??????? ????????? (FMV: My Computer: home: My_Documents: Bforecast_Life.ppt) PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Title: ??????? ????????? (FMV: My Computer: home: My_Documents: Bforecast_Life.ppt)


1
???????????????? (FMV My Computer home
My_Documents Bforecast_Life.ppt)
  • ?? ??
  • ???????
  • ????? (????),
  • M. B. A. (????????????)
  • http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/

2
???????????(??????,???????????????)
  • ???????????lt???????????gt???????
  • ????????????/??
  • ????lt??????gt?,?????/??????Excel ????
  • ???????,????,??

3
???????????lt???????????gt???????
  • ?????????????,?????
  • ?????????(???????)?8? p.108 ??1
  • http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/intro_business/
    figs.htmlA1
  • ????,???,?????????????,??????
  • ?????(??)
  • ????
  • ??????(???????????)
  • ???,?????2??????
  • ??????(??/??)
  • ???????(??????????????)
  • ???,Plan - Do - See - Feedback ???????
  • http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/intro_business/
    figs.htmlA2

4
????????????/?? (1)
  • ??????2006(??18)? ????????????
  • http//www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/k-tyosa/k-t
    yosa06/index.html
  • ?2005?(??17?1?1???12?31?)?1?????????????563?8000??
    ???2.9??1989???????http//www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/
    saikin/hw/k-tyosa/k-tyosa06/2-1.html
  • ?2005???????????????????56.3?http//www.mhlw.go.
    jp/toukei/saikin/hw/k-tyosa/k-tyosa06/2-5.html
  • ????????? (Work Life Balance)??????
  • ??????????????????????????????34??????????????????
    ???

5
????????????/?? (2)
  • ????????/??
  • ??????????
  • ?????(???)/????(???)????(???)/2
  • ?????(?????,????)??
  • ???????????????????
  • http//www.fabnet2.mof.go.jp/
  • ?????????,??(?????,???????)??????????????
  • ??????????????????Windows OS?????????(Macintosh
    OS?????) ? InternetExplorer 5.01?????
    NetscapeNavigator 7.0 ?????

6
????????????/?? (2?)
  • ????????????
  • ???????????????(??)
  • http//www.meti.go.jp/statistics/index.html
  • ??????????NEEDS FinancialQuest(???)
  • ?????????????,???2????????,1?????PC??????
  • ????????????????????????? (PDF????)???????????(???
    ???????)http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/library/portal
    /org.html
  • ???????????????(??????????????????Excel????)
    http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/intro_business/
    Hideshima_REPORT1.xls

7
????????????/?? (3)
??????? ?????????? ??????????
???transportation2b.xls ?? ???
1???1??(??) Graph1a Graph2a
10????(????) Graph1a Graph2a
????realestate.xls ???? ????
1???1??
10????
??????foods-mfg.xls
1???1??
10????
?????????generalmachinery.xls
1???1??
10????
  • ???????????????
  • ?? 1997 2005 ????,????
  • ??,???????????? 2006 ?,???(?????????)
  • ???(???? ????)/????

8
????????????/?? (4)
  • ????,?????????(??????????) 1985-2006?
  • http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/intro_business/
    JpnsBusCycle.pdf
  • ???????2???(??????)4/1997-4/1999
  • ???????????????????
  • Asian currency crisis (that started in July,
    1997) -gt Russia (August, 1998) -gt Latin America
    -gt Indurstrial nations
  • ?????
  • Asian currency crisis http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/
    kojima/hirao/recent_asianstockpr.html
  • ???????http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/hirao/e
    xcel_highlights.html
  • ?????IT???????2000??4???-2002??1???

9
????????????/?? (5)
??????? ???????????
???transportation2b.xls
1???1?? Charts 30-32a
10???? Charts 20-22a
????realestate.xls
1???1?? Graphs 6-8
10???? Graphs 3-5
??????foods-mfg.xls ????
1???1??
10????
?????????generalmachinery.xls
1???1??
10????
  • ???????????,????(?????,????)??????
  • ??????
  • ???????????????
  • ??????????????????????????,????????????????
  • ????,?? 1997-2005????????

10
????lt??????gt?,?????/??????Excel
????(?????,?????????????????????????)
  • ??????????
  • ??(???????)????????
  • ????????????,????????,??????
  • ??????????,????
  • ???????,?????????,??
  • ????????(???????)??,?????????,??
  • ??????????,???????? lt???????????gt
  • ????????????2?????,4??????????
  • ?????????????
  • ??????,?????????,????????/???????
  • ??????,???,?????,?????
  • ???????????,???????????????
  • ????

