridors
  because of ease of travel
• Facilitates mobility between low socio-economic
  areas and affluent areas

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Compound Issue 1 Visiting Perth for its night
life

• Travelling home after drinking, on a rail system
  with which provides no on-train toilet facilities
  and few on-station facilities after dark.
• Being locked out on the streets in Perth between
  the last train at night and the first train in
  the morning.
• Being unable to get home after using the train.

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Predicted consequences Visiting Perth for night
life

• Together, these imply a number of crime concerns
  including car theft, assaults, increased risk of
  victimisation and anti-social behaviour around
  station nodes and walking routes with no onward
  transport.

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Compound issue 2 No Transport from train

• Transport to and from the rail line poor, poor
  integration between trains and buses/ taxis
• Likely to increase incidence of crime and
  anti-social behaviour especially intoxicated
  individuals and groups at night.
• For Mandurah and Rockingham, typical end-stage
  travel involves intoxicated visitors walking 1-3
  km through residential suburbs

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Predicted consequences No Transport from train

• Associated with criminal and anti-social
  behaviour (noise, vandalism, litter, urination,
  graffiti, theft) as groups make their way home
  from the stations
• Likelihood of crimes and antisocial behaviour
  associated with route from station to final
  destination

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Predicted consequences Increased crime
distribution

• Along station feeder routes
• Potentially provides easier access to crime
  targets in the southern suburbs for criminals in
  the north and vice versa.
• Ease of access is likely to redistribute crime
• Initially, constrained in southern suburbs by
  lower population levels
• Development will change crime patterns

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Predicted consequences Crime directly associated
with rail line

• Vehicle break in and entry to parked cars at
  stations
• Assaults, thefts, bullying around transport nodes
  when safe onward transport unavailable
• Ticketing issues as triggers for other offences

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Situational Crime Prevention Techniques

• Adapted from Cornish and Clarke (2003)

Increase effort Increase risk Reduce rewards Reduce provocations Remove excuses
Target Harden Extend guardianship Conceal target Reduce frustration and stress Set rules
Control access to facilities Assist natural surveillance Remove targets Avoid disputes Post instructions
Screen exits Reduce anonymity Identify property Reduce emotional arousal Alert conscience
Deflect offenders Utilise place managers Disrupt markets Neutralise peer pressure Assist compliance
Control tools / weapons Strengthen formal surveillance Deny benefits Discourage imitation Control drugs and alcohol
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Successful Situational Crime Prevention

• The findings from Think Tank 1 suggest that
  several steps have already been taken in the
  planning stage for the Mandurah Perth Link
• For example, station design already deploys many
  passive crime prevention features including
  target hardening control of access to
  facilities set rules natural surveillance
  formal surveillance etc.

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Suggested Additional Situational Crime Prevention

• Some natural surveillance not yet in place,
  e.g. Kwinana
• Other crime prevention should focus on steps to
  reduce frustration and assist compliance. In
  particular
• Onward transport from station
• Monitor whether provision of toilet facilities
  would be beneficial

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Think Tank 2

• Scenario Planning Expect the unexpected

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Scenario Planning - Overview

• Scenario Planning insight process for policy
  makers to provide decision support to policy
  makers
• Insight process differs from research to prove
  outcomes
• Insights in planning for the future
• Timescale over 10 years away
• Key features of scenarios possible and
  uncomfortable

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Scenario Planning - Purposes

• Help policy-makers to anticipate hidden
  weaknesses and inflexibilities
• Insights support future decision making
• Supports pre-response planning of strategic
  action

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Think Tank 2 Simplified plan

• 1. Identify stakeholders, driving forces, and
  trends
• 2. Key uncertainties
• 3. Build alternative scenarios
• 4. Develop crime reduction strategies

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Session 1 Preliminary

• Building scenarios for understanding crime in the
  Southern Rail corridor (10 years in future)
• Identify
• major stakeholders
• driving forces
• basic trends

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Session 1 Preliminary

• Building scenarios for understanding crime in the
  Southern Rail corridor (10 years in future)
• Identify
• major stakeholders
• driving forces
• basic trends

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Example Stakeholders

• Stakeholders are anyone likely to have an
  interest in crime and crime prevention, e.g.
• Police
• Crime syndicates
• PTA
• Senior citizen groups
• etc

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Example Driving Forces

• Driving forces are circumstances that have the
  capacity to affect crime, for example
• demographics,
• transport changes,
• employment location and opportunities
• housing location
• technology
• resource availability
• wealth distribution
• policy environment

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Example Trends

• Plausible trends are social changes that whose
  future changes are predictable, in the areas of
  
• social,
• technical,
• economic,
• environmental,
• educational,
• political and
• aesthetic (STEEEPA)

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Session 2 Key Uncertainties

• Identify key uncertainties Process
• Map driving forces on two axes
• uncertain/ predictable and important/unimportant
• Select only important and unpredictable driving
  forces.
• Identify extremes
• Check for unhappy powerful stakeholders or not in
  preferred situation
• How will powerful stakeholders actions influence
• Is it possible to create probable scenarios only
  considering the stakeholders?

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Example Two Axes
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Session 3 Scenarios

• Create 2-4 scenarios
• Based on important/unpredictable drivers and
  powerful stakeholders seeking their preferred
  equilibrium
• Focus on possible and uncomfortable scenarios
• Where appropriate put all positive drivers in one
  scenario and all negative drivers in another
  (avoid best case and worst case)
• Review scenarios do they make sense?
• Characterise each scenario by a catchy phrase

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Process

• Choose unpredictable drivers and powerful
  stakeholders (from session 2)
• Develop description of scenario (incorporate know
  trends)
• Catchy Title
• Write up

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Session 4 Strategies

• Explore strategies to reduce crime
• For each scenario identify
• The most likely effective strategies that match
  that scenario
• The pathway from current strategies

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Think Tank 2 Results

• Three scenarios were developed
• List

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Boom and Doom

• Explored the consequences for crime of an
  extended and accelerating boom and also of a
  sudden economic recession
• Examined positive and negative social
  consequences of an extended rapid boom and of
  sudden recession
• Concluded that an accelerated boom created
  adverse social conditions likely to increase
  crime and was not necessarily beneficial from a
  crime perspective
• Suggested for crime prevention some attempts
  should be made to manage rate of economic growth
  and social consequences

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Think Tank 2 Summary

• Big picture response
• Allows people to question previous assumptions
  about present and future
• Useful for long term proactive policy development
• Participant evaluation was positive and reported
  found the process useful

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Any Questions?
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To be continued

• Thank You