?????

1
??????????????????????????

• ????
• ????????????????
• ????????

2
??2???????????????

• 4???????
• ?????????????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????
• ???-???????????????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????

3
????????????????
4
??2???????????????

• 4???????
• ?????????????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????
• ???-???????????????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????

5
?????????????????????
130ppm
??????4???
?????????????????????????
6
?????CO2?????(2100?)
ugC/m2/s
(???????????????????????????)
7
??????????(2100?)
(???????????????????????????)
??????
8
C4MIP???IPCC????
(Coupled Climate - Carbon Cycle Model
Intercomparison Project)
Friedlingstein et al. (2005, JC, in press)
9
???????
10
?????CO2?????
Obs. (Keeling et al., 1989) -gt time lag 1yr
Model -gt time lag 2yr
11
??????(LUC)????????
?????
??100???? 49.2 Pg C
????
100??????(1900-1999)
12
20??????????????????
NPP?HR???10???? NEP???? ????????? LUC????????
??????????? ?LUC????
NPP
HR
????????? (Pg C yr-1)
NEP
NEP - LUC efflux
year
???? NPP(?????), HR(????????), NEP(??????) and
NEP-LUCefflux(???????????)
13
??CO2???????
Table. ?????? (1980-1989 PgC/yr)
????
??? Houghton (2003)
Total
???? 5.39 5.40
?? -2.16 -1.70
????? -0.53 -2.40
?????? 0.56 2.00
Total 3.26 3.30
???
??
??
Total????????? ?????CO2??????? ????????????????
? ????????????
??????CO2?? (ppmv 1959-1999)
14
???? DGVM???
??????????????? ????????????? ??????????????
??????????????????????????????????
?????????????(_at_???)
Preliminary result
1??
30??
100??
??? ?????
??? ?????
?????
???????
??????
15
????
??????1(???????????????)
SEIB-DGVM???
????? (1) ?????????????????????????
(2) ??????????????????????
16
??????2 (NPP???)
SEIB-DGVM???
17?????????(IGBP)
(g C / m2 / year)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
???????????????????????????SEIB-DGVM?????????????
??????????????????
17
??2???????????????

• 4???????
• ?????????????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????
• ???-???????????????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????

18
??????? (CHASER)

• ???????53 ? (ozone, NOx, etc.)
• ??? 20 km ??????????
• ????????

19
????????IPCC-AR4???????????????????
? ??????????????
Gauss et al. 2005
20
Future Simulation of O3/ CH4/ Aerosols on ES
Temporal Evolution Ozone Strato./Tropo.
Exchange (TgO3/yr)
Temporal Evolution Tropospheric Ozone Burden
(TgO3)
21
CHASER ???????????

• CHASER ????? T42L80 surface80km
• ??????????(?????) ??????????(ClOx and
  BrOx) based on the CCSR/NIES stratospheric
  chemistry GCM HCl, ClONO2, HOCl, Cl2,
  ClNO2, CCl4, CFC11, CFC12, CFC113,
  HCFC22, CH3CCl3, CH3Cl (ex., Cl-species)
• ??????????? PSCs????????
  Nagashima et al, 2001/ Sessler et al, 1996
• ??????????? Kurokawa et al., 2005 ???????
  (FRCGC ES-model development)
  parameterization with high resolution simulations
  (T213L250)
• ??????????? Takigawa et al., 2003

22
??2???????????????

• 4???????
• ?????????????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????
• ???-???????????????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????

23
????????-???????-
12?-2?
6?-8?
??
???
24
???????????
4??????3? ??????? ???? ?????????
25
??????

• ????????????MPI?????????????????????(??80?8)?
• 1?????????????????
• ????????????????????10?????????????????????

?? ?? ???? ?
MPI?? 4 2 2870 sec 100
Hybrid?? 8 2 1688 sec 58
Hybrid?? 16 2 1191 sec 41
26
??2???????????????

• 4???????
• ?????????????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????
• ???-???????????????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????

27
????????? ????????
??????
???????
28
1990 ??????? at 3000
29
????????????

• MIROC mid ? IcIES 20km (off line)

IPCC AR4 run ??????????????????????
????
???????
????
???????
????????????????
A1B Sfix
A1B Tfix
30
?????????????
?????????????????

• ?????????????
• ????????????????????

• ??????????????????
• ???4??????????
• ???????????????

?????????????????????????????????
31
??2???????????????

• 4???????
• ?????????????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????
• ???-???????????????????
• ??????????
• ?????????????

32
???-???????????????????
????? ???
???
H2O??
????
???? ?????
?????
33
???????????
???????????????(NICAM)??????
?????????
3.5 km ???
????6???
34
??120km?? ? ??12km??

• ????????????
• ????????
• e.g. R6400km ? 640km
• ???????????????
• ?????????????
• Schmidt ??
• ??????????

??12km?? ? ???1.2km??
35
Preliminary Results
wind shear
???????????
??3?????
????????????
???????????????????????
???????????????????
36
?????????(1)

• ??????????????
• ??????????

???????
???????

• IPCC ????????????????????????
• ???????????????

???????

• ?????????????????

???????

• ????????????????????(C4MIP?IPCC????)
• ???????????20????????????????

37
?????????(2)

• ????-????????????
• ?????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????
• ??????????????????IPCCLA???????????

38
?????

• ???????????????
• ???-??????????
• ????????????????20?????????
• SEIB-DGVM??????????????
• ??-??????????????(300???)
• NICAM???????????????2K??