Is Timing Everything?

1
Is Timing Everything?
What does it take to win?
By Anna Curtis
Analysis (graph to the right) This graph
indicates the proportion of actor winnings over
actor nominations compared to the year. The years
that have zero did not have a significant amount
of actor nominations in one film during that
year. This graph seems to suggest that it was
more common years ago for many actors in one film
to be nominated and win awards. According to this
graph only the years 54, 57, 63, 67, 74,
76, and 02 had significant actor nominations in
a single film. Chicago received 4 actor
nominations, only winning one in the 2002 Oscar
Award ceremony.
Study When it comes to the Oscars, do the
chances of a movie or actor winning have anything
to do with the year its nominated? Were movies
more likely to win all of their nominations in
the 40s than they are now? Are an actors chances
of winning affected by the number of actor
nominations received by an individual film? By
comparing the proportion of the number of
wins/number of nominations by the year the film
was a candidate for an Oscar, I discovered
whether or not the award year has any correlation
with the amount of winnings the film received. I
also studied if actors chances of winning had
anything to do to with the number of nominations
their film received...
Analysis (graph to the left) As you can see in
the graph above, there doesnt seem to be much
relation between the year a movie was in the
running for an Oscar and whether or not it
actually won an award. While the graph may be
slightly skewed to the right, there are still
movies such as The Last Emperor, which was in the
award ceremony in 1987 and won all 9 of its 9
nominations. Gigi, another blockbuster hit, won
all 9 of its nominations, however, this occurred
in 1958, a good 29 years prior to The Last
Emperors sweep. When conducting a correlation
comparison between the two, it is shown that the
correlation between Wins/Nominations and the Year
of the award ceremony, the correlation
coefficient is -.294 with a p value of .109. This
clearly demonstrates that there is little
association between the year of the award
ceremony and the number of awards won.
Two Sample T-Test and Confidence Interval Two
sample T for total win/total nom vs actor
win/actor nom N Mean StDev
SE Mean total wi 11 0.414 0.189
0.057 actor wi 11 0.309 0.231
0.070 95 CI for mu total wi - mu actor wi (
-0.084, 0.293) T-Test mu total wi mu actor wi
(vs not ) T 1.16 P 0.26 DF 19
The two sample T -Test above tested the
relationship between the mean proportions of
total wins/total nominations vs actor wins/actor
nominations. With a p value so high as .26 it is
shown that there is not enough evidence to reject
the null hypothesis which stated that the mean
proportion of total wins/total nominations is
equal to the mean proportion of actor wins/actor
nominations.
Descriptive Statistics Variable N
Mean Median TrMean StDev SE
Mean Wins 31 7.742
7.000 7.593 1.570 0.282 Year
31 1970.3 1970.0
1970.3 18.8 3.4 Nominati
31 11.290 11.000 11.296 1.811
0.325 Wins/Nom 31 0.6986
0.7000 0.6950 0.1522
0.0273 Variable Minimum Maximum
Q1 Q3 Wins 6.000
12.000 7.000 8.000 Year
1939.0 2002.0 1954.0
1987.0 Nominati 8.000 15.000
10.000 13.000 Wins/Nom 0.4286
1.0000 0.5833 0.8000

Descriptive Statistics Variable N
Mean Median TrMean StDev SE
Mean Total Noms 11 11.455 12.000
11.444 1.572 0.474 Total Wins
11 4.909 6.000 5.111
2.427 0.732 Actor noms 11
4.818 5.000 4.889 0.405
0.122 Actor Wins 11 1.455 1.000
1.444 1.036 0.312 Variable
Minimum Maximum Q1 Q3 Total
No ms 9.000 14.000 10.000
13.000 Total Wins 0.000 8.000
4.000 6.000 Actor noms 4.000
5.000 5.000 5.000 Actor Wins
0.000 3.000 1.000 2.000
Top Movies used in this study (in order of most
winnings) Ben-Hur 59, Titanic 97, West Side
Story 61, Gigi 58, The Last Emperor 87, The
English Patient 96, Gone With the Wind 39, From
Here to Eternity 53, On the Waterfront 54, My
Fair Lady 64, Cabaret 72, Gandhi 82, Amadeus
84, Going My Way 44, The Best Years of Our
Lives 46, The Bridge on the River Kwai 57,
Shakespeare in Love 98, Dances With Wolves 90,
Schindlers List 93, Out of Africa 85, Star
Wars 77, The Sting 73, Patton 70, Lawrence of
Arabia 62, All About Eve 50, Chicago 02, An
American in Paris 51, Forrest Gump 94, The
Godfather Part II 74, A Man of All Seasons 66,
Mrs. Miniver 42, A Place in the Sun 51 Did
not win Best Picture
The movies used in the above graph, the two
sample T test and the descriptive statistics to
the left were the films in the history of the
Oscars who have received the highest number of
actor nominations Mrs. Miniver 42 Actor Noms
5, Actor Wins 2 All About Eve 50 Noms 5, Wins
1 A Streetcar Named Desire 51 Noms 4, Wins
3 From Here to Eternity 53 Noms 5, Wins 2 On
the Waterfront 54 Noms 5, Wins 2 Peyton Place
57 Noms 5, Wins 0 Tom Jones 63 Noms 5, Wins
0 Bonnie and Clyde 67 Noms 5, Wins 1 The
Godfather Part II 74 Noms 5, Wins 1 Network
76 Noms 5, Wins 3 Chicago 02 Noms 4, Wins 1
Conclusion Based on the information collected,
the graphs presented, correlation coefficients
and two sample t tests, there does not seem to be
any relationship between the year of a film and
the results of the Oscar award ceremony. Films
made today have as much a chance of receiving
many nominations and winning awards as they did
back in the 1940s. A similar situation is true
for actors. While it seems in the graph that it
has become less frequent for many actors in one
film to be nominated the proportion of actor wins
over actor nominations is not associated with the
proportions of total wins over total nominations,
therefore if a film is lucky enough to get many
actors nominated, that does not seem to affect
its chances of winning or losing any particular
award. From the data presented here, the Oscars
appear to be a rather fair ceremony so all of you
actors and actresses out there, stay confident,
your chance is just as good as any...