Statistical Downscaling

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Statistical Downscaling

• Cindy Bruyère

NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for
Atmospheric Research
NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is
partially supported by the Willis Research
Network and the Research Program to Secure Energy
for America
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Statistical Downscaling

• Look at at Genesis Potential
• Mainly focusing on NNRP
• CCSM (A2 and A1B scenarios)
• NRCM

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Genesis Potential Index
Emanuel and Nolan (2004) Camargo (2007)
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GP in NNRP Model
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GP distribution in NNRP
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GP - A Different Approach
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GP in MDR - NNRP vs CCSM
GP from CCSM (A2)
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Meridional Avg of GP (15-60W)
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Meridional Avg of GP (15-60W)
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Conclusions

• Looking at basin wide annual max or ASO average
  GP has little value
• GP (annual max and ASO average) in development
  region is a better measure of storm development
  in basin
• GP in Gulf has a poor correlation between storms
  that develop or move through the Gulf area
• GP in CCSM and NRCM runs indicate an increase in
  GP in the lower latitudes
• More work is needed to develop a better index in
  the Gulf

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CCSM - A1B
CCSM - A2
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