1
ICSTI Headquarters
International Conference Scientific and
Technological Innovation National Experience and
International Cooperation 29-31 May, 2013
Sphere of RD and innovation in Russia analysis
of the status and forecast of development Ms.
M. Motova, Head of Sector, Ms. ?. Chinaeva,
leading researcher Centre for Science Research
and Statistics (CSRS), Federal Institution
Research Institute Federal Research Center for
Project Evaluation and Consulting Services (SRI
FRCEC), Ministry of education and science,
Russian Federation
2
Main problems determining the condition of RD
human resources
1

1. Reduction in RD personnel
2. Decline of its quality
3. Widespread secondary employment
4. Decreased inflow of higher education graduates
5. Outflow of young personnel
6. Ageing of RD personnel
7. Decline of the prestige of research activities
8. Break in the succession of generations

3
Stages of reduction in RD personnel
2
Period Main characteristics of the stages
1991 1998 Drastic and implacable reduction in the number of RD personnel (2-fold) Secondary employment Brain drain
1999 2001 Reverse wave Enhancing personnel misbalance, including the ageing of the RD contingent, lack of young personnel, and structural violations Reducing number of medium-aged scientists
2002 present A new stage of the outflow of personnel from the ST sector New phenomena Emergence of numerous small and fragmentary short-term subjects with the participation of a great number of scientists Strengthening stratification among researchers New features of the mobility of personnel . Brain drain from the young contingent of scientists Some return of scientists from abroad (mostly programmers)
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Main problems of funding of ST activities
3
Lack of a complex scientifically based funding
system
Poor management of cash flows
Shortage of funds

• Consequences
• Crisis in human resources
• Insecurity of operation costs
• Low level of remuneration

• Consequences
• Lack of interrelationship between funding and
  output
• Impossibility to ensure full-value activities of
  RD institutions

5
Domestic RD expenditureDynamics and short-term
forecast
4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 esti-mate forecast forecast forecast
at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles) at current prices (billion roubles)
169,9 196,3 230,8 288,8 371,1 431,1 485,8 523,4 610,4 720,7 796,7 896,0 1000,2
of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices of the previous year at comparable prices
110,4 96,1 98,8 108,3 112,8 98,1 100,9 96,5 100,7 108,9 105,6 105,4 104,0
of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP
1,29 1,15 1,07 1,07 1,12 1,04 1,25 1,16 1,12 1,18 1,20 1,21 1,21
6
5
Gross domestic expenditure on RD by source of
funds 2011/2010

