THORPEX Activities

1
THORPEX Activities

• Sue Gray and John Methven
• University of Reading

2
THORPEX mission statement

• THORPEX (The Observing System Research and
  Predictability Experiment)
• A 10-year research and development programme to
  accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day
  to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts and the
  utilisation of weather products for the benefit
  of society, the economy and the environment.

3
WORLD WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAMME Research focused on improving forecast skill for high-impact weather and benefiting member states through advancing the utilization of weather products and promoting the application of new techniques.

THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) A 10-year research and development programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts and the utilzation of weather products for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment.
Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research Promotes, organizes and/or endorses end-to-end weather research and development projects (RDPs) including efforts to advance the understanding of weather processes, improve forecasting techniques and increase the utility of forecast information with an emphasis on high-impact weather.
Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research Identifies and supports the research initiatives of NMHSs in tropical countries, generally including collaboration with groups in universities or research institutes, which are likely to lead to social and economic benefits, particularly in the prevention of disasters during severe weather associated with tropical cyclone and monsoon rainfall anomalies.
Working Group on Nowcasting Promotes and aids the implementation of nowcasting in the WWRP framework and within NMSs and among their end-users, including the potential use of numerical modelling and assimilation of very high resolution data.
Joint Working Group on Verification Facilitates the development and application of improved diagnostic verification methods to assess and enable improvement of the quality of weather forecasts, including forecasts from numerical weather and climate models.
Working Group on Societal and Economic Applications Advances the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services and reviews and assists in the development and promotion of societal and economic-related demonstration projects.
THORPEX programme
Joint Working Group on Numerical
Experimentation (WGNE) -- physcal processes
Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Re
search
Working Group on Societal and Economic Applicati
ons
World Weather Research Programme
Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System
Expert Team on Weather Modification
Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research
Joint Working Group on Verification
Working Group on Nowcasting
Contact wwrp_at_wmo.int
4
THORPEX Organisational Structure
IPO/ICSC/EC IPO/ICSC/EC Regional Committees Africa Asia Europe North America Southern Hemisphere Regional Committees Africa Asia Europe North America Southern Hemisphere
IPO/ICSC/EC IPO/ICSC/EC Regional Committees Africa Asia Europe North America Southern Hemisphere Regional Committees Africa Asia Europe North America Southern Hemisphere

Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group PDP WG Predictability and Dynamical Processes Working Group PDP WG Data Assimilationand Observing Strategies Working Group DAOS WG Data Assimilationand Observing Strategies Working Group DAOS WG Global Interactive Forecasting System THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble Working Group GIFS-TIGGE WG Global Interactive Forecasting System THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble Working Group GIFS-TIGGE WG Global Interactive Forecasting System THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble Working Group GIFS-TIGGE WG
With links to the WWRP SERA and the Verification
WGs
5
Predictability and Dynamical Processes working
group PDP WG

• 8 interest groups
• The role of Rossby wave dynamics in
  predictability
• The large scale response of the atmosphere to
  organized tropical convection (e.g. MJO)
• Predictability of tropical cyclones and of their
  ET
• The impact of ET on the downstream mid-latitude
  predictability
• Ensemble prediction
• Atmospheric blocking, low-frequency variability
  and their role in predictability
• The impact of moist processes on dynamical
  processes and predictability in the extra-tropics
• AMMA and further aspects of tropical-extratropical
  interactions

6
Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies
working group DAOS WG

• Impact of observations
• Guidance for observation campaigns and the
  configuration of the Global Observing system
• Assessment of the value of targeted observations
• Evaluation of observation impact with different
  systems
• Improving the use of satellite data
• Use of sensitivity information to do adaptive
  data selection

7
GIFS-TIGGE WG

• THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
• Collating operational ensemble forecasts from 10
  global forecasting centres
• Develop the concept of a Global Interactive
  Forecasting System (GIFS).
• Enhance international collaboration on ensemble
  prediction for high impact weather.
• Collaboration between operational centres and
  universities
• Develop theory and practice of multi-model
  ensembles.
• Develop products based on TIGGE

8
New projects

• WMO commission for atmospheric sciences (CAS) is
  proposing new THORPEX projects on
• Polar prediction research to improve
  understanding of the impact of polar processes on
  polar weather, the assimilation of data in polar
  regions and the prediction of high impact weather
  over polar regions (links to IPY-THORPEX)
• Seasonal to sub-seasonal prediction

