OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

1
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?
2
THE WAR ON TERROR

• U.S.-imposed rules of the game
• Ideological divisions left, right, center
• Prevalence of democratic discourse
• Focus on strategic options
• Unavailable alternatives
• Bolivarian dream of collective unity
• Rule of international law, organizations

3
1. TURN TO THE NORTH

• Vicente Fox (Mexico)
• Hopes for immigration reform
• NAFTA constraints
• Opposition throughout Latin America
• Comrades in the War on Terror
• Colombia
• Guatemala
• The FTA Club
• Chile special case
• Central America DR
• Peru
• Colombia?

4
2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY

• Brazil (Lula)
• Grandeza brasileira
• Role in Haiti
• Resistance to FTAA
• Venezuela (Chávez)
• ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas)
• International assistance programs
• Alliances with Cuba and pink tide countries
• Denunciations of Bush and USA
• Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

5
3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS?

• Cuba (Castros)
• Armed rebellion no longer a path
• Fatigue of revolutionary society
• Institutionalization of charisma
• Venezuela (Chávez)
• Socialism for the 21st Century
• Linkage to Cuba and Fidel
• Bolivia (Morales)
• Indigenismo
• Politics of ethnic reivindicación

6
4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY

• Brazil (Lula)
• WTO
• Group of 20 (a.k.a. 21)
• G3, G5
• Venezuela (Chávez)
• Non-Aligned Movement
• UN Security Council
• Petroleum exporters

7
5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE

• Europe
• Divisions over Iraq
• Concern about EU future
• FTAs with Mexico, Chile
• Distancing from/by Spain
• Asia
• Withdrawal of Japan
• Eruption of China fever
• PRC strategic partnerships with Brazil,
  Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico cooperative
  partnership with Chile, friendly and
  cooperative relations with Cuba

8
THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?