Gross domestic expenditure on RD 0,7
own funds of RD institutions 33,5
government -4,1
non-budget funds -25,0
business enterprise sector -0,02
higher education sector 2,7 times
private non-profit sector 1,5 times
funds from abroad 21,6
7
RD funds by main source of funding (increase
against the previous year at comparable prices)
6
Own funds of organizations
Budget funds
Funds from the business enterprise sector
8
Average salary in RD(2012 estimate,
2013-2015 forecast)
7
9
Economic parameters of the progress of the RD
sector 2015
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Scenarios Domestic expenditure as to GDP Salaries in RD Employment in RD
Inertial 1 1 1,3-1,5 times above the national average Reduction against 2007 by 20
Export-oriented (energy and raw materials) 1,9-2,including 1 due to private companies Nearly 90,000 roubles Number of researchers 348,2 thousand(2007 392,8 thousand)
Innovative 2,5-3,including 50 of total expenditure due to private companies 4-fold growth in real terms, and 1,5-2 times above the national average Growth against 2007 by 6
Osnovnye parametry sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo
razvitija Rossijskoj Federatsii do 20202030
godov/ Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitija.
Moscow, 2008.
10
Forecast for RD expenditure
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As of GDP
2015 as to 2011 I 1.1 II 3.2 III 4.8 IV
1.3
1276,1
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RD personnel and average salary forecast 2015
10
Inertial scenario Export-oriented (energy and raw materials) scenario Innovative scenario Extrapolation forecast
RD personnel (thousand) 2015 as to 2011 665,5 87,4 705,4 92,7 847,3 111,3 716,0 97,4
Average salary (thousand) 2015 to 2011 at comparable prices (-fold) 70,8 1,9 87,7 2,4 134,5 3,7 46,4 1,3
2011 RD personnel (thousand) 735,3 Average
salary (thousand) 28,4
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Growth of domestic RD expenditure by source of
funds (2015 to 2011 at comparable prices)
11
Inertial scenario Export-oriented (energy and raw materials) scenario Innovative scenario Extrapolation forecast
Total 1,1 3,2 4,8 1,3
Budget funds 1,1 1,5 2,3 1,2
Own funds of RD institutions 1,3 3,8 5,7 1,5
Funds of organisations in the business enterprise sector 1,2 7,6 11,4 1,3
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Intramural RD expenditure by source of funds
12
2015
Inertial scenario
Export-oriented (energy and raw materials)
scenario
Innovative scenario
Extrapolation forecast
14
Forecast for appropriations for ST
13
Indicators Scenario 2015 compared to 2011 (-fold)
Appropriations for civil ST I II III IV 1,6 1,4 2,1 1,1
2012 compared to 2008 (-fold) 1,4
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Problem Deformation of the age-specific
structure of RD personnel and ageing of research
teams
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Researchers by age group (per cent)
Year below 29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 and over Total
2000 10,6 15,6 26,1 26,9 20,8 100
2002 13,5 13,8 23,9 27,0 21,8 100
2004 15,3 13,0 21,9 27,8 22,0 100
2006 17,0 13,1 19,0 27,8 23,1 100
2008 17,6 14,2 16,7 26,3 25,2 100
2010 19,3 16,2 14,7 24,0 25,8 100
Including
Doctors of science 0,1 1,8 10,3 28,4 59,4 100
Candidates of science 4,8 16,8 16,9 26,1 35,2 100
Source calculated by CSRS basing on Russias
Rosstat data
Despite some increase in the number of
researchers aged below 40, speaking of it as a
steady trend (especially during the crisis) is
still too early.
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Calculation of specialities rating based on an
expert survey
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• The rating was calculated on the basis of
• the proportion of experts who had mentioned the
  demand for training of candidates/doctors of
  science for this speciality in the total number
  of experts believing that this speciality is
  related to a surveyed priority area
• an average mark reflecting the relationship of
  this speciality with a surveyed priority area.

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Forecast for graduates from postgraduate and
doctoral studies with dissertations defended by
field of science and technology
16
Graduates with dissertations defended 2010 Forecast for graduates with dissertations defended2015 Growth rate for graduates with dissertations defended(2015 to 2010), per cent
Postgraduate studies Postgraduate studies Postgraduate studies Postgraduate studies
Total 8831 11426 129,4
Including fields of science and technology
Law 560 779 139,1
Biology 404 515 127,4
Agriculture 247 312 126,4
Pharmacy 33 42 126,2
Veterinary 81 102 125,8
Engineering 1652 2069 125,2
Physics and mathematics 376 469 124,7
Medicine 1087 1307 120,2
Chemistry 244 276 114,4
Doctoral studies Doctoral studies Doctoral studies Doctoral studies
Total 297 376 127,7
Including fields of science and technology
Agriculture 7 15 207,3
Medicine 13 23 174,2
Law 10 16 164,3
Engineering 71 91 128,7
Chemistry 12 14 120,3
Physics and mathematics 24 29 119,8
Biology 8 9 112,5
Veterinary - - -
Pharmacy - - -
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Forecast for enrolment of postgraduate and
doctoral studentsby field of science and
technology
17
Number of students in 2010 Forecast for the number of students in 2015 Growth of the number of students(2015 to 2010), per cent
Postgraduate studies Postgraduate studies Postgraduate studies Postgraduate studies
Total 147674 156335 105,9
Including fields of science and technology
Law 11770 13834 117,5
Pharmacy 382 448 117,3
Engineering 34324 36588 106,6
Medicine 10368 10898 105,1
Veterinary 1103 1156 104,8
Agriculture 3690 3850 104,3
Biology 6861 7083 103,2
Chemistry 3098 3162 102,1
Physics and mathematics 7157 7106 99,3
Doctoral studies Doctoral studies Doctoral studies Doctoral studies
Total 4242 4114 97,0
Including fields of science and technology
Veterinary 11 17 154,5
Law 111 128 115,3
Agriculture 113 113 100,0
Biology 167 164 98,2
Engineering 1100 1064 96,7
Medicine 232 221 95,3
Physics and mathematics 300 274 91,3
Pharmacy 8 7 87,5
Chemistry 127 112 88,2
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Thanks for attention