11
??,???,?????????????
  • ??(???????)
  • 1997?(10??)??
  • 1997??2???(46?)??????????
  • 1997?7????????
  • 2005???
  • 2005??????????,??????
  • ??
  • 2006?(1??),???
  • ??????????????(2007?6??????)
  • ??(?????)????????

12
??????????,???????????????
  • ????,?????,???
  • ???(??)
  • ????(??)
  • ??????(?)
  • ?????????(?)
  • ????????,??????????(???????)
  • 10???????,????
  • 1??-1??????
  • ??
  • 100????????
  • 10?-100?????
  • 1?-10??????

13
???????
  • ???????
  • Excel(????)???
  • ????,??????
  • ???,???? (rough) ??
  • ???????????
  • ??(???)???
  • RATS(???)??,???
  • ???,????????????????,????????????????????????
  • ???????,?????????
  • ???,????? (sophisticated) ??

14
Excel ????,??????????? lt????1gt
  • ????????????
  • 8?????????2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 3, 5, 7
  • 2?????
  • (24)/2
  • (46)/2
  • (68)/2
  • (81)/2
  • (13)/2
  • ??
  • 4?????
  • (2468)/4
  • (4681)/4
  • (6813)/4
  • ??

15
Excel ????,??????????? lt????2gt
  • ?????????????
  • 8?????????2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 3, 5, 7
  • 2??????????
  • (24)/233????? 63??????
  • (46)/254????? 84??????
  • (68)/275????? 15??????
  • (81)/24.56????? 36??????
  • (13)/227????? 57??????
  • ??
  • 4??????????
  • (2468)/455????? 15??????
  • (4681)/44.756????? 36??????
  • (6813)/44.57????? 57??????
  • ??

16
Excel ????,??????????? lt????3gt
??????? ??????(??????????) ??????(??????????)
??? transportation2b.xls 2????? 4?????
1???1??(??) ????Chart10 ????Chart12
10????(?,??) ????Chart7 ????Chart9
???? realestate.xls ???? ????
1???1??(??)
10????(?,??)
?????? foods-mfg.xls
1???1??(??)
10????(?,??)
?????????generalmachinery.xls
1???1??(??)
10????(?,??)
17
Excel ????,??????????? lt????4gt
  • 2?,4????????,???????????
  • ???????????,?????????????????
  • ???????-???
  • ?????,???????(?????? MSE)????,???????????????
  • ?????????????????????????
  • ???(1??-1??)
  • 2? MSE 0.010
  • 4? MSE 0.005(???????????)
  • ???(10????)
  • 2? MSE 0.0072
  • 4? MSE 0.0056 (???????????)
  • ???????????(??????????????(10????))???
  • ????Excel???????????

18
??????,?????????,????????/??????? lt????1gt
  • ?????????/Charts ??????(2006?)???????????
  • ????????????????
  • ??????,???,?????,?????

19
??????,?????????,????????/??????? lt????2gt
  • ????,???????????,??????????????????
  • ????????????
  • ?????,????????????????
  • http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/intro_business
    /plan-do-seeV.gif ?
  • ???(See ????)???
  • ???,???????????????????,?????????

20
???? (1)
  • ?????????(??????)??????????????????? lt1gt
  • ??????????????????????????????????
  • ??(1997 2005 ?)????????????????
  • 4????/???????????????
  • ???????????????
  • ???????(??????????)??????????????
  • ??????????(????)????(??????????)?????(?????????)

21
???? (2)
  • ?????????(??????)??????????????????? lt2gt
  • ??????????????????????/?????????
  • ?????????????????????????????
  • ??1????????????????(transportation2b.xls)
  • ????????????????????????/?????????(2??4????????)
  • ?????????(Charts 10, 12)2005????????????2006?????
    ???????????????
  • ??????????????????????
  • ???????????(Charts 7, 9)2005????????????2006?????
    ???????????????
  • ??????????????????????

22
???? (3)
  • ?????????(??????)??????????????????? lt3gt
  • ??2???????????????????(foods-mfg.xls)
  • ????????????????????????/?????????(2??4????????)
  • ?????????(Charts 10, 12)2005????????????2006?????
    ???????????????
  • ??????????????????????
  • ???????????(Charts 7, 9)??

23
???? (4)
  • ???????
  • http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/intro_business/
    Refs.html
  • ?????????????????????????,?????????
  • http//www.seinan-gu.ac.jp/kojima/Extension/
  • ?????????,Bforecast_Life.ppt ?????????????????
  • ???????Windows??????????????,Macintosh????,
    Windows???????
  • ??????,?????????,????????kojima_at_seinan-gu.ac.jp
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