9
Major THORPEX Field Campaigns

• ATReC 2003 observations targeted in sensitive
  regions
• GFDex 2007 investigation of the role that
  Greenland plays in distorting atmospheric flow
  over and around it affecting local and remote
  weather systems
• ETReC 2007/COPS multi-scale observation of
  convective events
• IPY-THORPEX 2008 high-impact weather in the
  Arctic region
• T-PARC 2008 dynamics and predictability in
  subtropical and midlatitude Pacific regions
• YOTC 2008-2010 year of tropical convection.
  Global prediction, integrated observations and
  research (attribution, modelling and theoretical
  studies.
• T-NAWDEX-PILOT 2009 dynamics and predictability
  on the North Atlantic Waveguide
• DIAMET 2011/2012

10
THORPEX activity in Europe

• European plan has been distinguished by its
  absence but does now exist!
• Research consortium has been funded in Germany
  (PANDOWAE)
• In UK, the Met Office and ECMWF are part of TIGGE
  and clearly have interests in the THORPEX aims
  but Universities have been slow to be involved.
• THORPEX-UK start-up meeting was held in Oct 2008.
• THORPEX European regional meeting May 2011
• GEOWOW GEOSS Interoperability for weather, ocean
  and water. Enhave accessibility of TIGGE.
• EUROSIP multi-model seasonal forecasting system
  consisting of three independent coupled systems
  ECMWF, Met Office and Météo-France all
  integrated in a common framework.
• PREVASSEMBLE Ensemble methods for prediction and
  data assimilation. Aim to ensemble methods and to
  develop their use both for data assimilation and
  numerical prediction. LMD/ Météo-France

11
Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems
in the Atlantic-European Sector
Motivated but not constrained by operational
needs. Collaboration with EUCOS, DWD, ECMWF,
Meteo-France
DFG funded Research Group PANDOWAE
2008-2014 4 Million Euros
PANDOWAE
12
PANDOWAE projects

• The impact of extratropical transition on
  downstrem predictability
• The dynamics and predictability of Mediterranean
  cyclones leading to high impact weather
• Role of diabatic processes in the dynamics and
  predictability of extratropical cyclones
• Sensitivity of severe weather over Europe to
  upstream wavetrains and related processes
• Variability and extremes of poleward breaking
  Rossby waves over the North Atlantic-European
  region
• Large-scale and local control of severe weather
  Towards adaptive ensemble forecasting
• Adaptive observing strategies for active
  airborne remote sensing instruments
• New projects on blocking, Rossby wave guide and
  projects moving towards the subseasonal scale

13
T-NAWDEX
THORPEX- North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream
Impact Experiment. Status as of June 2011 Has
been proposed by the THORPEX working group
Predictability and Dynamical Processes for the
European THORPEX Science Plan. Andreas
Dörnbrack, Andreas Schäfler, Ulrich Corsmeier,
Heini Wernli DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, ETH Zürich,
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Its
overarching scientific goal is to investigate in
detail the physical processes that are primarily
responsible for degradation in 1-7 day forecast
skill in global prediction systems and of their
representation in NWP models.
14
T-NAWDEX

• T-NAWDEX will have
• - experimental (international field experiment)
  and
• theoretical/diagnostic/modelling
• research components which investigate the
  different phases of wave guide disturbances
• Triggering of wave guide disturbances by
  different dynamical processes
• Downstream evolution of the disturbances along
  the wave guide
• Downstream impact of wave guide disturbances over
  Europe and North Africa
• Funded national activities exist in the UK
  Germany/Switzerland DIAMET and PANDOWAE

15
Current experimental status

• German HALO research aircraft is not accessible
  for our community in the next years for different
  reasons ...
• Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IPA) arranged
  to keep the DLR FALCON research aircraft for the
  next years - opens the possibility to conduct
  field campaigns with THORPEX focus
• interest at IPA, ETH Zürich and KIT triggered
  initiative to deploy FALCON in collaboration with
  DIAMET and/or HYMEX in 2012 "T-NAWDEX-Falcon"
• scientific focus on water vapour transport and
  on cloud processes within weather systems
  involving condensation of water vapour and latent
  heat release and fluxes in the atmospheric
  boundary layer
• Instrumentation
• water vapour lidar not available any more for the
  FALCON, wind lidar could be installed
• most probably in-situ sensors to observe
  thermodynamic properties of the air and turbulent
  quantities plus dropsondes
• check the possibility of a tracer experiment for
  warm conveyor belts

16
Future experimental plans

• explore possibilities to access in-situ
  instruments and DLR resources for conducting a
  THORPEX field campaign (including a tracer
  experiment) in September-November 2012 (mid July
  2011)
• common project meeting involving KIT, ETH and DLR
  and interested external partners from DIAMET and
  HYMEX (autumn 2011)
• science plan
• EUFAR (European facility for airborne research)
  proposals for additional flight hours (interest
  by Univ Vienna and Croatian colleagues)
• fine-tuning with DIAMET and HYMEX
• T-NAWDEX discussion with US partners ongoing. A
  cross-Atlantic T-NAWDEX experiment could occur in
  2014 since the US and Canada are now interested.

17
T-NAWDEX pilot

• Developed as a pilot study for T-NAWDEX (THORPEX-
  North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact
  Experiment) which has been proposed by the
  THORPEX working group Predictability and
  Dynamical Processes for the European THORPEX
  Science Plan.
• Brief project with flight-time only funded (Lead
  PI Ian Renfrew).
• 3 flights in November 2009 trying out flight
  plans to identify influence of diabatic processes
  on mesoscale structure within growing cyclones.
• 1. 3/11/09 intense cold front case
• 2. 13/11/09 attempted two flights ahead and
  behind frontal cyclone, crossing WCB both times
  to infer ??. First flight crossed intense warm
  front and WCB dropping sondes. Forced to abandon
  second flight due to malfunction.
• 3. 24/11/09 Box within marine BL either side of
  cold front plus transect across WCB behind. PV
  source/sink analysis has also been performed for
  this case.

18
DIAMET

• DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in
  ExTratropical storms
• Consortium led by Geraint Vaughan (NCAS-weather
  director) with Methven, Parker and Renfrew as
  other lead PIs Met Office partners. Response to
  NERC Natural Hazards theme action call.
• Overarching theme is the role of diabatic
  processes in generating mesoscale PV and moisture
  anomalies in cyclones, and the consequences of
  those anomalies for weather forecasts.
• Three-pronged approach
• Determining influence of diabatic processes on
  mesoscale structure (PV tracers partitioned by
  process)
• Improving parameterisation of convection (in
  cyclone environment), air-sea fluxes and
  microphysics.
• Using feature-tracking within the Met Office
  ensemble prediction system to quantify the
  predictability of mesoscale features and the
  dependence of the skill of weather forecasts
  (precipitation and winds) on mesoscale features.

19
WP A Mesoscale structure and diabatic effects

• Two flight campaigns with U.K. FAAM (Facility for
  Airborne Atmospheric Measurement) aircraft
  spanning Autumn 2011 3 month period of
  opportunity with 2 week Intensive Observing
  Period. Late summer 2012 2 month period
• ? possible link with T-NAWDEX/ HYMEX
  campaigns?

• New streams of Doppler radar data from Met Office
  Radar group and data assimilation for
  convection-resolving model (JCMM)
• Nested Met Office operational forecasts at
  varying resolution (currently 40km global, 12km
  LAM, 1.5km UK)
• Hindcasts at varying resolution using tracers to
  partition the effects of model processes on
  heating and PV (directly following on from the
  work presented here).

20
WP B Parameterisation of key processes

• Detailed examination of convection
  parameterisation using the PV tracer diagnostic
  adapted to decompose the moisture field into
  contributions from different parameteriation
  schemes
• Can existing parameterisation be adapted to treat
  elevated convection?
• Choice of closure timescale for embedded
  convection
• Decomposition of bulk mass flux detrainment
• Quantify contribution of surface and boundary
  layer fluxes to mesoscale PV anomalies and storm
  evolution
• Measure microphysical properties and use them to
  derive latent heating estimates and improve
  parameterisations.

21
WP C Predictability and DA for high resolution
forecasts
Hewson and Titley, 2010

• Quantify forecast statistics for objectively
  identified mesoscale features in the Met Office
  ensemble prediction system (MOGREPS).
• Measure distances between forecasts in terms of
  feature tracks characterise dependence of
  precipitation forecast skill stratified by
  mesoscale feature type.
• Use short-range convection-resolving ensemble,
  perturbing parameterisations (with and without
  stochastic terms) to disentangle model error from
  initial condition error.
• Use ensemble forecasts to assess the nature of
  balance between variables at high resolution and
  influence on forecast error statistics.

22

• The end
• Thank you for your attention